4 ms·

Autumn Covid-19 surge dates in Europe point to Vitamin D as contributing factor

15 points by AndrewBissell 6y ago

psiconaut 6y ago
I might be biased, but it seems that the hypothesis of the blood level of 25OHD having high impact on complications seems to gain more and more traction - and, in this case, correlation supports reasoned causation. Recent studies were pointing results almost too good to believe (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.08.20222638v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.08.20222638v...), but a big-scale clinical trial is still needed to confirm such a cheap and and effective treatment. I know all hopes are put now on speeding up the vaccination rate, which is great, but it's honestly hard to believe the lack of quality in the discussion of scientific controversies like this one about VitD. To begin with, even after millions of euros having been put into research of the VitD deficiency pandemic (for instance: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28516265/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28516265/), it's almost impossible to find comparable, raw data to independently re-analyze previous studies... The practice of science nowadays really sucks. For sure, science-deniers suck even more, but that's no excuse.
- taxicabjesus 6y ago
  > The practice of science nowadays really sucks. For sure, science-deniers suck even more, but that's no excuse. People trust engineers (airplanes, bridges, elevators, etc) because engineers test their work before putting it into production. When Production breaks [0], engineers make every effort to figure out what went wrong so they can fix the problem. Science advances one funeral at a time. > but it's honestly hard to believe the lack of quality in the discussion of scientific controversies like this one about VitD. There is a political agenda too. Now that the orange president has been removed, maybe the seasonality of COVID-19 [1] can be acknowledged. But fear is a powerful drug, and the panic-pushers can't let up... [0] Apollo 1, for example: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25884042 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25884042 [1] https://twitter.com/OBusybody/status/1352699709475987456 https://twitter.com/OBusybody/status/1352699709475987456
- a9h74j 6y ago
  IIRC there was also a study which showed substantially improved outcomes based on administering shock doses of some particular VitD metabolite. I've counted this as in favor of "causation" vis-a-vis VitD, not just correlation.
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
I've been taking 5k IU of vitamin D since right about when all the "racism is the real virus" talk started happening, under the assumption that sun exposure/geography/seasonality/skin color and vitamin D go hand-in-hand. There's definitely some socioeconomic factor with jobs and living situation that would lead to higher viral "inocula" but it seems all too possible that someone in the northeast with darker skin probably doesn't have enough vitamin D, even possibly profoundly so.

15 points by AndrewBissell 6y ago

I might be biased, but it seems that the hypothesis of the blood level of 25OHD having high impact on complications seems to gain more and more traction - and, in this case, correlation supports reasoned causation. Recent studies were pointing results almost too good to believe (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.08.20222638v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.08.20222638v...), but a big-scale clinical trial is still needed to confirm such a cheap and and effective treatment. I know all hopes are put now on speeding up the vaccination rate, which is great, but it's honestly hard to believe the lack of quality in the discussion of scientific controversies like this one about VitD. To begin with, even after millions of euros having been put into research of the VitD deficiency pandemic (for instance: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28516265/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28516265/), it's almost impossible to find comparable, raw data to independently re-analyze previous studies... The practice of science nowadays really sucks. For sure, science-deniers suck even more, but that's no excuse.

taxicabjesus 6y ago
> The practice of science nowadays really sucks. For sure, science-deniers suck even more, but that's no excuse. People trust engineers (airplanes, bridges, elevators, etc) because engineers test their work before putting it into production. When Production breaks [0], engineers make every effort to figure out what went wrong so they can fix the problem. Science advances one funeral at a time. > but it's honestly hard to believe the lack of quality in the discussion of scientific controversies like this one about VitD. There is a political agenda too. Now that the orange president has been removed, maybe the seasonality of COVID-19 [1] can be acknowledged. But fear is a powerful drug, and the panic-pushers can't let up... [0] Apollo 1, for example: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25884042 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25884042 [1] https://twitter.com/OBusybody/status/1352699709475987456 https://twitter.com/OBusybody/status/1352699709475987456
a9h74j 6y ago
IIRC there was also a study which showed substantially improved outcomes based on administering shock doses of some particular VitD metabolite. I've counted this as in favor of "causation" vis-a-vis VitD, not just correlation.

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago

I've been taking 5k IU of vitamin D since right about when all the "racism is the real virus" talk started happening, under the assumption that sun exposure/geography/seasonality/skin color and vitamin D go hand-in-hand. There's definitely some socioeconomic factor with jobs and living situation that would lead to higher viral "inocula" but it seems all too possible that someone in the northeast with darker skin probably doesn't have enough vitamin D, even possibly profoundly so.