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This is gonna suck for Tesla. More and more competitors are jumping at the EV market with their own unique brands. The idea that Tesla has an economic moat is

by f430 6y ago

This is gonna suck for Tesla. More and more competitors are jumping at the EV market with their own unique brands. The idea that Tesla has an economic moat is laughable. GM also thought they were untouchable. Where are they now?

smileysteve 6y ago
The battery factory and superchargers are the moats that Tesla has. The cars, they're just the providing a market for the above
- f430 6y ago
  well they are in big trouble because Samsung, Toyota have come up with superior batteries and they are now ramping up production.
nickik 6y ago
Wow, what nonsense. This is a very low volume car at best. This is not Tesla competition, VW is. There are already tons of EV companies and all the big automakers are already producing EV as well. Just in terms of pure electric vehicle you have Rivian, Lucid in the US, there is Xpeng, NIU and others in China, and those are already valued in the billions. Tesla skeptics have been saying 'competition is coming' for literally 6 years now. I literally read that story every single year. And in those 6 years Tesla increased its global market share every single year. Comparing Tesla and GM makes no sense what so ever, GM was toppled like 100 years, like 30 years after it has peaked in sales. Tesla on the other hand is more like a startup growing year over year by around 40%. Based on your other comment you have some believe that some other companies might simply show up with superior batteries and massively improve on what Tesla (and others have). This will not actually happen if you understand how the battery industry works. And even if it does, it would take year and year after the first car with a new battery is produced, to reach anywhere close to real volume production. (You seem to believe they are 'ramping up production now, which is simply false no idea where you got this from). Go look at QuantumScape manufacturing plan and even if you assume Toyota or somebody will get there twice as fast (not very likely) the numbers will not actually be enough to be mainstream. Toyota has been talking about their solid state tech for years and no car with it will come out for years. Tesla on the other hand has a 30ish% silicon anode battery going in huge volume production this year and the amount of silicon will grow every year after tat. And the main advantage of silicon anodes is that you can put them into traditional factory, you know all those 10s of billions of factories that are being built right now (compared to 10s of millions for solid state factories). That is why Tesla and many others, including just as many startups (SILA for example) bet on silicon anodes and not solid state. My bet is that by 2030 the majority of EV produced will not be solid state, rather traditional but with a high silicon graphite anode. Availability of batteries will be the moat and will continue to be so for many more years. Just in terms of material sourcing alone there is a huge bottle neck. > Where are they now? GM still exits and still produces a huge amount of cars, like millions, including electric cars. They are building a copy of the Tesla Nevada factory (ie 35GW per year plant)
- f430 6y ago
  I was not speaking specifically of DeLorean but the fact that more and more major manufacturers have begun testing the waters (none of the makers you listed I consider are major in anyway they will be crushed first along with Tesla). We are witnessing the calm before the storm which lot of Tesla fans seem to be be displaying myopia for. You simply don't know what these automotive giants are planning (possibly colluding), have been planning but what is certain is that they signaled mass production of EV vehicles.
  - nickik 6y ago
    I bet you I have spend much more time then you analyzing. And I know about all the different targets from all the different car makers. They actually have public plans of how many EV they will build (and very often they actually fall short of their own plans). More importantly I know about global battery capacity and how new capacity gets added and how much. I also know how much lithium, cobalt and nickel is mined and how much needs to be mined for the global industry. You still believe that Tesla is some small player that is gone get crushed by the larger competition. Tesla has a higher market cap, easier time to raise cash, is the largest consumer of Li-Ion, has the largest long term supply contracts for materials, is close partner to all major battery producers (LG,CATL,Panasonic) and they are by far the most vertically integrated and they will soon add their own batteries to mix. In a 3-4 years Tesla will be one of the bigger battery producers in the world themselves. We also know have a good idea how long it takes car makers to produce new vehicles and secure the supply chain. Look at 'all in on EV' GM, they are building a massive battery factory that by 2025 will be smaller then Giga Nevada is right now. In that same time Tesla plans to build another factory that will more then double or triple output of current Nevada and Giga Nevada will continue to grow as well. Ford has no supply chain at all in North America and relies on LG in Poland. We know about how much output is planned from there and most of that is not for Ford. Ford has already realized that their idea of just 'buying what in the market' will limited them a huge amount. Batteries can not be magically created, nor can lithium mines. We already know about all the battery factories that will go online and we know where they will send most of their supply. Nobody will catch up to Tesla in the next couple years.

