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Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected. Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions. [1] Which would result in ~1.3M dead Americans. So no. The concept of defeating COVID by relying on a "natural herd immunity" is a bad idea on all fronts. [1] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i...

guscost 6y ago
What should I tell my elderly relatives who are so creeped out by this fascist, disgraceful fiasco, that they will refuse a vaccine even though it has a decent chance of doing some good?
- metamet 6y ago
  That you don't want them to get it and die, like my grandma did? I'm not quite sure how you can convince someone to get a vaccine if they don't trust the science on it.
  - guscost 6y ago
    I’m not sure how much of it is fear of the MRNA vaccine itself, and how much is an objection to the creepy fascist context. Probably a lot of both, and maybe yes a bit too much of the former. But in any case their reply is, “We would rather take the risk.” If they get sick and die like your grandma (condolences), they will have done so at least partially by choice, a choice which they have damn well earned by their mid-nineties. I would not prefer that to them avoiding the disease entirely (they would be especially mad at being shut away in a closed ward to die alone), but it sure as hell would still be better than seeing them enslaved by technocrats.
    - metamet 6y ago
      You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. It seems that those who are vaccinated can still spread it, and I don't believe we're going to be in a place where COVID is eliminated altogether anytime soon. There will continue to be outbreaks, and it's possible that those who are vaccinated will pick it up and pass it around, and the further mutations of it seem to be increasing its rate of spread. But you're right. It is their choice.
      - guscost 6y ago
        > You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. I think you might be blind to how a person who values freedom more than safety, and who sees more danger to free civilization than to public health in this affair, would receive this threat. It would be an utterly awful thing to say.
        metamet 6y ago
        I agree that my understanding of that mindset is limited to the rationality I can make of it, but I wouldn't consider that a threat. It's the reality that we exist within, as this virus only really "cares" about replicating itself. I personally don't comprehend how someone can extrapolate receiving a vaccination to a loss of freedom, but I'm fortunate that I don't really have to. Best of luck and safety to you and your family. I look forward to the day that we get to begin returning to some semblance of normalcy. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later.
        guscost 6y ago
        Thanks, same to you. Don’t count on any “return to normalcy” though, at this point the only way out is through, and the other side is gonna look a lot different.
        amluto 6y ago
  - randmeerkat 6y ago
    I’m sorry your grandma died.
    - metamet 6y ago
      Thank you. My grandma tested positive on a Monday around a month ago and went into hospice the following Thursday night, when her oxygen dropped. She passed away the following Saturday morning. My girlfriend's grandma also passed from COVID a few weeks ago. When it rains it pours, eh? The whole thing is just horrible to deal with. Not having a chance to say goodbye or go through the grieving process together. It's just so hard to comprehend how 419k+ other families in the US have experienced similar loss.
      - berryjerry 6y ago
        That number does seem like a lot but in the same time period several million people died from other causes. Death is quite natural.
        metamet 6y ago
        Oh for sure. Grieving over death in 2020 is just all around a bad experience. But I think it's fair to say that the excess deaths [1] in 2020 have certainly amplified the reality of death, especially within the context of a shared experience. My grandma was otherwise healthy and I had had a lot of conversations with her about how much we looked forward to seeing each other once the pandemic was "over". [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
        berryjerry 6y ago
        Right, that's my point is that death sucks and it happens a lot. Obviously we would love to prevent all the death we can but just living is not always a good trade off. My grandma for example hasn't been allowed visitors for basically a year and says she would rather be dead.
        6y ago
- amluto 6y ago
  Perhaps if you encourage them to think of it as something other than a creepy, fascist, disgraceful fiasco, they might be more inclined to think rationally about it?
  - guscost 6y ago
    Commentary is for color, I think they mostly agree but have not used anything like those words, no. But it absolutely is a creepy, fascist, disgraceful fiasco, and I’m also not in the habit of lying to people I care about.

guscost 6y ago

What should I tell my elderly relatives who are so creeped out by this fascist, disgraceful fiasco, that they will refuse a vaccine even though it has a decent chance of doing some good?

metamet 6y ago
That you don't want them to get it and die, like my grandma did? I'm not quite sure how you can convince someone to get a vaccine if they don't trust the science on it.
- guscost 6y ago
  I’m not sure how much of it is fear of the MRNA vaccine itself, and how much is an objection to the creepy fascist context. Probably a lot of both, and maybe yes a bit too much of the former. But in any case their reply is, “We would rather take the risk.” If they get sick and die like your grandma (condolences), they will have done so at least partially by choice, a choice which they have damn well earned by their mid-nineties. I would not prefer that to them avoiding the disease entirely (they would be especially mad at being shut away in a closed ward to die alone), but it sure as hell would still be better than seeing them enslaved by technocrats.
  - metamet 6y ago
    You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. It seems that those who are vaccinated can still spread it, and I don't believe we're going to be in a place where COVID is eliminated altogether anytime soon. There will continue to be outbreaks, and it's possible that those who are vaccinated will pick it up and pass it around, and the further mutations of it seem to be increasing its rate of spread. But you're right. It is their choice.
    - guscost 6y ago
      > You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. I think you might be blind to how a person who values freedom more than safety, and who sees more danger to free civilization than to public health in this affair, would receive this threat. It would be an utterly awful thing to say.
      - metamet 6y ago
        I agree that my understanding of that mindset is limited to the rationality I can make of it, but I wouldn't consider that a threat. It's the reality that we exist within, as this virus only really "cares" about replicating itself. I personally don't comprehend how someone can extrapolate receiving a vaccination to a loss of freedom, but I'm fortunate that I don't really have to. Best of luck and safety to you and your family. I look forward to the day that we get to begin returning to some semblance of normalcy. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later.
        guscost 6y ago
        Thanks, same to you. Don’t count on any “return to normalcy” though, at this point the only way out is through, and the other side is gonna look a lot different.
      - amluto 6y ago
- randmeerkat 6y ago
  I’m sorry your grandma died.
  - metamet 6y ago
    Thank you. My grandma tested positive on a Monday around a month ago and went into hospice the following Thursday night, when her oxygen dropped. She passed away the following Saturday morning. My girlfriend's grandma also passed from COVID a few weeks ago. When it rains it pours, eh? The whole thing is just horrible to deal with. Not having a chance to say goodbye or go through the grieving process together. It's just so hard to comprehend how 419k+ other families in the US have experienced similar loss.
    - berryjerry 6y ago
      That number does seem like a lot but in the same time period several million people died from other causes. Death is quite natural.
      - metamet 6y ago
        Oh for sure. Grieving over death in 2020 is just all around a bad experience. But I think it's fair to say that the excess deaths [1] in 2020 have certainly amplified the reality of death, especially within the context of a shared experience. My grandma was otherwise healthy and I had had a lot of conversations with her about how much we looked forward to seeing each other once the pandemic was "over". [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
        berryjerry 6y ago
        Right, that's my point is that death sucks and it happens a lot. Obviously we would love to prevent all the death we can but just living is not always a good trade off. My grandma for example hasn't been allowed visitors for basically a year and says she would rather be dead.
      - 6y ago
amluto 6y ago
Perhaps if you encourage them to think of it as something other than a creepy, fascist, disgraceful fiasco, they might be more inclined to think rationally about it?
- guscost 6y ago
  Commentary is for color, I think they mostly agree but have not used anything like those words, no. But it absolutely is a creepy, fascist, disgraceful fiasco, and I’m also not in the habit of lying to people I care about.