3 ms·

> NYC and SF are emptying As an NYC renter who's been spending a lot of time looking at sales listings in the NYC housing market recently: This is not true. Yo

by geofft 6y ago

> NYC and SF are emptying As an NYC renter who's been spending a lot of time looking at sales listings in the NYC housing market recently: This is not true. You are repeating a lie. If it were true, I and my other renter friends would at least be able to keep our rents steady. My rent went up during covid, as did others'. And we're in perfectly generic apartments. A couple of loud rich people are posting thinkpieces about leaving. A couple of folks who hate NYC and SF are aggressively retweeting those posts. And, perhaps, growth is slowing down. But the city is not "emptying." But if it helps you feel more oppressed and backs up your identity politics, believe whatever you want.

IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
According to every major outlet NYC has like Crains' NY, Bloomberg, and even realtor reports, show that every indicator for NYC at least, that the city demand for real estate is dramatically shrinking. Rents are down 22%. Listings at an all time high. Vacancies at record 6.2%. Time of listings are also getting longer. Some of these numbers are 10 to 20 year highs. SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/manhattan-apartment-rents-sink-to-the-lowest-level-in-a-decade?sref=RJ2RlMrh https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/manhattan... https://www.crainsnewyork.com/residential-real-estate/cheap-rents-lots-sales-should-define-citys-residential-market-year-0 https://www.crainsnewyork.com/residential-real-estate/cheap-...
- geofft 6y ago
  Hm. I wonder if what's happening is that the very top of the market is falling out. There exist apartments for rent in the tens of thousands per month range in Manhattan, and it totally would not surprise me that if you wanted a place to live with a large family, it's no longer interesting to do that in a skyscraper by Central Park. If that were true, that would explain why the median rent is down 22% - the top end of the curve got lopped off - but I'm certainly not seeing rents down even 0%, let alone 22%, in my range! (That would also line up with the article's claim that 80% of groups looking for homes are 1-2 person groups. The 20% is quite profitable.)
tomatocracy 6y ago
This feels right - the benefits of living in the city were always more about being close to other people for nightlife etc than being near the office anyway. Most people always did leave central London/NYC/etc in their 30s when they start a family - Covid may have temporarily changed some people's plans but I do think it's temporary. But office space in major cities is looking pretty vulnerable I think. Moving from planning space based on everyone spending 5 days a week in the office to planning based on work from home 2/3 days per week on average allows you to give workers more space per head (for their days in the office) while also still using less space in total and saving money - it's a win/win. Not everyone will do this but it will be widespread enough to make a real difference I suspect. There will be knock on impact to that in all the businesses which serve office workers too. And eventually it probably feeds into a change in the mix between office space and residential which could (via more supply) put some downward pressure on residential rents.
mancerayder 6y ago
Rents in my building in Manhattan have dropped by at least 15-20 pct. Sales prices for condos have gone down (I know people who had to lower prices). Forget both my and your experiences, just look at the median rents and look at any online publication on the topic, even a brokerage report that comes out every quarter. Manhattan definitely has emptied quite a bit.

by geofft 6y ago

IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago

According to every major outlet NYC has like Crains' NY, Bloomberg, and even realtor reports, show that every indicator for NYC at least, that the city demand for real estate is dramatically shrinking. Rents are down 22%. Listings at an all time high. Vacancies at record 6.2%. Time of listings are also getting longer. Some of these numbers are 10 to 20 year highs. SOURCE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/manhattan-apartment-rents-sink-to-the-lowest-level-in-a-decade?sref=RJ2RlMrh https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/manhattan... https://www.crainsnewyork.com/residential-real-estate/cheap-rents-lots-sales-should-define-citys-residential-market-year-0 https://www.crainsnewyork.com/residential-real-estate/cheap-...

geofft 6y ago
Hm. I wonder if what's happening is that the very top of the market is falling out. There exist apartments for rent in the tens of thousands per month range in Manhattan, and it totally would not surprise me that if you wanted a place to live with a large family, it's no longer interesting to do that in a skyscraper by Central Park. If that were true, that would explain why the median rent is down 22% - the top end of the curve got lopped off - but I'm certainly not seeing rents down even 0%, let alone 22%, in my range! (That would also line up with the article's claim that 80% of groups looking for homes are 1-2 person groups. The 20% is quite profitable.)

tomatocracy 6y ago

This feels right - the benefits of living in the city were always more about being close to other people for nightlife etc than being near the office anyway. Most people always did leave central London/NYC/etc in their 30s when they start a family - Covid may have temporarily changed some people's plans but I do think it's temporary. But office space in major cities is looking pretty vulnerable I think. Moving from planning space based on everyone spending 5 days a week in the office to planning based on work from home 2/3 days per week on average allows you to give workers more space per head (for their days in the office) while also still using less space in total and saving money - it's a win/win. Not everyone will do this but it will be widespread enough to make a real difference I suspect. There will be knock on impact to that in all the businesses which serve office workers too. And eventually it probably feeds into a change in the mix between office space and residential which could (via more supply) put some downward pressure on residential rents.

mancerayder 6y ago

Rents in my building in Manhattan have dropped by at least 15-20 pct. Sales prices for condos have gone down (I know people who had to lower prices). Forget both my and your experiences, just look at the median rents and look at any online publication on the topic, even a brokerage report that comes out every quarter. Manhattan definitely has emptied quite a bit.