7 ms·

VW has (properly) announced that their end date is 2026. I feel like this is an accurate reading between the lines and it will be announced.

perardi 6y ago
Sort of? https://www.thedrive.com/news/25299/volkswagen-says-its-last-internal-combustion-engine-will-debut-in-2026 https://www.thedrive.com/news/25299/volkswagen-says-its-last... The gasoline engines that debut in 2026 will be the “last generation” of internal combustion engines. Given the lifespan of these models, I think they’ll overshoot a 2030 target. (I will personally eat my hat if they can actually sell a profitable electric Golf-class vehicle in 2026. The margins ain’t there yet.)
- spockz 6y ago
  Isn’t the id3 profitable? Maybe not by much but I can hardly imagine them selling a car at a net loss. Edit: the id3 is the electric counterpart to the golf.
  - perardi 6y ago
    They claim it will be profitable. And it may be right now… …given they are only selling the most expensive model, at $42,000. (Before tax credits.) That’s a fair bit more expensive than a gas Golf. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a33540804/2021-vw-id3-ev-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a33540804/2021-vw-id3-e...
    - leetcrew 6y ago
      yikes, you'd have to be really committed to buying an EV to choose that over a golf R at that price. I guess the tax credit softens things a bit.
      - perardi 6y ago
        And I’m sure the CO2 taxes and fuel taxes in Europe weight the equation as well. But yeah, quite the price difference at the sticker.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - spockz 6y ago
        See my other comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25876431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25876431, at least in the Netherlands the price difference for the same trim is negligible. Moreover, you might still be eligible for the €4K subsidy from the government.
    - spockz 6y ago
      In the Netherlands the base Golf starts at €27k. When you customise that to the trim you get stock on the id3 st/plus (st little less, plus more advanced extras) you get to €42382 (config code 8N1B7B) which is not that different from the €43k for the ST and €44k for the Plus. I can imagine that the Golf being known tech will have a larger profit margin indeed. In the other hand, most of the extras in the id3 are shared technology anyways.
  - kjksf 6y ago
    "Volkswagen expects to lose about €3000 ($4730) on every ID hatch sold, with profitability forecast to begin around 2025." https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/ https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses...
  - usrusr 6y ago
    Fleet emission rules have the weird (but entirely intended!) effect that they make it economic to sell (nominally or actually) low emission cars at a loss if they compensate highly profitable high-emission cars elsewhere in the portfolio. Originally this meant that small economy cars got subsidized by expensive guzzlers, but with regulations clamping down on emissions ever harder and with the "Tesla insight" that electric cars just don't work on a budget (not just plain battery cost, also what if you don't have a convenient garage and all that), it's flipping over to electrics from the premium brand in the portfolio cross-subsidizing ICE for the less affluent (e.g. Audi electrics compensating for Seat four cylinders)
  - joking 6y ago
    maybe not by itself, but it reduces the average emissions for the fleet so they are able to sell other vehicles with more margin.
- walshemj 6y ago
  Some pre ww2 generations of ICE's lasted for decades after ww2 the British O series was one mentioned when I did mech eng at collage in the 1980's

perardi 6y ago

Sort of? https://www.thedrive.com/news/25299/volkswagen-says-its-last-internal-combustion-engine-will-debut-in-2026 https://www.thedrive.com/news/25299/volkswagen-says-its-last... The gasoline engines that debut in 2026 will be the “last generation” of internal combustion engines. Given the lifespan of these models, I think they’ll overshoot a 2030 target. (I will personally eat my hat if they can actually sell a profitable electric Golf-class vehicle in 2026. The margins ain’t there yet.)

spockz 6y ago
Isn’t the id3 profitable? Maybe not by much but I can hardly imagine them selling a car at a net loss. Edit: the id3 is the electric counterpart to the golf.
- perardi 6y ago
  They claim it will be profitable. And it may be right now… …given they are only selling the most expensive model, at $42,000. (Before tax credits.) That’s a fair bit more expensive than a gas Golf. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a33540804/2021-vw-id3-ev-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a33540804/2021-vw-id3-e...
  - leetcrew 6y ago
    yikes, you'd have to be really committed to buying an EV to choose that over a golf R at that price. I guess the tax credit softens things a bit.
    - perardi 6y ago
      And I’m sure the CO2 taxes and fuel taxes in Europe weight the equation as well. But yeah, quite the price difference at the sticker.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - spockz 6y ago
      See my other comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25876431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25876431, at least in the Netherlands the price difference for the same trim is negligible. Moreover, you might still be eligible for the €4K subsidy from the government.
  - spockz 6y ago
    In the Netherlands the base Golf starts at €27k. When you customise that to the trim you get stock on the id3 st/plus (st little less, plus more advanced extras) you get to €42382 (config code 8N1B7B) which is not that different from the €43k for the ST and €44k for the Plus. I can imagine that the Golf being known tech will have a larger profit margin indeed. In the other hand, most of the extras in the id3 are shared technology anyways.
- kjksf 6y ago
  "Volkswagen expects to lose about €3000 ($4730) on every ID hatch sold, with profitability forecast to begin around 2025." https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses/ https://www.caradvice.com.au/751743/volkswagen-id-neo-losses...
- usrusr 6y ago
  Fleet emission rules have the weird (but entirely intended!) effect that they make it economic to sell (nominally or actually) low emission cars at a loss if they compensate highly profitable high-emission cars elsewhere in the portfolio. Originally this meant that small economy cars got subsidized by expensive guzzlers, but with regulations clamping down on emissions ever harder and with the "Tesla insight" that electric cars just don't work on a budget (not just plain battery cost, also what if you don't have a convenient garage and all that), it's flipping over to electrics from the premium brand in the portfolio cross-subsidizing ICE for the less affluent (e.g. Audi electrics compensating for Seat four cylinders)
- joking 6y ago
  maybe not by itself, but it reduces the average emissions for the fleet so they are able to sell other vehicles with more margin.
walshemj 6y ago
Some pre ww2 generations of ICE's lasted for decades after ww2 the British O series was one mentioned when I did mech eng at collage in the 1980's