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Based on the most active thread here, I think this article has accomplished its goal, which is to lead (smart) casual readers to believe that the congestion and

Based on the most active thread here, I think this article has accomplished its goal, which is to lead (smart) casual readers to believe that the congestion and associated delay are due to increased exports to the US because of the predicted increase in consumer spending. (This is a trade publication that wants advertisers for people who want to buy more freight! Demand is a great reason why!) In reality, I'm almost 100% sure that the real reason for the congestion is referred to in the one sentence from Hapag-Lloyd - which is that port workers in SoCal have been decimated by COVID. The massive spike of COVID cases in Los Angeles County that started ~11/1 and really hit hard by 12/1 (discussed many places), which has disproportionally impacted both POCs and workers in heavy-labor industries, is certainly impacting the supply of workers to offload and process. I've heard this anecdotally from two friends who run freight forwarding companies in SoCal. It's also worth noting that the logic around shipping ahead to predict a generic increase in consumer spending doesn't play out. Planning for a single date (Halloween costumes, Christmas toys) - of course, ship it as close to the deadline as you can, but don't f'ing miss it. But for a rolling, undated, potential increase in spending? In a world of relatively fast manufacturing, ~4 weeks to get your items from the Shenzhen terminal to offloaded in Long Beach, and with storage costs being exponentially higher in the US than in China - it makes zero sense for what will be a diffuse wave (optimistically!) of consumer spending. No major manufacturer/retailer produces that far ahead of unproven demand, and no smaller one can afford to do it (and it's not like you can get money for this). This is a staffing shortage, pure and simple. It's not going to get better for a while. [Added 30min later] BTW, I didn't see this before I posted, but Ryan Petersen (CEO of Flexport) shared on Twitter today "Yesterday there were 800 COVID-19 cases amongst the 9,000 ILWU employees who run the port of LA / Long Beach. And there was already a backlog of 29 container ships waiting to unload in the port." https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1351942493907034112 https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1351942493907034112

