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Gigadollar-scale space projects seem like a particularly poor fit for the private industry model, though. Conventionally the idea of free-market competition is

Gigadollar-scale space projects seem like a particularly poor fit for the private industry model, though. Conventionally the idea of free-market competition is that companies stand to gain if they succeed but have to eat the losses if they fail, and so competition eventually selects the best. But we're not talking about making widgets or sandwiches or launch vehicles. Things like the ISS, JWST, etc are all one-off projects, and they cannot be allowed to fail, so competition doesn't really help and the public is left holding the bag, just like we see in the endless cost overruns of politically unkillable DoD contracts. "Public bad private good" isn't a coherent strategy. If NASA isn't good enough then the preference should be to improve NASA rather than to insert an unnecessary layer of profit-taking for SpaceX or Boeing to do the same thing anyway.

curiousllama 6y ago
>Things like the ISS, JWST, etc are all one-off projects, and they cannot be allowed to fail True > "Public bad private good" isn't a coherent strategy Also true Still, an infinite series of one-off projects comprise a continuous market. If SpaceX royally screws up one project, then yes, the public is left holding the bag _on that project_. But you know who's getting a lot fewer projects? SpaceX. A federal gov't monopoly isn't the answer, just as abolishing NASA isn't the answer. Both are good. But... SpaceX is proving they can launch cheaper, quicker, and just as safely - isn't that a thing worth encouraging?
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > SpaceX is proving they can launch cheaper, quicker, and just as safely - isn't that a thing worth encouraging? No because there isn't a launch demand large enough to justify what SpaceX is trying to perfect, and all of Musk's projects are welfare queens. HNers confuse the entertainment value of watching rockets get reused with actual space delivery - which is exactly backwards. If you're confused by the above, what is SpaceX going to do with their launch capacity after Starlink?
- onethought 6y ago
  But space x work in spite of the nasa system... could you dream of nasa celebrating SN8 plowing into the ground as a raging success... it’s a huge cultural shift, not so much driven by private sector competition (Honestly who competes with space x?), more to do with leadership style. BlueOrigin is a perfect Nasa 2.0 comparison.
  - dotancohen 6y ago
    > could you dream of nasa celebrating SN8 plowing into > the ground as a raging success. Nobody is celebrating SN8 plowing into the ground. We are celebrating the fact that SN8 plowed into the correct square meter of ground. We also celebrate the fact that SN8 plowed into that particular meter of ground while oriented in the direction that we hoped, but barely dreamed, that it would be oriented.
    - onethought 6y ago
      That’s my point... I’m not saying space X is bad or irresponsible, they are just different (and I think in a good way). Agree SN8 was amazing! And something NASA would never have done. Nor would they livestream it, nor keep it available on their website.

curiousllama 6y ago

>Things like the ISS, JWST, etc are all one-off projects, and they cannot be allowed to fail True > "Public bad private good" isn't a coherent strategy Also true Still, an infinite series of one-off projects comprise a continuous market. If SpaceX royally screws up one project, then yes, the public is left holding the bag _on that project_. But you know who's getting a lot fewer projects? SpaceX. A federal gov't monopoly isn't the answer, just as abolishing NASA isn't the answer. Both are good. But... SpaceX is proving they can launch cheaper, quicker, and just as safely - isn't that a thing worth encouraging?

redis_mlc 6y ago
> SpaceX is proving they can launch cheaper, quicker, and just as safely - isn't that a thing worth encouraging? No because there isn't a launch demand large enough to justify what SpaceX is trying to perfect, and all of Musk's projects are welfare queens. HNers confuse the entertainment value of watching rockets get reused with actual space delivery - which is exactly backwards. If you're confused by the above, what is SpaceX going to do with their launch capacity after Starlink?
onethought 6y ago
But space x work in spite of the nasa system... could you dream of nasa celebrating SN8 plowing into the ground as a raging success... it’s a huge cultural shift, not so much driven by private sector competition (Honestly who competes with space x?), more to do with leadership style. BlueOrigin is a perfect Nasa 2.0 comparison.
- dotancohen 6y ago
  > could you dream of nasa celebrating SN8 plowing into > the ground as a raging success. Nobody is celebrating SN8 plowing into the ground. We are celebrating the fact that SN8 plowed into the correct square meter of ground. We also celebrate the fact that SN8 plowed into that particular meter of ground while oriented in the direction that we hoped, but barely dreamed, that it would be oriented.
  - onethought 6y ago
    That’s my point... I’m not saying space X is bad or irresponsible, they are just different (and I think in a good way). Agree SN8 was amazing! And something NASA would never have done. Nor would they livestream it, nor keep it available on their website.