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The effects of climate change absolutely have to be taken into account when modelling population dynamics around the world, but this is almost never done. I wo

The effects of climate change absolutely have to be taken into account when modelling population dynamics around the world, but this is almost never done. I would really like to see a model that as a minimum includes the effects of all of the following: * Water stress * Effects of a prolonged forest fire season in Southern Europe * Temperature increases * Climate change effects on coastal communities Also ease of migration between places should be taken into account. The population models I see usually are limited to "birthrate in this country is projected to be this number, therefore population is projected to change in this way". Which seems to be much too simplistic to me.

onethought 6y ago
Prolonged forest fires in Europe??? Is that a thing? I’ve heard of Australia having insanely massive fires (easily bigger than all of Southern Europe) and west coast US having smaller but more intense fires. Where are the fires in Southern Europe?
- coryrc 6y ago
  prolonged season Greece
  - onethought 6y ago
    There is a prolonged fire season in Greece? Do you mean in 2018? It's not really seasonal.
- jgilias 6y ago
  Google 'forest fires Portugal'. I mentioned Southern Europe not because I would think that the fire problem there is more dire than in Australia or California but because the effects on international migration would likely be different. Affected people in Portugal have a very easy time moving to a different European country and Portugal itself is quite small. So, whereas one could argue that forest fires in the US are unlikely to affect the population dynamics of the US taken as a whole, they are in fact likely to affect population dynamics of Portugal. With people first moving to the coastal areas and Lisbon, and afterwards many moving further to some place like Germany or Scandinavia.
  - onethought 6y ago
    Sorry - I wasn't aware that Portugal was Southern Europe my bad. The entire population of Portugal is 10 million. I assume the effected part of Portugal is WAY less that that (given there needs to be a bunch of forrest). But comparing population dynamics of Portugal with the US or Australia isn't apples to apples. A closer comparison would be population dynamics of California, Portugal, Victoria, New South Wales with the event of bushfires, no?

onethought 6y ago

Prolonged forest fires in Europe??? Is that a thing? I’ve heard of Australia having insanely massive fires (easily bigger than all of Southern Europe) and west coast US having smaller but more intense fires. Where are the fires in Southern Europe?

coryrc 6y ago
prolonged season Greece
- onethought 6y ago
  There is a prolonged fire season in Greece? Do you mean in 2018? It's not really seasonal.
jgilias 6y ago
Google 'forest fires Portugal'. I mentioned Southern Europe not because I would think that the fire problem there is more dire than in Australia or California but because the effects on international migration would likely be different. Affected people in Portugal have a very easy time moving to a different European country and Portugal itself is quite small. So, whereas one could argue that forest fires in the US are unlikely to affect the population dynamics of the US taken as a whole, they are in fact likely to affect population dynamics of Portugal. With people first moving to the coastal areas and Lisbon, and afterwards many moving further to some place like Germany or Scandinavia.
- onethought 6y ago
  Sorry - I wasn't aware that Portugal was Southern Europe my bad. The entire population of Portugal is 10 million. I assume the effected part of Portugal is WAY less that that (given there needs to be a bunch of forrest). But comparing population dynamics of Portugal with the US or Australia isn't apples to apples. A closer comparison would be population dynamics of California, Portugal, Victoria, New South Wales with the event of bushfires, no?