Dunedan 6y ago
How would that explain the increased amount of TEU volume in the "Port of Los Angeles Weekly Volumes" chart shown on the site?
- scottru 6y ago
  It's answered (I believe) right below the chart: "Importantly, the data does not solely include TEUs arriving in a particular week. It also includes TEUs arriving in prior weeks that the port expects to handle in the stated week." In other words, it includes the backlog that's building up. "Expects to handle" isn't the same as "can handle." That's going to go up until the backlog is cleared. (There is data that could prove me right or wrong, but the article doesn't provide it.)
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
fapjacks 6y ago
I am on board (badum-psh!) with diffuse causality for massive and complex systems like "retail-level" (or consumer-level) import/export trade, but your point would be more persuasive with a trailhead of links demonstrating to what degree this is affecting the outcome. Because it's true that American consumers spent more during this past holiday season than ever before, with CNBC quoting the National Retail Federation (retail trade group) as saying a driver of increased buying was that people aren't spending on travel, entertainment, and services. [0] Also, unemployment has gone down significantly from those crazy levels from last spring. [1] It also appears the port itself said in late November that there was an increase of 22% in container traffic to the port. [2] However the LA Times makes the same claim that you are making, but without citing any source. Edit to add two things: Interesting to note the LA Times also implied that the federal government might be investigating some potential shenanigans around empty container availability. [3] Also, any idea where the tweet you posted is getting those numbers? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/retail-trade-group-forecasts-holiday-sales-rising-3point6percent-to-5point2percent.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/retail-trade-group-forecasts... [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm [2] https://gcaptain.com/covid-restocking-surge-continues-at-port-of-los-angeles/ https://gcaptain.com/covid-restocking-surge-continues-at-por... [3] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-coronavirus-logistics-ports https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-c...
- jeromegv 6y ago
  Didn’t you read the article? COVID is definitely part of the equation and listed as a cause under “Congestion cause”. “Terminals are working with limited labor and split shifts,” it said, asserting that this is related to COVID. “This labor shortage affects all terminals’ TAT [turnaround time] for truckers, inter-terminal transfers and the number of daily appointments available for gate transactions and delays our vessel operations.”
  - fapjacks 6y ago
    I didn't assert that COVID wasn't part of the equation, and it's nicer for everybody if we don't assume somebody hasn't read an article (though I agree it's a natural thing to wonder sometimes).
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
bitcharmer 6y ago
> which has disproportionally impacted both POCs and workers in heavy-labor industries What does POC mean in this context? I come from software engineering and in my world it is an acronym for proof of concept, but it looks like it's about something entirely different here.
- calvano915 6y ago
  In this context I believe it's people of color. In medical fields it refers to plan of care.
  - iNate2000 6y ago
    I think you’re right, but given the topic of the article, I had assumed “ports of call”.
- bzb6 6y ago
  It’s a far right dog whistle. He means to say “blacks and workers”, as if blacks didn’t work.
MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
> port workers in SoCal have been decimated by COVID The general narrative seems to be that unless you're older and/or obese, Covid doesn't usually affect you much (yes there are outliers). I would imagine the port workers to be physically fit - is this a misconception?
- mweberxyz 6y ago
  COVID probably won't _kill_ you if you are young and fit -- but it can certainly leave you sick in bed for a week or so.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    Not to mention what's called "long covid" - basically even if you are an athlete, you risk lung damage to an extent even a life of chain smoking can't achieve, and there have been reports of coronavirus passing the blood-brain barrier and damaging the central nerve system. Coronavirus has many, many, MANY ways of affecting a person for decades to come, and we're learning more about it every day. Edit: since I'm getting downvoted, I assume this comes from people who want sources, so here they are: - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lungs-scarring-smokers-lungs/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lungs-scarring-smokers-lu... - https://www.helmholtz.de/en/health/what-damage-is-potentially-left-behind-after-surviving-an-infection/ https://www.helmholtz.de/en/health/what-damage-is-potentiall...
    - cinntaile 6y ago
      It's not yet clear that covid can result in lung damage more severe than a life of chain smoking, this kind of long term research hasn't been done yet.
      - doikor 6y ago
        Not really sure if either can cause more severe lung damage then they do. The worst case end scenarios of both are your lungs being so damaged that it kills you. Hard to make it worse than that. Though one manages it in a few weeks while the other takes decades.
Proven 6y ago
It's not (just) a staffing shortage, it's that due to both the shutdowns and generous federal handouts people have been working less while buying more crap than ever. UBI v1 beta.
AniseAbyss 6y ago
I did a tour once and its basically people sitting in a control room running robots remotely. One of the first places where they used self driving cars as early as the 90s. And its all run very efficiently, they plan up to the hour when ships arrive and leave.
ehnto 6y ago
I walked away from the article thinking exactly that it was a reduced work capacity thanks to COVID, it's said as such in the article. Perhaps I skimmed some of the more leading paragraphs, but my takaway was the cause was decreased capacity at the ports.
matz1 6y ago
Massive spike doesn't mean anything. Most importantly, how many are actually sick. The solution are obvious, do not test people with asymptomatic/mild symptoms. A lot of people are forced to stay at home simply because positive test, even though they are not sick or already recovered from sick. Sure, some may say they can still infect other but the chance a low and even if they infected other, doesn't mean that the other people become sick too.
- nonfamous 6y ago
  The chance of someone positive for COVID infecting others is emphatically not low, compared to other diseases like influenza.
  - matz1 6y ago
    Sure, if it compared to other diseases like influenza it maybe higher but in general both are still low number and then you still have to multiply that probability of getting positive on test with probability of becoming actually stick, which is another low number.
WanderPanda 6y ago
> with storage costs being exponentially higher in the US than in China Can we please stop using „exponential“ like this? Maybe you meant orders of magnitude?
- dfrankow 6y ago
  Used to bother me too, as a mathematician. Then I learned about linguistics. If enough people use words a certain way, then it's vernacular. Sadly, I think this usage is long accepted.
  - UI_at_80x24 6y ago
    This is the same annoyance when you see somebody say: It cost 10X less if we use 'Y' over 'Z'. My brain always short circuits and says "I think they mean it costs 1/10th...." "There was a 5 times decease in crime..." uggh, just give me the damn numbers. Is crime now at 1/20th the previous level??? I know they are telling us it's less, and I don't even care about the story; but i waste brain power trying to grok what they really mean.
    - lisper 6y ago
      I'm as much of a grammar nazi as anyone, but I think this usage is defensible. 10 is ten times more than 1. So 1 is arguably ten times less than 10. Certainly there are more important things to fret about, like: "Tim went to the store with he and I.' Arrgghh!!!
      - recursive 6y ago
        Even "ten times more" isn't exactly clear in my opinion. 100% more is two times. 900% more is ten times. Ten times more is... eleven times? I try to say "{x} is ten times {y}", which is, as far as I can tell is unambiguous. (Mostly, what's ten times colder?)
        telotortium 6y ago
lots2learn 6y ago
False. Getting a container in China is very difficult right now and around 2-3x the normal cost. Supply chain constraints are stretched way past just the local ports.

