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I cannot help but think of this tweet [0]. https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969 https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/86631328930696396
by isolli 6y ago
I cannot help but think of this tweet [0].
https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969 https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/866313289306963969
In short, solar production had increased steeply between 2000 and 2015, but each and every year, the IEA predicted that production would plateau. Each and every year, they were wrong. And yet they did it again the following year.
- bob29 6y agoRecently the author of "Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon" Jenny Chase was on the Energy Transition Show podcast [0] discussing the growth of solar. The discussion got into some of the technical reasons solar was able to grow as it did; while the analysts were assuming solar was barely affordable with the subsidies, the industry was actually using the subsidies to develop low cost manufacturing processses, springboarding off technology from modern semiconductor manufacturing. A comical moment in that interview, on the same topic as this tweet, was that not only did IEA and other agencies and analyists under-estimate solar, the best estimate (which was still short by half) was from Greenpeace just using a simple compound growth model. [0]https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-132-the-future-of-solar/ https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-132-the-future-of...
- username90 6y agoWe know for certain is that every exponential progress humans achieves will stop at some point. We saw exponential energy progress in the first half of 20'th century, many assumed that would just continue and everyone would have flying cars today but it stopped dead in its tracks and the energy quantities we have available today is mostly the same that we had 50 years ago.