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Are you aware how low the deaths per mile is for humans? I don't think we know if Waymo has a lower rate than a human yet. Tesla I don't know, but wouldn't be

Are you aware how low the deaths per mile is for humans? I don't think we know if Waymo has a lower rate than a human yet. Tesla I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised if it is higher.

paulryanrogers 6y ago
IIRC for humans it's like 1 death per million miles driven. I believe Waymo is closing in on that. Not sure if Waymo handles the variety of conditions though. Musk and Tesla seem very flippant in their marketing.
- gundmc 6y ago
  But Waymo hasn't had any deaths and has over 20 million miles driven?
  - tlrobinson 6y ago
    I don’t think those miles are directly comparable because most of Waymo’s miles are with trained test drivers, I think?
- s17n 6y ago
  It’s one per 100 million.
- dontreact 6y ago
  It’s not. It’s 1 per 100 million miles
invisible 6y ago
> In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.45 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.27 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
- stefan_ 6y ago
  That doesn't tell the story. Autopilot is essentially forced off for anything but highway, so they are missing the most dangerous but are racking up millions of the least dangerous miles quick.
  - invisible 6y ago
    I can't actually find anything suggesting that the most dangerous roads are not highways. I really tried. Perhaps there are more small accidents on local roads, but they would tend to be less dangerous. The evidence suggests that highways are significantly more fatal[0]. Also, Autopilot is not essential forced off for anything but highways. That is just factually incorrect. Notably, straight-aways are where Autopilot works best and are the most dangerous by crashes.[1] I found data suggesting that a lot of accidents happen because people rear-end stopped cars at intersections[2] and issues with navigating intersections[3]. That is an area where Autopilot is pretty great today. 0: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/People/PeopleAllVictims.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/People/PeopleAllVictims.aspx (see last table) 1: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesAllVehicles.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesAllVehicles.... (see last table) 2: https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/when-and-where-do-car-accidents-happen-the-most-52023 https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/when-and-where-do-car-acci... 3: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesLocation.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesLocation.asp...

Are you aware how low the deaths per mile is for humans? I don't think we know if Waymo has a lower rate than a human yet. Tesla I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised if it is higher.

paulryanrogers 6y ago

IIRC for humans it's like 1 death per million miles driven. I believe Waymo is closing in on that. Not sure if Waymo handles the variety of conditions though. Musk and Tesla seem very flippant in their marketing.

gundmc 6y ago
But Waymo hasn't had any deaths and has over 20 million miles driven?
- tlrobinson 6y ago
  I don’t think those miles are directly comparable because most of Waymo’s miles are with trained test drivers, I think?
s17n 6y ago
It’s one per 100 million.
dontreact 6y ago
It’s not. It’s 1 per 100 million miles

invisible 6y ago

> In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.45 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.27 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

stefan_ 6y ago
That doesn't tell the story. Autopilot is essentially forced off for anything but highway, so they are missing the most dangerous but are racking up millions of the least dangerous miles quick.
- invisible 6y ago
  I can't actually find anything suggesting that the most dangerous roads are not highways. I really tried. Perhaps there are more small accidents on local roads, but they would tend to be less dangerous. The evidence suggests that highways are significantly more fatal[0]. Also, Autopilot is not essential forced off for anything but highways. That is just factually incorrect. Notably, straight-aways are where Autopilot works best and are the most dangerous by crashes.[1] I found data suggesting that a lot of accidents happen because people rear-end stopped cars at intersections[2] and issues with navigating intersections[3]. That is an area where Autopilot is pretty great today. 0: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/People/PeopleAllVictims.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/People/PeopleAllVictims.aspx (see last table) 1: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesAllVehicles.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesAllVehicles.... (see last table) 2: https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/when-and-where-do-car-accidents-happen-the-most-52023 https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/when-and-where-do-car-acci... 3: https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesLocation.aspx https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Vehicles/VehiclesLocation.asp...