One of the most frequent question we ask our clients is "What's the cost of a false [positive/negative]?" and "How do we know a prediction is correct?". We work

One of the most frequent question we ask our clients is "What's the cost of a false [positive/negative]?" and "How do we know a prediction is correct?". We work with them to see the whole system and outcomes of our predictions, down to the human actions. For example, in a project where failing to predict something would result in costs up to $100 million and wasting two months, and catastrophic consequences, but a false positive would result in an engineer waking up to check, it is acceptable to have false positives. Yes, it may be inconvenient, but compared to having nothing and the engineers telling you it's okay to bother them because one of catastrophic consequences is they may lose their life, the system can cry wolf. In other projects, not so much. And in other projects, you're not dealing with consequences of that magnitude.