4 ms·

Sometime before 2030? Wow, don’t move too fast, Audi.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
wongarsu 6y ago
That seems like a decent timeline to plan factory capacity and set R&D priorities. And once you have made those plans you might as well announce them if it's a topic that can make the frontpage of hacker news.
S_A_P 6y ago
In car development cycles 9 years is pretty damn quick. If you truly understand the scope of how hard it is to build cars and completely switch your factory tooling and the capex involved you may feel differently...
- symlinkk 6y ago
  And how long did it take Tesla? It feels like these giant automakers are just slow and old fashioned
  - aidenn0 6y ago
    ... 9 years? Tesla was founded in 2003 and released the Model S in 2012. [edit] about 15 years to get to the monthly volume that the A4, 6, and 8 are manufactured.
  - InitialLastName 6y ago
    From a glance at wikipedia, Tesla took 5 years (2003 to 2008) from founding to (limited) production of the Roadster, and were under no expectation to get money or build other cars during that time. Then they built what appears to be a total of 2400 of them. The Model S was announced in 2012 as their first "mass produced" road car (and they don't appear to have broken 100K cars in a year until ~2017), so that's 15 years to get anywhere near the scale of a grown-up car manufacturer. To reiterate, they didn't have to support other production in any of that time, and they didn't have to make any sort of profit during any of that time. To compare, Audi spits out ~2m cars a year, and can't just stop selling cars to retool their factories.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    Audi sells almost four times the number of cars that Tesla sells annually, and in my opinion it's likely that we will see some ICE models sold alongside EVs as the world slowly transitions away from gasoline engines. Also, Tesla's growth is not an overnight story.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    Some would say that Tesla is still learning how to put together a car.
    - Schiendelman 6y ago
      And it turns out that knowing how to put together a car wasn’t a prerequisite to launching. :)
      - Hamuko 6y ago
        Yeah, you just have to convince you that doors that are so misaligned that they eat into the paint is normal.
        Schiendelman 6y ago
        Their sales tell us that they don’t have to do that, apparently!
somesoftdev 6y ago
Living in a big Eastern European city with on-street parking I don't think I'll have a place to charge an EV by 2030. On the bright side I don't think I'll be buying 2030 cars before 2045, so I'm good for now :)
- silon42 6y ago
  At which point battery will be severely range degraded... IMO Li-ion is a mistake for Europe... LFP (LifePo4) would probably be better for longevity and adequate for range... I understand it's probably needed for US due to longer distances, but for Europe LFP would be a better compromise IMO.
- dzhiurgis 6y ago
  What makes you’ll still have street parking then..? Cities in Europe are waking up and pushing cars out for good. Hope it’s sooner than later, especially in old towns.
eps 6y ago
They need time. I would love to have an Audi that looks like one, feels like one and drives like one, but electric. I looked at what they have now and there's no sense in purchasing it because it gets 30% less mileage on full charge than a Tesla. So technology-wise, where it really actually matters, they are way behind. No doubts they will catch up, but they will need time.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

That seems like a decent timeline to plan factory capacity and set R&D priorities. And once you have made those plans you might as well announce them if it's a topic that can make the frontpage of hacker news.

S_A_P 6y ago

In car development cycles 9 years is pretty damn quick. If you truly understand the scope of how hard it is to build cars and completely switch your factory tooling and the capex involved you may feel differently...

symlinkk 6y ago
And how long did it take Tesla? It feels like these giant automakers are just slow and old fashioned
- aidenn0 6y ago
  ... 9 years? Tesla was founded in 2003 and released the Model S in 2012. [edit] about 15 years to get to the monthly volume that the A4, 6, and 8 are manufactured.
- InitialLastName 6y ago
  From a glance at wikipedia, Tesla took 5 years (2003 to 2008) from founding to (limited) production of the Roadster, and were under no expectation to get money or build other cars during that time. Then they built what appears to be a total of 2400 of them. The Model S was announced in 2012 as their first "mass produced" road car (and they don't appear to have broken 100K cars in a year until ~2017), so that's 15 years to get anywhere near the scale of a grown-up car manufacturer. To reiterate, they didn't have to support other production in any of that time, and they didn't have to make any sort of profit during any of that time. To compare, Audi spits out ~2m cars a year, and can't just stop selling cars to retool their factories.
- totalZero 6y ago
  Audi sells almost four times the number of cars that Tesla sells annually, and in my opinion it's likely that we will see some ICE models sold alongside EVs as the world slowly transitions away from gasoline engines. Also, Tesla's growth is not an overnight story.
- Hamuko 6y ago
  Some would say that Tesla is still learning how to put together a car.
  - Schiendelman 6y ago
    And it turns out that knowing how to put together a car wasn’t a prerequisite to launching. :)
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      Yeah, you just have to convince you that doors that are so misaligned that they eat into the paint is normal.
      - Schiendelman 6y ago
        Their sales tell us that they don’t have to do that, apparently!

somesoftdev 6y ago

Living in a big Eastern European city with on-street parking I don't think I'll have a place to charge an EV by 2030. On the bright side I don't think I'll be buying 2030 cars before 2045, so I'm good for now :)

silon42 6y ago
At which point battery will be severely range degraded... IMO Li-ion is a mistake for Europe... LFP (LifePo4) would probably be better for longevity and adequate for range... I understand it's probably needed for US due to longer distances, but for Europe LFP would be a better compromise IMO.
dzhiurgis 6y ago
What makes you’ll still have street parking then..? Cities in Europe are waking up and pushing cars out for good. Hope it’s sooner than later, especially in old towns.

eps 6y ago

They need time. I would love to have an Audi that looks like one, feels like one and drives like one, but electric. I looked at what they have now and there's no sense in purchasing it because it gets 30% less mileage on full charge than a Tesla. So technology-wise, where it really actually matters, they are way behind. No doubts they will catch up, but they will need time.