7 ms·

The "iphone" of the electric car still isn't here. I've been saying it's coming soon for a while, cars that are so vastly superior to gas cars that it re-frame

The "iphone" of the electric car still isn't here. I've been saying it's coming soon for a while, cars that are so vastly superior to gas cars that it re-frames the gas car as being legacy technology just as the smartphone from apple finally got the consumer interested in smartphones and view flip-phones as inferior. I think however, it's going to come from left-field (not from Tesla) and for the first time I'm tossing a date on it, 24-36 months: The key is the bizarre three-wheeled electric cars from micro-manufacturers like aptera, ampere, nobe, elio, arcimoto, electra meccanica, malcolm bricklin, sondors, and vanderhall. They are offering low priced commuter vehicles with really low drag coefficients, easy parking, and when combined with solar panels embedded in the body (which I know of 3 manufacturers that are releasing cars this year that will do this) you'll get effectively a "worry free" vehicle; it charges more than you usually drive it, needs very little maintenance and repair, and is easy to maneuver. I think Geoffrey Moore's diagram on this one is starting this year and if the next gen of these funky cars are as "practical" as I think them to be, I think the chasm will be jumped around 2023/2024. Right, this sounds unrealistic now. Obviously cars like this https://www.aptera.us/product-page/250-miles-per-charge https://www.aptera.us/product-page/250-miles-per-charge aren't going to see mainstream pickup right this second. But this is like if we were in 2003, and I used the bulky, nerdy clunky HP iPAQ 4150 (https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51BH3PKCZ7L._AC_.jpg https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51BH3PKCZ7L...) and argued that these computer-phones would eventually be a mainstream device and be a complete replacement of desktops and laptops for many people. Obviously unrealistic then. You have to iterate in your head. For instance, take the solar e-trike, make a modular design like how ebussy has (http://ebussy.de/ http://ebussy.de/), inductive charging like what bmw and witricity are working on or what's been deployed in sweden (https://www.smartroadgotland.com/ https://www.smartroadgotland.com/) you know, the next steps that everything gets crossing the chasm, you have to do the act of mentally imagining putting these things together, I can see this future coming together. Also you add the cost trajectories of batteries and solar on to it, and you'll realize this is like anything else in the innovators dilemma: the capacity is moving up, the price is moving down, steadily, year on year and you're maybe looking at say, a honda-civic level rated e-trike car at say $4,000 in 2030 that can get modular addons and be inductively recharged while driving. I know this sounds as wacky as bill gates home of the future from the 1990s where he talked to a special "assistant computer" in his living room to do things like order a cab or the carputer project MS ran to have an in-dash navigation system with location and map info in the early 90s ... it all looks crazy until it happens.

africanboy 6y ago
> got the consumer interested in smartphones and view flip-phones as inferior except cellular phones were vastly better devices for their purpose. smartphones are better only for content networks (FB and similar) and App stores Meanwhile my Nokia 7650 in 2002 was already doing everything I need today, but it also worked when it rains (most smartphones touch screens get confused by water) and battery lasted days, not hours. It also survived an infinite number of falls. We see them as "old" only because mobile connectivity was in its infancy and HW has become much more powerful in a small time frame. But I would trade my actual smartphone for a phone of that era with 4g connection, a physical keyboard and a modern screen immediately.
erulabs 6y ago
For whatever it’s worth, everyone who has driven my model 3 immediately wants one and it has inspired 4 purchases so far. Even the most EV hating Porsche fan was converted. It has been described to me by those friends and family and by myself exactly as “an iPhone moment”. I know HN is usually quite hard on Tesla, but I do disagree - and it has nothing to do with autopilot. I feel like the sales numbers also make the case that the iPhone of electric cars absolutely is here: it’s the 3 and the Y.
- kristopolous 6y ago
  I'm a big fan of Tesla, bought their stock in 2010, drove or ridden in almost every model, I still don't think it makes the cut. It's a bridge tech like the CFL lightbulb or the blackberry. Not that musk can't push it forward, just not with the current lineup I've worked in tech focussed on alternative vehicle adoption for 5 years now. This weird left-field long shot thing I'm talking about is the first time I can see it actually happening. I know it's hair brained and wacky sounding, but I think it's also correct. Taiwan and India have a huge scooter culture for commuters on the same logic I'm banking on here. Conventional 4 doors aren't going away, but there's a large downstream opportunity following all the traditional dynamics - it's pretty by the book, even down to the dismissive attitude, especially by me. I'm about to get 100 or so on the road in car-sharing by years end so I'll know a lot more by then. I don't know if it will work without the other pieces. Still trying to pull the inductive charging together and once aptera is actually ready to ship, I'll be getting solar ones out too. Odds are murky, but eh, let's do it anyway.

africanboy 6y ago

> got the consumer interested in smartphones and view flip-phones as inferior except cellular phones were vastly better devices for their purpose. smartphones are better only for content networks (FB and similar) and App stores Meanwhile my Nokia 7650 in 2002 was already doing everything I need today, but it also worked when it rains (most smartphones touch screens get confused by water) and battery lasted days, not hours. It also survived an infinite number of falls. We see them as "old" only because mobile connectivity was in its infancy and HW has become much more powerful in a small time frame. But I would trade my actual smartphone for a phone of that era with 4g connection, a physical keyboard and a modern screen immediately.

erulabs 6y ago

For whatever it’s worth, everyone who has driven my model 3 immediately wants one and it has inspired 4 purchases so far. Even the most EV hating Porsche fan was converted. It has been described to me by those friends and family and by myself exactly as “an iPhone moment”. I know HN is usually quite hard on Tesla, but I do disagree - and it has nothing to do with autopilot. I feel like the sales numbers also make the case that the iPhone of electric cars absolutely is here: it’s the 3 and the Y.

kristopolous 6y ago
I'm a big fan of Tesla, bought their stock in 2010, drove or ridden in almost every model, I still don't think it makes the cut. It's a bridge tech like the CFL lightbulb or the blackberry. Not that musk can't push it forward, just not with the current lineup I've worked in tech focussed on alternative vehicle adoption for 5 years now. This weird left-field long shot thing I'm talking about is the first time I can see it actually happening. I know it's hair brained and wacky sounding, but I think it's also correct. Taiwan and India have a huge scooter culture for commuters on the same logic I'm banking on here. Conventional 4 doors aren't going away, but there's a large downstream opportunity following all the traditional dynamics - it's pretty by the book, even down to the dismissive attitude, especially by me. I'm about to get 100 or so on the road in car-sharing by years end so I'll know a lot more by then. I don't know if it will work without the other pieces. Still trying to pull the inductive charging together and once aptera is actually ready to ship, I'll be getting solar ones out too. Odds are murky, but eh, let's do it anyway.