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(Disclaimer: I hold very long positions on TSLA.) > Tesla or one of the Chinese or Indian manufacturers who produce low-end EVs in higher quantity than Tesla
by DaiPlusPlus 6y ago
(Disclaimer: I hold very long positions on TSLA.)
> Tesla or one of the Chinese or Indian manufacturers who produce low-end EVs in higher quantity than Tesla
I don't see Tesla ever becoming a gargantuan multinational carmaker giant like Toyota or GM - it's just not in their corporate ethos. I compare Tesla to Apple: they're technological leaders who set the benchmarks (and own the patents) but who also keep a relatively small and simple product matrix. There's loads of computer form-factors that Apple doesn't produce products for (e.g. rugged laptops, industrial control computers, "affordable" computers, and so on) - the demand for these products which are typically lower-margin are met by other manufacturers and I see Tesla being fine with this: let Toyota, GM, etc stress over meeting demand for a sub-$30k BEV while making hardly any profit.
I think the importance of self-driving / autonomous cars should also be considered. GM has Cruise, but Toyota, Ford, Honda, etc are either uninterested for some reason, or hoping Google or Apple will license them their Waymo or Titan system, or playing catchup very, very slowly - given Tesla is looking like they'll make their FSD an open-beta this year (and a public 1.0 release before the year's end, I hope!) that further widens their moat and with their current (overinflated, I admit) valuation that could see them buy-out a smaller carmarker to cement themselves should anything detrimental happen in the medium-term.
- btilly 6y agoYou might not see it, but that is what is required to justify the stock market price. And the vision of becoming that is not exactly new. See https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-j... for Elon Musk laying out that plan back in 2006. And he's been sticking to the roadmap. For example that blog post was the first public announcement that they would eventually produce a family sedan called the Model 3. And indeed they eventually produced a family sedan..and called it the Model 3.
- DaiPlusPlus 6y ago> See https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-j https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-j... for Elon Musk laying out that plan back in 2006. Oh wow, I never saw that, but that's exactly what I saw they were doing and now everything makes sense. Given they've been literally telegraphing their moves right-up-until the decision to do self-driving tech, I'm surprised bigger automakers haven't reacted at all until now, at which point they're lagging so far behind it's just depressing.
- xiphias2 6y agoIn the updated roadmap Elon realized that full autonomy will be ready before the 20 years that it takes to switch all current cars to electric, so it's more important than having the cheapest possible car.