4 ms·

Japan’s 20 billion subsidy seems very low for the entire industry. I also don’t know if Toyota’s serious about mass production infrastructure needed to ship EVs

Japan’s 20 billion subsidy seems very low for the entire industry. I also don’t know if Toyota’s serious about mass production infrastructure needed to ship EVs (seriously). Tesla is serious, and they are having trouble ramping up. These companies are not as serious, so how do they ever expect to ramp up when things get super serious? Will wait and see, but these companies are in jeopardy of getting dusted unless they start shipping something this year, like the Ford Mach E.

KLexpat 6y ago
Toyota is in a much better position than E.U. or U.S. manufacturers, except for Tesla. In the early 00's, the EU introduced emmissions regulations focused on Carbon, which didn't take sulphur into account. That's why Volkswagen and others like Mercedes focused so heavily on small diesel turbo engines, and explains the 2005-2010 or so diesel vehicle boom. American manufacturers mostly just made big gas sonking vehicles running on petrol Japanese manufacturers developed the Prius and other hybrid-electric products and were early to the game. Remember that the Toyota Prius Hybrid Electric vehicle was released in 1997. 1997! They currently sell four million units a year of Prius alone, and definitely have the knowledge + capacity to mass produce EV's
- r00fus 6y ago
  Explain Toyota's fascination with hydrogen fuel-cells. I loved my 2000s era Prius for what it was. I have lost any hope Toyota can catch up with Tesla now.
  - KLexpat 6y ago
    Battery tech wasn't that good back then. I think the consumer electronics battery boom (i.e. putting batteries in cellphones, laptops, etc) has advanced the tech considerably. Not my area of expertise though
- Gustomaximus 6y ago
  I think the bigger risk is in the self driving component. If Tesla or another company pull this off, catchup could take 10+ years for other companies. All else remaining equal who will buy a car you have to drive when you can avoid it, not least to add taxi, trucking and delivery service fleet purchases. In addition as this market progresses I imagine accidents per km will become a huge purchase decision when self driving is more commonplace so quality of system will be huge. Not many are going to buy the cars that have 3x the accidents or too many famous mess ups. Batteries are important but if I was an auto manufacturer the self driving component would keep me up at night.
  - tuatoru 6y ago
    > I think the bigger risk is in the self driving component. What self driving component? TFA is about batteries. If you mean, self driving is a bigger competitive advantage, and that's a bigger risk to Toyota/Japan Inc... well, no. Tesla sold 0.5M vehicles last year and is having trouble scaling up. The total addressable market is over 100M vehicles per year, and self driving isn't going to be a factor in most people's purchase decisions for at least a decade. (More cars are sold in Asia than in the USA.) > I imagine accidents per km will become a huge purchase decision when self driving is more commonplace. Accidents are reduced by advanced vehicle safety systems: "self stopping", not self driving. Those systems can be fitted--even retrofitted--to any vehicle. [Edit: and they are being fitted to more and more vehicles.] This is one of the most sad and tired arguments for self driving.
    - jazzyjackson 6y ago
      I've always been bearish on self driving tech ever being adequate, but you bring up a point I haven't heard before, how many people actually want their car to drive itself? I mean I love radar cruise in a traffic jam, but having to drive my car actually is not a problem.
      - macintux 6y ago
        If my car could drive itself on the interstate highways, I'd gladly take days-long road trips. Let it drive itself while I work or sleep. Not ideal for the environment, admittedly.
- runawaybottle 6y ago
  Obviously this is what we all want to hear. I just think there should have been iterations on the Prius by now that kept pushing what it means to be an EV. Fuel efficiency and MPG should no longer be in our dictionary.
imglorp 6y ago
Your same volume question for the Mach E: what are the volumes going to be like?
- runawaybottle 6y ago
  https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126230_how-many-mustang-mach-e-electric-suvs-will-ford-build-we-ve-got-numbers https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126230_how-many-mustan... So they are looking at 50k cars compared to 500k Tesla ships. This is something these car companies needed to start doing yesterday.
Xixi 6y ago
Volkswagen (the Group [1]) was very late to the EV game, yet in 2020 they sold 231,600 EVs [2]. About the same numbers as Tesla in 2018 (254,530 EVs). So they are only two years late. We will see if they manage to catch up, but they are certainly planning to. I agree that Japanese auto makers are not yet very serious in all this. I shall know, I was in the market for an EV and bought an hybrid because I didn't find anything in my price range, and the charging infrastructure in Japan is still severely lacking. Maybe it's because they are king in hybrid technology? So don't want/feel the need to switch. Cars are not a social network, it's the opposite of a winner take all market, so it probably doesn't matter much if they are not early in the market. On the software side if Tesla masters the self-driving car aspect then it's a completely different story. On the other hands if the technology comes from Apple or Alphabet, I think all car makers will be able to access the technology. Especially if it's Alphabet. [1] Volkswagen Group includes the brands Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche. [2] https://insideevs.com/news/465956/in-2020-volkswagen-group-sales-plugin-cars/ https://insideevs.com/news/465956/in-2020-volkswagen-group-s...

