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I should probably dig a little more into the microeconomics, but for me as a consumer the only difference between an autonomous car and an (human) Uber is price

I should probably dig a little more into the microeconomics, but for me as a consumer the only difference between an autonomous car and an (human) Uber is price. If we assume that the price of the car stays the same, insurance and fuel still have to be paid and the cab app gets their cut - how much of my ride is really attributable to the cost of the human driver? So how much human labor can be automated away to the benefit of consumers? Not much I think. Given current hardware prices, it seems like the car itself will be a lot more expensive; so how many trips need to be taken so that the variable cost advantage exceeds the increased fixed cost? Driving is a ubiquitous human skill and tens of millions are looking for work, I believe it will be difficult to undercut them on price. Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city. Long-haul trucking is a different story, there is a massive labor shortage and letting big rigs go from one warehouse to another without the need of a driver looks like a huge opportunity.

freeone3000 6y ago
Significantly more than half of your ride fare on Uber goes to the driver - between 70 and 130%. Human costs are vastly the most expensive part of hailing a ride, and will remain so as long as minimum wage exists. The same argument for human drivers also applies to human dishwashers and human launderers, and yet, most of us are fine using machines for this purpose. Whether or not this will cause financial disaster for people relying on it for a source of income is irrelevant when replacing jobs with technology.
- aidenn0 6y ago
  But what fraction of the money that goes to the driver is spent on depreciation and maintenance?
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Don't forget insurance/liability, gas, security, and cleaning up after passengers, too!
  - michaelt 6y ago
    In my country, the government's "generous, all things considered" cost of operating a private car* is 45p per mile - which covers not just fuel, but also depreciation, insurance and suchlike. Meanwhile, a 12-minute, 4 mile Uber journey would cost me £2.43/mile Of course, the big unknown here is one of driver utilisation: How many miles does the driver drive to pick me up, and how many minutes are they waiting for the next ride to come in? * Well, it was considered generous the last time I asked a car owner about it. I'm sure a Lamborghini costs more.
  - twic 6y ago
    Here's one breakdown: https://uberdriverlondon.co.uk/is-it-worth-driving-for-uber-in-london/ https://uberdriverlondon.co.uk/is-it-worth-driving-for-uber-... I think the interesting number there is 23 000 GBP/year, which is effectively the cost to Uber of having a human driver for one car operating 60 hours per week. If a computer can drive a car for 60 hours a week, it saves money for Uber if the amortized cost is less than 23 000 GBP/yr. If a computer can drive a car for more than 60 hours a week, it saves money even if it costs more than 23 000 GBP/yr, although i don't think it's linear - demand is concentrated at a few times of day, so one car on the road 24 hours a day is not equivalent o four cars on the road for six hours each.
- throwawayzRUU6f 6y ago
  The statistics, based on https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-uber-drivers-really-make-2018-05-15 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-uber-driv... > Uber drivers typically collect $24.77 per hour > From that, Uber takes $8.33 in commissions and fees > Vehicle expenses like gas and maintenance cost drivers about $4.87 per hour > That leaves drivers with $11.77 per hour Now, the maintenance and amortization will be higher for autonomous vehicles. Somebody will need to clean these vehicles, scrape the ice off, refuel, monitor them, deal with anomalies and false alarms, etc - all of which is now taken care of by the driver. Autonomous vehicles will likely end up being cheaper, but it's not as clear cut.
  - freeone3000 6y ago
    At $11.77 per hour, if you have to hire one person to handle all of that for every two vehicles, it's still a huge savings. It would take a very false-alarm-heavy system to require that level of attention.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city. They commit sexual assault, submit fraudulent reports of rider damages, ...
mewpmewp2 6y ago
You could incorporate augmented reality into car windows etc to talk about the city too. All of what you mentioned are solvable problems via tech.
rcxdude 6y ago
The driver is a huge part of the cost of a taxi ride (even with Uber subsidising them unsustainably with investor's money). An autonomous car company can price a journey at about the same as a bus ticket for a point-to-point on-demand journey and still make money hand over fist with their first generation hardware. Even for commuters this could be substantially cheaper than a car.
- Fricken 6y ago
  The running joke at Waymo for a long time was "How many engineers does it take to operate a self driving car?"

freeone3000 6y ago

Significantly more than half of your ride fare on Uber goes to the driver - between 70 and 130%. Human costs are vastly the most expensive part of hailing a ride, and will remain so as long as minimum wage exists. The same argument for human drivers also applies to human dishwashers and human launderers, and yet, most of us are fine using machines for this purpose. Whether or not this will cause financial disaster for people relying on it for a source of income is irrelevant when replacing jobs with technology.

aidenn0 6y ago
But what fraction of the money that goes to the driver is spent on depreciation and maintenance?
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  Don't forget insurance/liability, gas, security, and cleaning up after passengers, too!
- michaelt 6y ago
  In my country, the government's "generous, all things considered" cost of operating a private car* is 45p per mile - which covers not just fuel, but also depreciation, insurance and suchlike. Meanwhile, a 12-minute, 4 mile Uber journey would cost me £2.43/mile Of course, the big unknown here is one of driver utilisation: How many miles does the driver drive to pick me up, and how many minutes are they waiting for the next ride to come in? * Well, it was considered generous the last time I asked a car owner about it. I'm sure a Lamborghini costs more.
- twic 6y ago
  Here's one breakdown: https://uberdriverlondon.co.uk/is-it-worth-driving-for-uber-in-london/ https://uberdriverlondon.co.uk/is-it-worth-driving-for-uber-... I think the interesting number there is 23 000 GBP/year, which is effectively the cost to Uber of having a human driver for one car operating 60 hours per week. If a computer can drive a car for 60 hours a week, it saves money for Uber if the amortized cost is less than 23 000 GBP/yr. If a computer can drive a car for more than 60 hours a week, it saves money even if it costs more than 23 000 GBP/yr, although i don't think it's linear - demand is concentrated at a few times of day, so one car on the road 24 hours a day is not equivalent o four cars on the road for six hours each.
throwawayzRUU6f 6y ago
The statistics, based on https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-uber-drivers-really-make-2018-05-15 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-uber-driv... > Uber drivers typically collect $24.77 per hour > From that, Uber takes $8.33 in commissions and fees > Vehicle expenses like gas and maintenance cost drivers about $4.87 per hour > That leaves drivers with $11.77 per hour Now, the maintenance and amortization will be higher for autonomous vehicles. Somebody will need to clean these vehicles, scrape the ice off, refuel, monitor them, deal with anomalies and false alarms, etc - all of which is now taken care of by the driver. Autonomous vehicles will likely end up being cheaper, but it's not as clear cut.
- freeone3000 6y ago
  At $11.77 per hour, if you have to hire one person to handle all of that for every two vehicles, it's still a huge savings. It would take a very false-alarm-heavy system to require that level of attention.

dragonwriter 6y ago

> Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city. They commit sexual assault, submit fraudulent reports of rider damages, ...

mewpmewp2 6y ago

You could incorporate augmented reality into car windows etc to talk about the city too. All of what you mentioned are solvable problems via tech.

rcxdude 6y ago

The driver is a huge part of the cost of a taxi ride (even with Uber subsidising them unsustainably with investor's money). An autonomous car company can price a journey at about the same as a bus ticket for a point-to-point on-demand journey and still make money hand over fist with their first generation hardware. Even for commuters this could be substantially cheaper than a car.

Fricken 6y ago
The running joke at Waymo for a long time was "How many engineers does it take to operate a self driving car?"