Dunedan 6y ago

How would that explain the increased amount of TEU volume in the "Port of Los Angeles Weekly Volumes" chart shown on the site?

scottru 6y ago
It's answered (I believe) right below the chart: "Importantly, the data does not solely include TEUs arriving in a particular week. It also includes TEUs arriving in prior weeks that the port expects to handle in the stated week." In other words, it includes the backlog that's building up. "Expects to handle" isn't the same as "can handle." That's going to go up until the backlog is cleared. (There is data that could prove me right or wrong, but the article doesn't provide it.)

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

fapjacks 6y ago

I am on board (badum-psh!) with diffuse causality for massive and complex systems like "retail-level" (or consumer-level) import/export trade, but your point would be more persuasive with a trailhead of links demonstrating to what degree this is affecting the outcome. Because it's true that American consumers spent more during this past holiday season than ever before, with CNBC quoting the National Retail Federation (retail trade group) as saying a driver of increased buying was that people aren't spending on travel, entertainment, and services. [0] Also, unemployment has gone down significantly from those crazy levels from last spring. [1] It also appears the port itself said in late November that there was an increase of 22% in container traffic to the port. [2] However the LA Times makes the same claim that you are making, but without citing any source. Edit to add two things: Interesting to note the LA Times also implied that the federal government might be investigating some potential shenanigans around empty container availability. [3] Also, any idea where the tweet you posted is getting those numbers? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/retail-trade-group-forecasts-holiday-sales-rising-3point6percent-to-5point2percent.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/retail-trade-group-forecasts... [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm [2] https://gcaptain.com/covid-restocking-surge-continues-at-port-of-los-angeles/ https://gcaptain.com/covid-restocking-surge-continues-at-por... [3] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-coronavirus-logistics-ports https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-c...

jeromegv 6y ago
Didn’t you read the article? COVID is definitely part of the equation and listed as a cause under “Congestion cause”. “Terminals are working with limited labor and split shifts,” it said, asserting that this is related to COVID. “This labor shortage affects all terminals’ TAT [turnaround time] for truckers, inter-terminal transfers and the number of daily appointments available for gate transactions and delays our vessel operations.”
- fapjacks 6y ago
  I didn't assert that COVID wasn't part of the equation, and it's nicer for everybody if we don't assume somebody hasn't read an article (though I agree it's a natural thing to wonder sometimes).

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

bitcharmer 6y ago

> which has disproportionally impacted both POCs and workers in heavy-labor industries What does POC mean in this context? I come from software engineering and in my world it is an acronym for proof of concept, but it looks like it's about something entirely different here.

calvano915 6y ago
In this context I believe it's people of color. In medical fields it refers to plan of care.
- iNate2000 6y ago
  I think you’re right, but given the topic of the article, I had assumed “ports of call”.
bzb6 6y ago
It’s a far right dog whistle. He means to say “blacks and workers”, as if blacks didn’t work.

