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On one hand it's incredible that we can make effective vaccines in such short order. But I'm worried about the iatrogenic risk of rapid, global vaccine roll-ou
by Tycho 6y ago
On one hand it's incredible that we can make effective vaccines in such short order.
But I'm worried about the iatrogenic risk of rapid, global vaccine roll-outs. Let's say in a few years someone identifies a virus with a similar threat profile to SARS-Cov-2. QUICK, vaccinate everyone... PHEW, dodged another lockdown/recession. Repeat, over and over, with ever greater efficiency. Until one day half the planet dies from some side effect.
- minikites 6y agoThe only other alternative is half the planet dying now.
- yaomtc 6y agoThat's a pretty crazy hypothetical you've got there. Any reason you think that might be remotely possible, despite the months of trials the COVID vaccines went through?
- beckingz 6y agoThe burden of proof is on the vaccine makers. Unfortunately, waiting to see if the vaccine has long term side effects means that we would not get the health benefits of a widespread rollout. Tough situation. Vaccination is probably the way to go.
- toast0 6y agoMonths of trials won't show effects that take years to notice.
- GloriousKoji 6y agoSame could be said of contracting COVID.
- toast0 6y agoYes, the option with the most safety data is to not contract a novel disease and not be admininstered a novel vaccine (of a novel type). Any option involving contracting the disease or being administered the vaccine has unknowable long term risks; and it's foolish to argue otherwise. That doesn't mean you can't argue about short and medium term risks; but if someone is worried about long term risks, pointing to the months of studies doesn't help at all. Given the known short and medium term risks, vaccination seems like a good plan, at least where there is community spread. In areas where the disease is controlled, the unknowable long term risks dominate, IMHO, and would make it a harder decision. Of course, lack of supply moots that question for now, there's more than enough people to vaccinate in areas with major caseload, so we don't have to think about vaccinations in places that are under control.
- Tycho 6y agoI'm not worried especially about this vaccine, I'm worried about the future state where we get too clever by half.
- tomjen3 6y agoI am explicitly not saying the vaccine does this, but I am personally more concerned about it having effects on the fertility of young people - it is not something we would discover in a relatively short trial, but it could spell disaster in a few years. Mind you there is no scientific reason it should do this, so why is my mind trying to make the worst possible scenarios?
- Tycho 6y agoBecause failure to consider worst case scenarios leads to extinction. The impulse to do so is why we survive.