4 ms·

IMO the likeliest explanation is the lethality of novichok is way overblown or generally misunderstood. Skripals' poisoning had a very similar progression (the

IMO the likeliest explanation is the lethality of novichok is way overblown or generally misunderstood. Skripals' poisoning had a very similar progression (the two targets survived after a coma [0], another inadvertently exposed person survived, one has died). Most anecdotes about Novichok's incredible lethality are stories out of Russia where use of Novichok was merely alleged. It's weird they'd botch 2 high profile assassination attempts like this if upping the dose a bit guarantees death. [0] I'm not too familiar with the exact mechanism that induces the coma. But common sense would tell me extended comas after which the patient makes a full recovery are an unusual phenomenon medically. Navalny's doctors seemed pretty unsure about his prospects too. Yet both Skripals and Navalny not only escaped death but had full recoveries from extended comas.

eindiran 6y ago
The point is that you want to use right on the edge of what is lethal, so they don't die quickly. Its possible that its way less lethal than people think, but the standard explanation is that they are still in the process of figuring out how to do assassinations efficiently with it (guaranteeing a kill, but delayed enough that its harder to piece together how it went down).
- hulitu 6y ago
  If KGB can not do assasinations effectively ... There are a lot of people falling from high buildings but they seem not to attract too much attention. I really think that they don't want him dead. If they really wanted him dead he wouldn'n let go to Germany.
  - nikolay 6y ago
    I won't be surprised if he's a puppet of Putin buying credibility with putting him in jail, failing to kill him, etc. I can expect anything from Putin.
jackweirdy 6y ago
Bear in mind, lethality of weapons like these has been based on measuring the mortality _without_ treatment, and all who survived received prompt treatment. Unfortunately Charley Rowley, who unwittingly discovered the container used by the Skripal’s poisoners, was not treated so promptly and later died https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/04/06/myth-busting-why-didnt-the-skripals-die-on-the-spot/ https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/04/06/myth-...
drzoltar 6y ago
It seems like the quantity of the dose, location of exposure and duration of exposure can drastically change the outcome [1]. The woman who sprayed Novichok-laced perfume on herself died, but the man got it on his palms and immediately wiped it off, thereby surviving. [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/novichok-how-are-victims-surviving-poisoning/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/novichok-how-are-vic...

eindiran 6y ago

The point is that you want to use right on the edge of what is lethal, so they don't die quickly. Its possible that its way less lethal than people think, but the standard explanation is that they are still in the process of figuring out how to do assassinations efficiently with it (guaranteeing a kill, but delayed enough that its harder to piece together how it went down).

hulitu 6y ago
If KGB can not do assasinations effectively ... There are a lot of people falling from high buildings but they seem not to attract too much attention. I really think that they don't want him dead. If they really wanted him dead he wouldn'n let go to Germany.
- nikolay 6y ago
  I won't be surprised if he's a puppet of Putin buying credibility with putting him in jail, failing to kill him, etc. I can expect anything from Putin.

jackweirdy 6y ago

Bear in mind, lethality of weapons like these has been based on measuring the mortality _without_ treatment, and all who survived received prompt treatment. Unfortunately Charley Rowley, who unwittingly discovered the container used by the Skripal’s poisoners, was not treated so promptly and later died https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/04/06/myth-busting-why-didnt-the-skripals-die-on-the-spot/ https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/04/06/myth-...

drzoltar 6y ago

It seems like the quantity of the dose, location of exposure and duration of exposure can drastically change the outcome [1]. The woman who sprayed Novichok-laced perfume on herself died, but the man got it on his palms and immediately wiped it off, thereby surviving. [1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/novichok-how-are-victims-surviving-poisoning/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/novichok-how-are-vic...