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Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving? Seems to be a lot of anti-Tesla folks here, put your money where your mouth is.

DisjointedHunt 6y ago
Agreed. The only company with actual autonomous driving hardware at a scale of a Million+ cars on the road right now.
- xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago
  The "autonomous driving hardware" they have is about the same as anyone else. It's just that those other companies advertise it truthfully as a safety feature rather than pretending you have R2D2 as a chauffeur.
- plutonorm 6y ago
  Agree. The key to solving the problem is data and they have it, by the bucket load. The HN crowd is pretty conservative when it comes to tech it seems.
vegannet 6y ago
I’ll take that bet. How much? I’m not anti-Tesla but I do see Tesla as a brand more than a technology company: good for business but not good good for breaking new ground with technology — I’d put a lot against Tesla on that bet (I don’t think it matters for the business much though).
- sixQuarks 6y ago
  I say we do $1,000, but what did you have in mind? We will have to put the bets in escrow We need to agree to what constitutes full level 5 self driving. My interpretation of it is a car that can drive itself anywhere in the world, has been approved for commercial use in at least one country, AND recognized as the first to full self driving in at least 2 major publications. We can put a 5 year time limit on the bet.
  - kirubakaran 6y ago
    Unless I'm reading it wrong, it sounds like you (sixQuarks) and the parent (vegannet) want the same side of the bet :-) ie you're both betting that Tesla won't achieve FSD L5 in 5 years.
    - unwoundmouse 6y ago
      > sixQuarks 2 hours ago [–] > Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving?
  - QuixoticQuibit 6y ago
    L5 under those conditions won’t be achieved in 5 years. Might as well not make the bet.
    - sixQuarks 6y ago
      We can make a different bet on this.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving? Well, no, because (independent of opinion on the subject of the proposed bet), counterparty risk. There's a lot better places to bet against (or for) Tesla where that problem is much better controlled.
xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago
The way we bet on companies is the stock market. I am neither smart enough nor stupid enough to sell short.
ehsankia 6y ago
What Tesla has now, Waymo had back in 2012. They literally had a FSD program they were testing with certain employees, and once they found that that people quickly get distracted and stop paying attention, they gave up on that approach and went for the new strategy of jumping straight to level 4 and skipping level 3. So either they've been doing absolutely nothing for the past 8 years until getting level 4 driverless car in Phoenix. It's only a level 4 right now, since it does not work in all conditions, but it's still far ahead of Tesla's level 3 which requires the driver's attention. So far Tesla hasn't shown anything that Waymo did not have at least 5+ years ago.
- xedeon 6y ago
  Really. Waymo has this in 2012? https://youtu.be/YJxnVRAX2UA?t=4 https://youtu.be/YJxnVRAX2UA?t=4 Do you have an article/video you can share by any chance? I've been following Google's self driving efforts for years and must've missed that.
  - sidibe 6y ago
    If we're cherry-picking examples this comparison of 2009 Waymo vs 2020 FSD Beta is pretty funny https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/1324122869702389761 https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/1324122869702389761
    - xedeon 6y ago
      Those are not even remotely the same... That Waymo video has been pre-mapped. To infer that Waymo in 2012-2009 can go from point A to B anywhere in the U.S. like FSD Beta is patently false. Ever wonder why Waymo only have their fleet in a geofenced area of AZ? https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/c24bcu/i_got_finally_found_waymos_coverage_map_solid/ https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/c24bcu/i_got_finally...
      - ehsankia 6y ago
        There's a difference between can't and won't. Yes their operation in Phoenix is heavily mapped and fenced, that doesn't mean that their technology can't and hasn't driven in more improvised environment before, and I highly doubt the lumbar street example was mapped. Videos recorded by the company will always be cherry picked by definition, since they would only post videos that show the technology in its optimal working state. And there's always a driver behind the wheel checking everything goes right. The reason Waymo is operating the way it does is they realize that they need to be 120% cautious, as ONE accident is all it takes to throw all their work a decade behind, jst like one accident is all it took to completely kill Uber's self driving effort. So again, it's not that they need a fully mapped geofenced area, it's that they choose to use that for now. Hell, Tesla themselves posted their first "A to B" video back in 2016, yet here we are 5 years later and from a high level, what they showed in that cherry picked video they posted isn't much different to an average viewer, but no one would claim that they haven't improved at all in the past 5 years. This is basic anecdotal data vs real statistics. A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.
kgin 6y ago
Absolutely. I'll even go one further: we won't actually know the exact moment that Level 5 arrives. Cars with level 4 + remote assistance will be driving people around for a decade or more, phoning home less and less over time until one day someone notes that no car has phoned home for an entire year. Then maybe a car will phone home and the clock will start again. Decades from then, people will shut down the last remote assistance center. But at that point, nobody will care about declaring Level 5 because we will have been riding around for decades in cars without steering wheels that we don't have to drive.

