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The problem is that what makes Whatsapp sticky is the network effect. People use Whatsapp because everyone has Whatsapp. But if you now have several millions o

The problem is that what makes Whatsapp sticky is the network effect. People use Whatsapp because everyone has Whatsapp. But if you now have several millions of people who will not use Whatsapp at all, all the groups that they are in will need to migrate to the alternative (which is pretty much Signal/Telegram at this point). So those few million become few tens of millions. And once they migrate and start liking it, they may avoid Whatsapp as well, because it's far easier to just use one app, and then their groups need to migrate, and so on. Edit 1: Added Telegram as an alternative.

outime 6y ago
Totally agree. I had a couple groups which were moved from WhatsApp to Telegram and they work great. So I’m aware (and happy) this happens but also I’m that kind of special early-adopter user who cares about things that non-tech users don’t. This is something I want to highlight. I know we’re not all product managers but as people working in tech we should be able to take different perspectives and understand that what matters to us doesn’t matter at all for the 99% of the people outside our tech world.
- cutitout 6y ago
  Freedom from being surveilled, fucked with, controlled and ultimately murdered in an industrial fashion that will make Hitler seem like a little girl with pigtails skipping across a meadow matters to everyone, some people just don't know it yet.
est31 6y ago
The network effect only acts if enough people in your network use it. It is subject to a threshold with a sigmoid activation. If only three people in a group of ten want to use Signal, it's different than if 7 want to switch. So right now, as most folks use Whatsapp, it favours Whatsapp far more than it favours Signal. It also depends on your level of seniority in that group. If you are a junior member, they likely won't switch, but if you have the social clout, you might be able to get them to switch. For the same reason, Facebook was initially open to only Harvard, then to a few other ivies, until it opened to all colleges in the USA and Canada. If your high school friend who made it to the the highly esteemed college uses the service you are more likely to switch than if it were the reverse situation. Later these people get into important positions of society and if you want to network with them, you too can use FB.
tharne 6y ago
This is exactly right. Author Nassim Taleb has written on this extensively. He calls it "The Dominance of the Stubborn Minority". A dedicated and stubborn minority can gradually impose their preferences on a majority who does not have a strong opinion on something. This why you'll order a cheese pizza if you're hanging out with friends and a single person in the group is a vegetarian. In my own life there are many group chats that are now on signal because one stubborn 'ole grouch, namely me, insisted on it. Most people don't give too much thought to the chat app they use, so they kind of shrugged their shoulders and went along with it.
- Barrin92 6y ago
  for Nassim's example to work the minority has to be exclusionary. Everything is nut-free because you don't want to kill allergic people and you can't have both nuts and no nuts in your food, so the minority in the group can force to change the behaviour of the rest. With messaging apps you can use both Whatsapp and Signal, so even if you convince a few people to convert, Whatsapp is unlikely to decline. The important word in Taleb's thesis is 'stubborn', not minority. The change isn't gradual but 'fractal' with one person in the group being able to flip everyone else, and they going on an doing the same thing.
  - IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
    I think you both can be correct I think the stubborn minority may indeed be small, but you havent given the intolerant minority the time ineeds to grow.
  - Retric 6y ago
    On the surface it seems like people would just use two apps, but most people don’t care. So, if nobody is extremely pro WhatsApp because for example they have a non smartphone and it’s what works then WhatsApp dies. It’s just a question of how many people are extremely pro WhatsApp and will Facebook drive them away.
    - xwolfi 6y ago
Deivuh 6y ago
I agree. I've been using Telegram for quite a few years, and back then I used to be more of an early adopter and tried to make my social circles to switch to Telegram and one circle did, the tech circle. The other circles didn't care much about the features that Telegram had as much as the contacts they had on Whatsapp. So now with that amount of people switching trying out Telegram, could mean that at least 2-3 people on a non-tech social circle might be using Telegram which might end up convincing the whole group to switch because of features (polls? utility bots?) or any other benefit they might find.
audiometry 6y ago
Yeah the network effect of WhatsApp is much stronger to me than, for instance, Facebook. A substantial amount of my “conversations” with friends and work-related are WhatsApp. I’d say to the degree that nowadays (in singapore) I’ve recently noticed new contacts (eg someone I buy something from on an online market) will say, “what’s your number where I can WhatsApp you?” Used to be “where do I [call, sms] you?” I have no issue using telegram or signal, it’s just that the default choice is becoming/became whatsapp. Cant stand Zuckerberg, but he does have an eye for products that can really explode in growth.
- eloisant 6y ago
  He bought WhatsApp when it was already successful. He had deep pockets and regulators didn't do their job, the merger shouldn't have been allowed.
- toyg 6y ago
  Afaik Whatsapp had already exploded before it was acquired, at least in Europe.
  - jannes 6y ago
    Exactly. At the time of the acquisition it was already the "default" messaging service in many countries. The fact that the acquisition happened has more to do with regulators being asleep than Zuckerberg being awake. As far as I can recall, the EU regulators believed Facebook's lies about not being able to link WhatsApp and Facebook accounts, which Facebook promptly ignored a few years later. They were fined €110m ($134m) [0]. The maximum fine would have been $276m at the time. Still cheap IMO. This quote reads like a joke now: > Today’s decision sends a clear signal to companies that they must comply with all aspects of EU merger rules, including the obligation to provide correct information [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/18/facebook-fined-eu-whatsapp-european-commission https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/18/facebook-fi...
herpderperator 6y ago
I agree with this. It's exactly what happened to Skype.
kerng 6y ago
This is correct, there is a magic percentage number on what the tipping point for such migration/adoption numbers is - its I believe pretty low, like 7% or so if I remember right.
pjmlp 6y ago
When I traveled around Africa, WhatsApp was the only way to contact most people. I don't envision a whole continent to change to something else unless WhatsApp dies.
- amachefe 6y ago
  Africa used to swear on blackberry messenger. Infact what killed BBM is android and whatsapp
RyEgswuCsn 6y ago
I wonder if the move will be that straightforward. A group of like-minded, privacy-aware people might move away from WhatsApp when one user advocates for it, but I am not sure a couple of people leaving a large group of average users would be enough to cause the rest to migrate. Also, human have limited amount of attention --- if Telegram/Signal cannot make it to the critical mass soon then average users who had been convinced to try the alternatives might eventually revert back to WhatsApp because maintaining multiple chatting channels can be quite annoying at times, especially considering majority of their contacts might still be on WhatsApp and it is just easier to post there.
macca321 6y ago
I use it because my mum, who has Parkinsons, can work her Facebook Portal.

