3 ms·
My read is that the 1-2% effect is an average effect of each instance where a parcel was replaced with denser market rate housing. Imagine what the effect size
by AaronFriel 6y ago
My read is that the 1-2% effect is an average effect of each instance where a parcel was replaced with denser market rate housing.
Imagine what the effect size would be if we had enough market rate housing built to increase supply by 100% within 500m. I imagine it's more than 1-2%.
- sudosysgen 6y agoIt's not realistic to increase supply by 100% within 500m. But sure, say we did. Assuming more or less linear increases, instead of 1-2% you get 10-20%. Let's also ignore the large temporary decrease in supply and price stickiness of rent. You "paused" rent increases by 1.5-3.5 years. For something that will likely take more than ten years to accomplish. And then there's not much more that can be done. If instead you increased supply by 30% in affordable housing (which is much more reasonable, and of course you could do more or add some market rate housing on the top), build very strong public transit systems and allowed construction of high density private housing away from the city centre, and implement rent control, you will do much, much more than stopping 1.5-3 years of rent increases and then not being able to do much. You will actually have a durable solution.
- AaronFriel 6y agoWhy not? It sounds like it would only require replacing ~10 parcels with higher density housing on average within a 500m circle. That seems highly achievable, especially in San Francisco where density is abysmal!