DisjointedHunt 6y ago

Agreed. The only company with actual autonomous driving hardware at a scale of a Million+ cars on the road right now.

xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago
The "autonomous driving hardware" they have is about the same as anyone else. It's just that those other companies advertise it truthfully as a safety feature rather than pretending you have R2D2 as a chauffeur.
plutonorm 6y ago
Agree. The key to solving the problem is data and they have it, by the bucket load. The HN crowd is pretty conservative when it comes to tech it seems.

vegannet 6y ago

I’ll take that bet. How much? I’m not anti-Tesla but I do see Tesla as a brand more than a technology company: good for business but not good good for breaking new ground with technology — I’d put a lot against Tesla on that bet (I don’t think it matters for the business much though).

sixQuarks 6y ago
I say we do $1,000, but what did you have in mind? We will have to put the bets in escrow We need to agree to what constitutes full level 5 self driving. My interpretation of it is a car that can drive itself anywhere in the world, has been approved for commercial use in at least one country, AND recognized as the first to full self driving in at least 2 major publications. We can put a 5 year time limit on the bet.
- kirubakaran 6y ago
  Unless I'm reading it wrong, it sounds like you (sixQuarks) and the parent (vegannet) want the same side of the bet :-) ie you're both betting that Tesla won't achieve FSD L5 in 5 years.
  - unwoundmouse 6y ago
    > sixQuarks 2 hours ago [–] > Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving?
- QuixoticQuibit 6y ago
  L5 under those conditions won’t be achieved in 5 years. Might as well not make the bet.
  - sixQuarks 6y ago
    We can make a different bet on this.

dragonwriter 6y ago

> Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving? Well, no, because (independent of opinion on the subject of the proposed bet), counterparty risk. There's a lot better places to bet against (or for) Tesla where that problem is much better controlled.

xirbeosbwo1234 6y ago

The way we bet on companies is the stock market. I am neither smart enough nor stupid enough to sell short.

ehsankia 6y ago

What Tesla has now, Waymo had back in 2012. They literally had a FSD program they were testing with certain employees, and once they found that that people quickly get distracted and stop paying attention, they gave up on that approach and went for the new strategy of jumping straight to level 4 and skipping level 3. So either they've been doing absolutely nothing for the past 8 years until getting level 4 driverless car in Phoenix. It's only a level 4 right now, since it does not work in all conditions, but it's still far ahead of Tesla's level 3 which requires the driver's attention. So far Tesla hasn't shown anything that Waymo did not have at least 5+ years ago.

xedeon 6y ago
Really. Waymo has this in 2012? https://youtu.be/YJxnVRAX2UA?t=4 https://youtu.be/YJxnVRAX2UA?t=4 Do you have an article/video you can share by any chance? I've been following Google's self driving efforts for years and must've missed that.
- sidibe 6y ago
  If we're cherry-picking examples this comparison of 2009 Waymo vs 2020 FSD Beta is pretty funny https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/1324122869702389761 https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/1324122869702389761
  - xedeon 6y ago
    Those are not even remotely the same... That Waymo video has been pre-mapped. To infer that Waymo in 2012-2009 can go from point A to B anywhere in the U.S. like FSD Beta is patently false. Ever wonder why Waymo only have their fleet in a geofenced area of AZ? https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/c24bcu/i_got_finally_found_waymos_coverage_map_solid/ https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/c24bcu/i_got_finally...
    - ehsankia 6y ago
      There's a difference between can't and won't. Yes their operation in Phoenix is heavily mapped and fenced, that doesn't mean that their technology can't and hasn't driven in more improvised environment before, and I highly doubt the lumbar street example was mapped. Videos recorded by the company will always be cherry picked by definition, since they would only post videos that show the technology in its optimal working state. And there's always a driver behind the wheel checking everything goes right. The reason Waymo is operating the way it does is they realize that they need to be 120% cautious, as ONE accident is all it takes to throw all their work a decade behind, jst like one accident is all it took to completely kill Uber's self driving effort. So again, it's not that they need a fully mapped geofenced area, it's that they choose to use that for now. Hell, Tesla themselves posted their first "A to B" video back in 2016, yet here we are 5 years later and from a high level, what they showed in that cherry picked video they posted isn't much different to an average viewer, but no one would claim that they haven't improved at all in the past 5 years. This is basic anecdotal data vs real statistics. A video tells you nothing about where the technology is. Unless we can see real open data about miles driven and number of disengagements, there's no way to tell if Tesla is doing well or not. So far Waymo's numbers are an order of magnitude better than any competition.

kgin 6y ago

Absolutely. I'll even go one further: we won't actually know the exact moment that Level 5 arrives. Cars with level 4 + remote assistance will be driving people around for a decade or more, phoning home less and less over time until one day someone notes that no car has phoned home for an entire year. Then maybe a car will phone home and the clock will start again. Decades from then, people will shut down the last remote assistance center. But at that point, nobody will care about declaring Level 5 because we will have been riding around for decades in cars without steering wheels that we don't have to drive.