outime 6y ago

Totally agree. I had a couple groups which were moved from WhatsApp to Telegram and they work great. So I’m aware (and happy) this happens but also I’m that kind of special early-adopter user who cares about things that non-tech users don’t. This is something I want to highlight. I know we’re not all product managers but as people working in tech we should be able to take different perspectives and understand that what matters to us doesn’t matter at all for the 99% of the people outside our tech world.

cutitout 6y ago
Freedom from being surveilled, fucked with, controlled and ultimately murdered in an industrial fashion that will make Hitler seem like a little girl with pigtails skipping across a meadow matters to everyone, some people just don't know it yet.

est31 6y ago

The network effect only acts if enough people in your network use it. It is subject to a threshold with a sigmoid activation. If only three people in a group of ten want to use Signal, it's different than if 7 want to switch. So right now, as most folks use Whatsapp, it favours Whatsapp far more than it favours Signal. It also depends on your level of seniority in that group. If you are a junior member, they likely won't switch, but if you have the social clout, you might be able to get them to switch. For the same reason, Facebook was initially open to only Harvard, then to a few other ivies, until it opened to all colleges in the USA and Canada. If your high school friend who made it to the the highly esteemed college uses the service you are more likely to switch than if it were the reverse situation. Later these people get into important positions of society and if you want to network with them, you too can use FB.

tharne 6y ago

This is exactly right. Author Nassim Taleb has written on this extensively. He calls it "The Dominance of the Stubborn Minority". A dedicated and stubborn minority can gradually impose their preferences on a majority who does not have a strong opinion on something. This why you'll order a cheese pizza if you're hanging out with friends and a single person in the group is a vegetarian. In my own life there are many group chats that are now on signal because one stubborn 'ole grouch, namely me, insisted on it. Most people don't give too much thought to the chat app they use, so they kind of shrugged their shoulders and went along with it.

