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> no one has a viable alternative that's not vapor. you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scal

by f430 6y ago

> no one has a viable alternative that's not vapor. you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scale production of cars. look theres' nothing special about electric cars. they are mostly just battery + chasis + motor. It's just not 2016 anymore, they've all been quietly acquiring the know how and waiting for the battery before making their end game chess move. Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum please. I can't even have a conversation on HN anymore without getting flagged by people who can't handle criticisms or fear their narrative coming under attack. I get it. You bought Tesla stock, you made money, you are smart and everybody who drives ICE car are dumb. However, that still has nothing to do with how Tesla has never made a profit on its cars. Jim Chano is NOT wrong on this and lots of people overlook at this simple accounting trickery.

r00fus 6y ago
Disclaimer I own no TSLA, nor have I even purchased any shares, options or other derivatives as of this date aside from potentially 401k mutual funds (kinda wish this wasn't the case). That said, I simply don't think things have changed in the past 10 years such that an "automotive giant" is ready to out-tech Tesla. I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing. I did not intend my response as a personal attack; your reasoning (and verbiage) just seemed derivative, that's all.
- xedeon 6y ago
  > I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing. I share the same sentiment. From my own observations, Apple might have a better shot than the incumbents.
runawaybottle 6y ago
So, I think it’s important to not overlook the fact that we are here today talking about EVs because Tesla was a leader in this space. No other car company took this initiative with their decades of experience. I believe the the current crop of auto makers would have pushed for more fuel efficient ICE cars in the new green era. Toyota is not even revamping their Prius in any capacity to stay with the trends. I need to see this ‘flip the switch when we need to’ behavior to believe they truly can snap their fingers and flip the switch. The bet is they can’t.
xedeon 6y ago
>you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scale production of cars. I've been hearing this since 2010. It's now 2021. "Most experienced automakers race to put a car together in three years," said Angus MacKenzie, editor of Motor Trend magazine. "I can't see Tesla making more than a handful of these -- if any -- in 2012." Source: https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index.htm https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index.... >look theres' nothing special about electric cars. they are mostly just battery + chasis + motor. It's just not 2016 anymore, they've all been quietly acquiring the know how and waiting for the battery before making their end game chess move. "Faulty software set back a bid by the world’s largest car maker for electric-vehicle dominance" Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volkswagens-50-billion-plan-to-beat-tesla-short-circuited-11611073974 https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volkswagens-50-billion-plan... The inherent nature of EVs require a ton of software development. Which is incredibly hard to nail and requires top talent. This is a monumental task for the auto incumbents. The only way to solve it is to start from scratch. Without the risk of alienating their OEM suppliers and system integrators. > Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum please. I can't even have a conversation on HN anymore without getting flagged by people who can't handle criticisms or fear their narrative coming under attack. Maybe you should step back and reflect on the reason(s) why you're getting flagged. > Jim Chano [sic] is NOT wrong on this and lots of people overlook at this simple accounting trickery. So far, people like Jim Chanos and David Einhorn hemorrhaged money to the tune of $40B if you're not aware. Chanos also have (just very recently) closed his short position and converted them into PUT options. Sources: [1] https://www.wraltechwire.com/2021/01/06/tesla-short-sellers-take-a-record-40b-hit-thanks-to-elon-musks-remarkable-year/ https://www.wraltechwire.com/2021/01/06/tesla-short-sellers-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-chanos-is-no-longer-short-tesla-but-hes-still-betting-against-the-stock.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-chanos-is-no-longer-shor...
- f430 6y ago
  yeah but just because he lost money doesn't mean that he is wrong. You can be right and still lose money in the markets in the short run
  - 6y ago
omgwtfbyobbq 6y ago
It's fair to criticize Tesla's valuation, but they have recently become profitable, even excluding emissions credit sales. The problem most other manufacturers have is that EV sales undercut their ICE sales, and also undercut their customer's most profitable segment, vehicle repair/service. It's going to be hard for them to transition from ICE to EV.

by f430 6y ago

r00fus 6y ago

Disclaimer I own no TSLA, nor have I even purchased any shares, options or other derivatives as of this date aside from potentially 401k mutual funds (kinda wish this wasn't the case). That said, I simply don't think things have changed in the past 10 years such that an "automotive giant" is ready to out-tech Tesla. I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing. I did not intend my response as a personal attack; your reasoning (and verbiage) just seemed derivative, that's all.

xedeon 6y ago
> I do think Apple may be able to do it but I wonder what their motive would be in doing so, as margins are much lower in auto than computing. I share the same sentiment. From my own observations, Apple might have a better shot than the incumbents.

runawaybottle 6y ago

So, I think it’s important to not overlook the fact that we are here today talking about EVs because Tesla was a leader in this space. No other car company took this initiative with their decades of experience. I believe the the current crop of auto makers would have pushed for more fuel efficient ICE cars in the new green era. Toyota is not even revamping their Prius in any capacity to stay with the trends. I need to see this ‘flip the switch when we need to’ behavior to believe they truly can snap their fingers and flip the switch. The bet is they can’t.

xedeon 6y ago

>you underestimate the manufacturing capabilities of automtotive giants with far longer history at mass scale production of cars. I've been hearing this since 2010. It's now 2021. "Most experienced automakers race to put a car together in three years," said Angus MacKenzie, editor of Motor Trend magazine. "I can't see Tesla making more than a handful of these -- if any -- in 2012." Source: https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index.htm https://money.cnn.com/2010/06/29/technology/tesla_ipo/index.... >look theres' nothing special about electric cars. they are mostly just battery + chasis + motor. It's just not 2016 anymore, they've all been quietly acquiring the know how and waiting for the battery before making their end game chess move. "Faulty software set back a bid by the world’s largest car maker for electric-vehicle dominance" Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volkswagens-50-billion-plan-to-beat-tesla-short-circuited-11611073974 https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-volkswagens-50-billion-plan... The inherent nature of EVs require a ton of software development. Which is incredibly hard to nail and requires top talent. This is a monumental task for the auto incumbents. The only way to solve it is to start from scratch. Without the risk of alienating their OEM suppliers and system integrators. > Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum please. I can't even have a conversation on HN anymore without getting flagged by people who can't handle criticisms or fear their narrative coming under attack. Maybe you should step back and reflect on the reason(s) why you're getting flagged. > Jim Chano [sic] is NOT wrong on this and lots of people overlook at this simple accounting trickery. So far, people like Jim Chanos and David Einhorn hemorrhaged money to the tune of $40B if you're not aware. Chanos also have (just very recently) closed his short position and converted them into PUT options. Sources: [1] https://www.wraltechwire.com/2021/01/06/tesla-short-sellers-take-a-record-40b-hit-thanks-to-elon-musks-remarkable-year/ https://www.wraltechwire.com/2021/01/06/tesla-short-sellers-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-chanos-is-no-longer-short-tesla-but-hes-still-betting-against-the-stock.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-chanos-is-no-longer-shor...

f430 6y ago
yeah but just because he lost money doesn't mean that he is wrong. You can be right and still lose money in the markets in the short run
- 6y ago

omgwtfbyobbq 6y ago

It's fair to criticize Tesla's valuation, but they have recently become profitable, even excluding emissions credit sales. The problem most other manufacturers have is that EV sales undercut their ICE sales, and also undercut their customer's most profitable segment, vehicle repair/service. It's going to be hard for them to transition from ICE to EV.