by f430 6y ago

smileysteve 6y ago

The battery factory and superchargers are the moats that Tesla has. The cars, they're just the providing a market for the above

f430 6y ago
well they are in big trouble because Samsung, Toyota have come up with superior batteries and they are now ramping up production.

nickik 6y ago

Wow, what nonsense. This is a very low volume car at best. This is not Tesla competition, VW is. There are already tons of EV companies and all the big automakers are already producing EV as well. Just in terms of pure electric vehicle you have Rivian, Lucid in the US, there is Xpeng, NIU and others in China, and those are already valued in the billions. Tesla skeptics have been saying 'competition is coming' for literally 6 years now. I literally read that story every single year. And in those 6 years Tesla increased its global market share every single year. Comparing Tesla and GM makes no sense what so ever, GM was toppled like 100 years, like 30 years after it has peaked in sales. Tesla on the other hand is more like a startup growing year over year by around 40%. Based on your other comment you have some believe that some other companies might simply show up with superior batteries and massively improve on what Tesla (and others have). This will not actually happen if you understand how the battery industry works. And even if it does, it would take year and year after the first car with a new battery is produced, to reach anywhere close to real volume production. (You seem to believe they are 'ramping up production now, which is simply false no idea where you got this from). Go look at QuantumScape manufacturing plan and even if you assume Toyota or somebody will get there twice as fast (not very likely) the numbers will not actually be enough to be mainstream. Toyota has been talking about their solid state tech for years and no car with it will come out for years. Tesla on the other hand has a 30ish% silicon anode battery going in huge volume production this year and the amount of silicon will grow every year after tat. And the main advantage of silicon anodes is that you can put them into traditional factory, you know all those 10s of billions of factories that are being built right now (compared to 10s of millions for solid state factories). That is why Tesla and many others, including just as many startups (SILA for example) bet on silicon anodes and not solid state. My bet is that by 2030 the majority of EV produced will not be solid state, rather traditional but with a high silicon graphite anode. Availability of batteries will be the moat and will continue to be so for many more years. Just in terms of material sourcing alone there is a huge bottle neck. > Where are they now? GM still exits and still produces a huge amount of cars, like millions, including electric cars. They are building a copy of the Tesla Nevada factory (ie 35GW per year plant)

f430 6y ago
I was not speaking specifically of DeLorean but the fact that more and more major manufacturers have begun testing the waters (none of the makers you listed I consider are major in anyway they will be crushed first along with Tesla). We are witnessing the calm before the storm which lot of Tesla fans seem to be be displaying myopia for. You simply don't know what these automotive giants are planning (possibly colluding), have been planning but what is certain is that they signaled mass production of EV vehicles.
- nickik 6y ago
  I bet you I have spend much more time then you analyzing. And I know about all the different targets from all the different car makers. They actually have public plans of how many EV they will build (and very often they actually fall short of their own plans). More importantly I know about global battery capacity and how new capacity gets added and how much. I also know how much lithium, cobalt and nickel is mined and how much needs to be mined for the global industry. You still believe that Tesla is some small player that is gone get crushed by the larger competition. Tesla has a higher market cap, easier time to raise cash, is the largest consumer of Li-Ion, has the largest long term supply contracts for materials, is close partner to all major battery producers (LG,CATL,Panasonic) and they are by far the most vertically integrated and they will soon add their own batteries to mix. In a 3-4 years Tesla will be one of the bigger battery producers in the world themselves. We also know have a good idea how long it takes car makers to produce new vehicles and secure the supply chain. Look at 'all in on EV' GM, they are building a massive battery factory that by 2025 will be smaller then Giga Nevada is right now. In that same time Tesla plans to build another factory that will more then double or triple output of current Nevada and Giga Nevada will continue to grow as well. Ford has no supply chain at all in North America and relies on LG in Poland. We know about how much output is planned from there and most of that is not for Ford. Ford has already realized that their idea of just 'buying what in the market' will limited them a huge amount. Batteries can not be magically created, nor can lithium mines. We already know about all the battery factories that will go online and we know where they will send most of their supply. Nobody will catch up to Tesla in the next couple years.