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You seem to be arguing that if FDA had begun widespread inoculation earlier with the current vaccines, variant COVID strains would not have arisen. But that's

You seem to be arguing that if FDA had begun widespread inoculation earlier with the current vaccines, variant COVID strains would not have arisen. But that's wrong on several levels. Even if we had started producing vaccine en-masse in March, it would still take many more months (several years) to inoculate everyone on the planet. These novel strains would still have arisen within that time frame. We would also have introduced additional problems that undertested therapies often suffer from and that the Chinese vaccine appears to have -- low efficacy. If quickly approved vaccines were no more than 50% efficacious on large fraction of the planet's peoples, herd immunity would take longer to accumulate and novel strains would still emerge. Of course, toxicity is another likelier outcome from undertesting a new vaccine. Others can assess that risk better than I. In short, when it comes to combating pestilence, there's no free lunch.

CWuestefeld 6y ago
You seem to be arguing that if FDA had begun widespread inoculation earlier with the current vaccines, variant COVID strains would not have arisen. My statement isn't quite that strong. It MAY NOT have arisen; it's all probabilities. Every time the virus is passed to another person, there's another opportunity for a mutation. If we could have driven the infection rate down sooner via vaccine, then there's some chance that it wouldn't have happened. Assuming ad arguendo that the new S. African strain is able to skirt the vaccines that are being distributed in America, what do we do? Wait another 11 months for a new formulation to be approved, and potentially for yet another slippery variant to arise? How do we get off that treadmill?
- randcraw 6y ago
  I sympathize. But vaccines are only one way to diminish the infection rate. Other options have not been employed to their maximum effect in the US, like distributing (and requiring) better masks, requiring mask wearing at all times when not at home, mandatory quarantine of infected people in encampments (as China and Singapore have done), and legal punishment of those who do not comply. Employing medical procedures which are probably unsafe is not the only solution left to us.

CWuestefeld 6y ago

You seem to be arguing that if FDA had begun widespread inoculation earlier with the current vaccines, variant COVID strains would not have arisen. My statement isn't quite that strong. It MAY NOT have arisen; it's all probabilities. Every time the virus is passed to another person, there's another opportunity for a mutation. If we could have driven the infection rate down sooner via vaccine, then there's some chance that it wouldn't have happened. Assuming ad arguendo that the new S. African strain is able to skirt the vaccines that are being distributed in America, what do we do? Wait another 11 months for a new formulation to be approved, and potentially for yet another slippery variant to arise? How do we get off that treadmill?

randcraw 6y ago
I sympathize. But vaccines are only one way to diminish the infection rate. Other options have not been employed to their maximum effect in the US, like distributing (and requiring) better masks, requiring mask wearing at all times when not at home, mandatory quarantine of infected people in encampments (as China and Singapore have done), and legal punishment of those who do not comply. Employing medical procedures which are probably unsafe is not the only solution left to us.