3 ms·

Ah so its effectively like a flu wave but possibly more infectious, and with longer sick leave. Makes sense that this leads to labor shortages.

croon 6y ago
Like a flu... but with all the differences. A bike is like a car. It has wheels and you ride it from point A to B. > While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. > While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... And aside from that, a large problem with covid-19 is the DDoS on the health care system stemming from the severe infection rates, which can create large second order effects.
ehnto 6y ago
Almost 0.1% of the US population has died from COVID so far, coupled with changes in total capacity due to COVID restrictions and changes to how workplaces operate, it's a lot more impactful than a flu wave to business operations. I feel you are being willfully ignorant, and I have to suggest you look into the severity of COVID and the statistics so far. It's been going on for over a year now, the information is out there.
- jaywalk 6y ago
  Almost 0.1% of the US population has died with COVID.
  - cygx 6y ago
    Check excess mortality for 2020: ourworldindata.org doesn't have the figures for Dec yet, but we'll end up with something close to 440k additional deaths compared to the average 2015-19. So 0.1% probably is the correct order of magnitude.
    - nonfamous 6y ago
      If anything, it’s an underestimate. Regular flu deaths are way down for 2020 (masks and social distancing work!), but are included at their normal rate in the baseline for excess mortality. Same applies at smaller scale for other factors in baseline mortality, like traffic deaths and industrial accidents, that have also been suppressed by policy and behavior changes due to the pandemic.
- MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
  I'm not debating whether COVID is dangerous for certain people - it clearly is. I would simply expect dock workers to not be an at-risk group. Remember that many younger people aren't affected at all, and may even be asymptomatic. Your virtue signalling is not welcome here.

croon 6y ago

Like a flu... but with all the differences. A bike is like a car. It has wheels and you ride it from point A to B. > While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. > While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... And aside from that, a large problem with covid-19 is the DDoS on the health care system stemming from the severe infection rates, which can create large second order effects.

ehnto 6y ago

Almost 0.1% of the US population has died from COVID so far, coupled with changes in total capacity due to COVID restrictions and changes to how workplaces operate, it's a lot more impactful than a flu wave to business operations. I feel you are being willfully ignorant, and I have to suggest you look into the severity of COVID and the statistics so far. It's been going on for over a year now, the information is out there.

jaywalk 6y ago
Almost 0.1% of the US population has died with COVID.
- cygx 6y ago
  Check excess mortality for 2020: ourworldindata.org doesn't have the figures for Dec yet, but we'll end up with something close to 440k additional deaths compared to the average 2015-19. So 0.1% probably is the correct order of magnitude.
  - nonfamous 6y ago
    If anything, it’s an underestimate. Regular flu deaths are way down for 2020 (masks and social distancing work!), but are included at their normal rate in the baseline for excess mortality. Same applies at smaller scale for other factors in baseline mortality, like traffic deaths and industrial accidents, that have also been suppressed by policy and behavior changes due to the pandemic.
MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
I'm not debating whether COVID is dangerous for certain people - it clearly is. I would simply expect dock workers to not be an at-risk group. Remember that many younger people aren't affected at all, and may even be asymptomatic. Your virtue signalling is not welcome here.