MrBuddyCasino 6y ago

> port workers in SoCal have been decimated by COVID The general narrative seems to be that unless you're older and/or obese, Covid doesn't usually affect you much (yes there are outliers). I would imagine the port workers to be physically fit - is this a misconception?

mweberxyz 6y ago
COVID probably won't _kill_ you if you are young and fit -- but it can certainly leave you sick in bed for a week or so.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  Not to mention what's called "long covid" - basically even if you are an athlete, you risk lung damage to an extent even a life of chain smoking can't achieve, and there have been reports of coronavirus passing the blood-brain barrier and damaging the central nerve system. Coronavirus has many, many, MANY ways of affecting a person for decades to come, and we're learning more about it every day. Edit: since I'm getting downvoted, I assume this comes from people who want sources, so here they are: - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lungs-scarring-smokers-lungs/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lungs-scarring-smokers-lu... - https://www.helmholtz.de/en/health/what-damage-is-potentially-left-behind-after-surviving-an-infection/ https://www.helmholtz.de/en/health/what-damage-is-potentiall...
  - cinntaile 6y ago
    It's not yet clear that covid can result in lung damage more severe than a life of chain smoking, this kind of long term research hasn't been done yet.
    - doikor 6y ago
      Not really sure if either can cause more severe lung damage then they do. The worst case end scenarios of both are your lungs being so damaged that it kills you. Hard to make it worse than that. Though one manages it in a few weeks while the other takes decades.

Proven 6y ago

It's not (just) a staffing shortage, it's that due to both the shutdowns and generous federal handouts people have been working less while buying more crap than ever. UBI v1 beta.

AniseAbyss 6y ago

I did a tour once and its basically people sitting in a control room running robots remotely. One of the first places where they used self driving cars as early as the 90s. And its all run very efficiently, they plan up to the hour when ships arrive and leave.

ehnto 6y ago

I walked away from the article thinking exactly that it was a reduced work capacity thanks to COVID, it's said as such in the article. Perhaps I skimmed some of the more leading paragraphs, but my takaway was the cause was decreased capacity at the ports.

matz1 6y ago

Massive spike doesn't mean anything. Most importantly, how many are actually sick. The solution are obvious, do not test people with asymptomatic/mild symptoms. A lot of people are forced to stay at home simply because positive test, even though they are not sick or already recovered from sick. Sure, some may say they can still infect other but the chance a low and even if they infected other, doesn't mean that the other people become sick too.

nonfamous 6y ago
The chance of someone positive for COVID infecting others is emphatically not low, compared to other diseases like influenza.
- matz1 6y ago
  Sure, if it compared to other diseases like influenza it maybe higher but in general both are still low number and then you still have to multiply that probability of getting positive on test with probability of becoming actually stick, which is another low number.

WanderPanda 6y ago

> with storage costs being exponentially higher in the US than in China Can we please stop using „exponential“ like this? Maybe you meant orders of magnitude?

dfrankow 6y ago
Used to bother me too, as a mathematician. Then I learned about linguistics. If enough people use words a certain way, then it's vernacular. Sadly, I think this usage is long accepted.
- UI_at_80x24 6y ago
  This is the same annoyance when you see somebody say: It cost 10X less if we use 'Y' over 'Z'. My brain always short circuits and says "I think they mean it costs 1/10th...." "There was a 5 times decease in crime..." uggh, just give me the damn numbers. Is crime now at 1/20th the previous level??? I know they are telling us it's less, and I don't even care about the story; but i waste brain power trying to grok what they really mean.
  - lisper 6y ago
    I'm as much of a grammar nazi as anyone, but I think this usage is defensible. 10 is ten times more than 1. So 1 is arguably ten times less than 10. Certainly there are more important things to fret about, like: "Tim went to the store with he and I.' Arrgghh!!!
    - recursive 6y ago
      Even "ten times more" isn't exactly clear in my opinion. 100% more is two times. 900% more is ten times. Ten times more is... eleven times? I try to say "{x} is ten times {y}", which is, as far as I can tell is unambiguous. (Mostly, what's ten times colder?)
      - telotortium 6y ago

lots2learn 6y ago

False. Getting a container in China is very difficult right now and around 2-3x the normal cost. Supply chain constraints are stretched way past just the local ports.