KLexpat 6y ago

Toyota is in a much better position than E.U. or U.S. manufacturers, except for Tesla. In the early 00's, the EU introduced emmissions regulations focused on Carbon, which didn't take sulphur into account. That's why Volkswagen and others like Mercedes focused so heavily on small diesel turbo engines, and explains the 2005-2010 or so diesel vehicle boom. American manufacturers mostly just made big gas sonking vehicles running on petrol Japanese manufacturers developed the Prius and other hybrid-electric products and were early to the game. Remember that the Toyota Prius Hybrid Electric vehicle was released in 1997. 1997! They currently sell four million units a year of Prius alone, and definitely have the knowledge + capacity to mass produce EV's

r00fus 6y ago
Explain Toyota's fascination with hydrogen fuel-cells. I loved my 2000s era Prius for what it was. I have lost any hope Toyota can catch up with Tesla now.
- KLexpat 6y ago
  Battery tech wasn't that good back then. I think the consumer electronics battery boom (i.e. putting batteries in cellphones, laptops, etc) has advanced the tech considerably. Not my area of expertise though
Gustomaximus 6y ago
I think the bigger risk is in the self driving component. If Tesla or another company pull this off, catchup could take 10+ years for other companies. All else remaining equal who will buy a car you have to drive when you can avoid it, not least to add taxi, trucking and delivery service fleet purchases. In addition as this market progresses I imagine accidents per km will become a huge purchase decision when self driving is more commonplace so quality of system will be huge. Not many are going to buy the cars that have 3x the accidents or too many famous mess ups. Batteries are important but if I was an auto manufacturer the self driving component would keep me up at night.
- tuatoru 6y ago
  > I think the bigger risk is in the self driving component. What self driving component? TFA is about batteries. If you mean, self driving is a bigger competitive advantage, and that's a bigger risk to Toyota/Japan Inc... well, no. Tesla sold 0.5M vehicles last year and is having trouble scaling up. The total addressable market is over 100M vehicles per year, and self driving isn't going to be a factor in most people's purchase decisions for at least a decade. (More cars are sold in Asia than in the USA.) > I imagine accidents per km will become a huge purchase decision when self driving is more commonplace. Accidents are reduced by advanced vehicle safety systems: "self stopping", not self driving. Those systems can be fitted--even retrofitted--to any vehicle. [Edit: and they are being fitted to more and more vehicles.] This is one of the most sad and tired arguments for self driving.
  - jazzyjackson 6y ago
    I've always been bearish on self driving tech ever being adequate, but you bring up a point I haven't heard before, how many people actually want their car to drive itself? I mean I love radar cruise in a traffic jam, but having to drive my car actually is not a problem.
    - macintux 6y ago
      If my car could drive itself on the interstate highways, I'd gladly take days-long road trips. Let it drive itself while I work or sleep. Not ideal for the environment, admittedly.
runawaybottle 6y ago
Obviously this is what we all want to hear. I just think there should have been iterations on the Prius by now that kept pushing what it means to be an EV. Fuel efficiency and MPG should no longer be in our dictionary.

imglorp 6y ago

Your same volume question for the Mach E: what are the volumes going to be like?

runawaybottle 6y ago
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126230_how-many-mustang-mach-e-electric-suvs-will-ford-build-we-ve-got-numbers https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126230_how-many-mustan... So they are looking at 50k cars compared to 500k Tesla ships. This is something these car companies needed to start doing yesterday.

Xixi 6y ago

Volkswagen (the Group [1]) was very late to the EV game, yet in 2020 they sold 231,600 EVs [2]. About the same numbers as Tesla in 2018 (254,530 EVs). So they are only two years late. We will see if they manage to catch up, but they are certainly planning to. I agree that Japanese auto makers are not yet very serious in all this. I shall know, I was in the market for an EV and bought an hybrid because I didn't find anything in my price range, and the charging infrastructure in Japan is still severely lacking. Maybe it's because they are king in hybrid technology? So don't want/feel the need to switch. Cars are not a social network, it's the opposite of a winner take all market, so it probably doesn't matter much if they are not early in the market. On the software side if Tesla masters the self-driving car aspect then it's a completely different story. On the other hands if the technology comes from Apple or Alphabet, I think all car makers will be able to access the technology. Especially if it's Alphabet. [1] Volkswagen Group includes the brands Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche. [2] https://insideevs.com/news/465956/in-2020-volkswagen-group-sales-plugin-cars/ https://insideevs.com/news/465956/in-2020-volkswagen-group-s...