No strategy is perfect if you have imperfect information. You just choose between different risk profiles. Probably the simplest strategy would be to always as

No strategy is perfect if you have imperfect information. You just choose between different risk profiles. Probably the simplest strategy would be to always ask for the amount you curently make, plus 30% or 50%. And keep interviewing once in a while even if you are okay with your current job. If you asked for less than you could get, the next jump will fix it. Then don't increase your expenses, save the extra money, retire early.