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Yeah, exactly. I did a fairly deep dive into what path the car industry is going to take with respect to electric cars (especially what a mass market electric c

Yeah, exactly. I did a fairly deep dive into what path the car industry is going to take with respect to electric cars (especially what a mass market electric car is going to look like), and it all had a huge asterisk associated with it of "but mass car ownership might stop being a thing before any of this happens", at which point thing change drasticly, because then you have a much smaller market of probably more specialised, expensive cars which are designed for way higher duty cycles than most consumer cars.

swagasaurus-rex 6y ago
In poorer nations autonomous cars could take much longer for mass adoption due to different, sometimes harsher road conditions, and lack of reliable road-map data. In addition, self-driving vehicles would be pricier. For a poor nation, that price tag might be higher than human labor.
- mxschumacher 6y ago
  yes, making autonomous driving work in central Delhi or Agadir will be much different from a US highway. Maybe it's too cyberpunk, but I can already see the headline of road pirates capturing autonomous cars and taking them apart for spares. Those sensors, the GPU and computing units are quite valuable.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - TheDong 6y ago
    Your impression of Delhi and Agadir doesn't seem right to me. By the numbers, Delhi has the highest crime-rate in india, but it has a 5 times lower rate of crime than San Francisco does. And also, self-driving cars will all have enough cameras and be constantly connected to a server that theft will be far less likely for them than regular cars... and regular calls already seem to get by just fine without people stripping them to the bolts.
    - strangeattractr 6y ago
      Unreported crimes aren't factored into the stats you quote.
      - sudosysgen 6y ago
        That works on both sides of the equation, as someone who lived both in NA and Morocco. There's similar levels of unreported crime.
    - ohgodplsno 6y ago
      You seem to think that data being sent to a server will stop physical theft. That's an... Optimistic point of view to say the least.
    - mxschumacher 6y ago
      I meant the kind of traffic they have, I've driven there, it's unique!
mxschumacher 6y ago
I should probably dig a little more into the microeconomics, but for me as a consumer the only difference between an autonomous car and an (human) Uber is price. If we assume that the price of the car stays the same, insurance and fuel still have to be paid and the cab app gets their cut - how much of my ride is really attributable to the cost of the human driver? So how much human labor can be automated away to the benefit of consumers? Not much I think. Given current hardware prices, it seems like the car itself will be a lot more expensive; so how many trips need to be taken so that the variable cost advantage exceeds the increased fixed cost? Driving is a ubiquitous human skill and tens of millions are looking for work, I believe it will be difficult to undercut them on price. Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city. Long-haul trucking is a different story, there is a massive labor shortage and letting big rigs go from one warehouse to another without the need of a driver looks like a huge opportunity.
- freeone3000 6y ago
  Significantly more than half of your ride fare on Uber goes to the driver - between 70 and 130%. Human costs are vastly the most expensive part of hailing a ride, and will remain so as long as minimum wage exists. The same argument for human drivers also applies to human dishwashers and human launderers, and yet, most of us are fine using machines for this purpose. Whether or not this will cause financial disaster for people relying on it for a source of income is irrelevant when replacing jobs with technology.
  - aidenn0 6y ago
    But what fraction of the money that goes to the driver is spent on depreciation and maintenance?
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      Don't forget insurance/liability, gas, security, and cleaning up after passengers, too!
    - 6y ago

swagasaurus-rex 6y ago

In poorer nations autonomous cars could take much longer for mass adoption due to different, sometimes harsher road conditions, and lack of reliable road-map data. In addition, self-driving vehicles would be pricier. For a poor nation, that price tag might be higher than human labor.

mxschumacher 6y ago
yes, making autonomous driving work in central Delhi or Agadir will be much different from a US highway. Maybe it's too cyberpunk, but I can already see the headline of road pirates capturing autonomous cars and taking them apart for spares. Those sensors, the GPU and computing units are quite valuable.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- TheDong 6y ago
  Your impression of Delhi and Agadir doesn't seem right to me. By the numbers, Delhi has the highest crime-rate in india, but it has a 5 times lower rate of crime than San Francisco does. And also, self-driving cars will all have enough cameras and be constantly connected to a server that theft will be far less likely for them than regular cars... and regular calls already seem to get by just fine without people stripping them to the bolts.
  - strangeattractr 6y ago
    Unreported crimes aren't factored into the stats you quote.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      That works on both sides of the equation, as someone who lived both in NA and Morocco. There's similar levels of unreported crime.
  - ohgodplsno 6y ago
    You seem to think that data being sent to a server will stop physical theft. That's an... Optimistic point of view to say the least.
  - mxschumacher 6y ago
    I meant the kind of traffic they have, I've driven there, it's unique!

mxschumacher 6y ago

I should probably dig a little more into the microeconomics, but for me as a consumer the only difference between an autonomous car and an (human) Uber is price. If we assume that the price of the car stays the same, insurance and fuel still have to be paid and the cab app gets their cut - how much of my ride is really attributable to the cost of the human driver? So how much human labor can be automated away to the benefit of consumers? Not much I think. Given current hardware prices, it seems like the car itself will be a lot more expensive; so how many trips need to be taken so that the variable cost advantage exceeds the increased fixed cost? Driving is a ubiquitous human skill and tens of millions are looking for work, I believe it will be difficult to undercut them on price. Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city. Long-haul trucking is a different story, there is a massive labor shortage and letting big rigs go from one warehouse to another without the need of a driver looks like a huge opportunity.

freeone3000 6y ago
Significantly more than half of your ride fare on Uber goes to the driver - between 70 and 130%. Human costs are vastly the most expensive part of hailing a ride, and will remain so as long as minimum wage exists. The same argument for human drivers also applies to human dishwashers and human launderers, and yet, most of us are fine using machines for this purpose. Whether or not this will cause financial disaster for people relying on it for a source of income is irrelevant when replacing jobs with technology.
- aidenn0 6y ago
  But what fraction of the money that goes to the driver is spent on depreciation and maintenance?
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Don't forget insurance/liability, gas, security, and cleaning up after passengers, too!
  - 6y ago