Barrin92 6y ago
for Nassim's example to work the minority has to be exclusionary. Everything is nut-free because you don't want to kill allergic people and you can't have both nuts and no nuts in your food, so the minority in the group can force to change the behaviour of the rest. With messaging apps you can use both Whatsapp and Signal, so even if you convince a few people to convert, Whatsapp is unlikely to decline. The important word in Taleb's thesis is 'stubborn', not minority. The change isn't gradual but 'fractal' with one person in the group being able to flip everyone else, and they going on an doing the same thing.
- IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
  I think you both can be correct I think the stubborn minority may indeed be small, but you havent given the intolerant minority the time ineeds to grow.
- Retric 6y ago
  On the surface it seems like people would just use two apps, but most people don’t care. So, if nobody is extremely pro WhatsApp because for example they have a non smartphone and it’s what works then WhatsApp dies. It’s just a question of how many people are extremely pro WhatsApp and will Facebook drive them away.
  - xwolfi 6y ago

Deivuh 6y ago

I agree. I've been using Telegram for quite a few years, and back then I used to be more of an early adopter and tried to make my social circles to switch to Telegram and one circle did, the tech circle. The other circles didn't care much about the features that Telegram had as much as the contacts they had on Whatsapp. So now with that amount of people switching trying out Telegram, could mean that at least 2-3 people on a non-tech social circle might be using Telegram which might end up convincing the whole group to switch because of features (polls? utility bots?) or any other benefit they might find.

audiometry 6y ago

Yeah the network effect of WhatsApp is much stronger to me than, for instance, Facebook. A substantial amount of my “conversations” with friends and work-related are WhatsApp. I’d say to the degree that nowadays (in singapore) I’ve recently noticed new contacts (eg someone I buy something from on an online market) will say, “what’s your number where I can WhatsApp you?” Used to be “where do I [call, sms] you?” I have no issue using telegram or signal, it’s just that the default choice is becoming/became whatsapp. Cant stand Zuckerberg, but he does have an eye for products that can really explode in growth.

eloisant 6y ago
He bought WhatsApp when it was already successful. He had deep pockets and regulators didn't do their job, the merger shouldn't have been allowed.
toyg 6y ago
Afaik Whatsapp had already exploded before it was acquired, at least in Europe.
- jannes 6y ago
  Exactly. At the time of the acquisition it was already the "default" messaging service in many countries. The fact that the acquisition happened has more to do with regulators being asleep than Zuckerberg being awake. As far as I can recall, the EU regulators believed Facebook's lies about not being able to link WhatsApp and Facebook accounts, which Facebook promptly ignored a few years later. They were fined €110m ($134m) [0]. The maximum fine would have been $276m at the time. Still cheap IMO. This quote reads like a joke now: > Today’s decision sends a clear signal to companies that they must comply with all aspects of EU merger rules, including the obligation to provide correct information [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/18/facebook-fined-eu-whatsapp-european-commission https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/18/facebook-fi...

herpderperator 6y ago

I agree with this. It's exactly what happened to Skype.

kerng 6y ago

This is correct, there is a magic percentage number on what the tipping point for such migration/adoption numbers is - its I believe pretty low, like 7% or so if I remember right.

pjmlp 6y ago

When I traveled around Africa, WhatsApp was the only way to contact most people. I don't envision a whole continent to change to something else unless WhatsApp dies.

amachefe 6y ago
Africa used to swear on blackberry messenger. Infact what killed BBM is android and whatsapp

RyEgswuCsn 6y ago

I wonder if the move will be that straightforward. A group of like-minded, privacy-aware people might move away from WhatsApp when one user advocates for it, but I am not sure a couple of people leaving a large group of average users would be enough to cause the rest to migrate. Also, human have limited amount of attention --- if Telegram/Signal cannot make it to the critical mass soon then average users who had been convinced to try the alternatives might eventually revert back to WhatsApp because maintaining multiple chatting channels can be quite annoying at times, especially considering majority of their contacts might still be on WhatsApp and it is just easier to post there.

macca321 6y ago

I use it because my mum, who has Parkinsons, can work her Facebook Portal.