4 ms·

I hate when these types of stories only report the percentage change of the incidents involved. Going from 1 murder to 2 murders is the same percentage change a

I hate when these types of stories only report the percentage change of the incidents involved. Going from 1 murder to 2 murders is the same percentage change as 100 to 200, and in general they're dealing with so few events that it's hard to distinguish some meaningful change from expected variance. Also, it's not as easy to track but it'd be interesting to see if attempted murders saw the same spike. This increase could merely be a result of overtaxed hospitals saving fewer people.

mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
Unfortunately, every one of the cities here had significantly more than just one one or two murders. At a glance at the linked source data, it looks like Seattle came in with the lowest values on this list, at 47 murders for 2020 vs 27 in 2019. One thing of note is that some of the values appear to be for not quite the entirety of 2020. The first sentence of the story's second paragraph includes a link to a Twitter post [1] from the person who compiled the data, which contains a second link [2] to the Google Doc that he created. 1 - https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905 https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905 2 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5DHMjS14-Rs7XIXOt33Al_rDw/edit#gid=1757262194 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5D...
- mc32 6y ago
  I wonder, is it lack of deterrence (police presence and follow through) due to SARS-CoV2 or due to side-effects of SARS-CoV2 (perh psychological effects)?
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    The loss of millions of jobs is likely to have played a role here.
  - rtkwe 6y ago
    The explanation doesn't have to be so exotic. Millions of people in the US lost their jobs this year and the stress and financial difficulties from that increase the rate of all violent crime.
    - mc32 6y ago
      Right but murder is not something regular people decide they're going to do just because "things are difficult". It's usually something people who are apt to do that do (I know almost self referential). But what I mean is, it's possible that people given to violence either didn't see the same deterrence so they acted, or as you are saying people who would be unlikely suspects were pushed over the edge and did this as a side-effect of the virus.
      - swiley 6y ago
        I don't think it's a lack of deterrence. It's people who are between a rock and a hard place and lose it. Personally I don't know anyone who's died of the virus but I do know people who killed themselves last year because of the economic situation.
        mc32 6y ago
        Suicides are not counted in the murder category though.
      - rtkwe 6y ago
        An important note is that despite the large increase from last year we're still way below where we were in the 90s. Also police are one of the few things that didn't have a big drop in the number of people working it this year so I'm not sure where the smaller deterrent would be coming from. There's very few people who are walking around thinking about killing someone that then see a cop are decide not to. A lot of murders aren't even premeditated they're short spur of the moment violent outbursts. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
    - 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
babesh 6y ago
This take is just wrong statistically. First, there are far more than a few murders in large cities. Second, murders rising in ALL large cities by a large percentage is unlikely. Third, the total murders across the large cities rising by a LARGE percentage is unlikely. The equivalent to the second is tossing heads every time. The equivalent to the third is tossing far more heads than tails when you toss many times.
- boomboomsubban 6y ago
  > First, there are far more than a few murders in large cities. From the chart apparently linked in one of the sources, half the cities listed had under a hundred. Only two had one a day, Chicago and Philadelphia. That's "a few" in this kind of statistics. >Second, murders rising in ALL large cities by a large percentage is unlikely. When ~10 events can constitute a large percentage, it's not that unlikely. I won't say there wasn't something that was worse this year compared to most, I put forward my guess as to a primary cause in my first post. Using metrics like "percentage change" hide the actual events that happened, and makes the problem sound more terrifying than it actually is.
  - babesh 6y ago
    The definition of high percentage doesn’t matter much here just as it doesn’t matter much if a coin is a little head or a lot head. You can also measure the probability of murder doubling for each city using statistics if you are so inclined. The number of tosses matters. As the number of tosses increases, it is increasingly unlikely to toss all heads and increasingly unlikely to toss a great more heads than tails. This is probability and the central limit theorem.
    - boomboomsubban 6y ago
      I have no idea what you're trying to say, as trying to compare these statistics to a 50% chance just doesn't work. Is the number of tosses the number of people or the number of murders?
flukus 6y ago
Generally I'd agree, but it's pretty common knowledge that US homicide and gun homicide rates are already very high by world standards. So it's a spike on an already high rate.

mandelbrotwurst 6y ago

Unfortunately, every one of the cities here had significantly more than just one one or two murders. At a glance at the linked source data, it looks like Seattle came in with the lowest values on this list, at 47 murders for 2020 vs 27 in 2019. One thing of note is that some of the values appear to be for not quite the entirety of 2020. The first sentence of the story's second paragraph includes a link to a Twitter post [1] from the person who compiled the data, which contains a second link [2] to the Google Doc that he created. 1 - https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905 https://twitter.com/Crimealytics/status/1343950694672379905 2 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5DHMjS14-Rs7XIXOt33Al_rDw/edit#gid=1757262194 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9b5mIwztAwmEHJW7Q5D...

mc32 6y ago
I wonder, is it lack of deterrence (police presence and follow through) due to SARS-CoV2 or due to side-effects of SARS-CoV2 (perh psychological effects)?
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  The loss of millions of jobs is likely to have played a role here.
- rtkwe 6y ago
  The explanation doesn't have to be so exotic. Millions of people in the US lost their jobs this year and the stress and financial difficulties from that increase the rate of all violent crime.
  - mc32 6y ago
    Right but murder is not something regular people decide they're going to do just because "things are difficult". It's usually something people who are apt to do that do (I know almost self referential). But what I mean is, it's possible that people given to violence either didn't see the same deterrence so they acted, or as you are saying people who would be unlikely suspects were pushed over the edge and did this as a side-effect of the virus.
    - swiley 6y ago
      I don't think it's a lack of deterrence. It's people who are between a rock and a hard place and lose it. Personally I don't know anyone who's died of the virus but I do know people who killed themselves last year because of the economic situation.
      - mc32 6y ago
        Suicides are not counted in the murder category though.
    - rtkwe 6y ago
      An important note is that despite the large increase from last year we're still way below where we were in the 90s. Also police are one of the few things that didn't have a big drop in the number of people working it this year so I'm not sure where the smaller deterrent would be coming from. There's very few people who are walking around thinking about killing someone that then see a cop are decide not to. A lot of murders aren't even premeditated they're short spur of the moment violent outbursts. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/20/facts-about...
  - 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

babesh 6y ago

This take is just wrong statistically. First, there are far more than a few murders in large cities. Second, murders rising in ALL large cities by a large percentage is unlikely. Third, the total murders across the large cities rising by a LARGE percentage is unlikely. The equivalent to the second is tossing heads every time. The equivalent to the third is tossing far more heads than tails when you toss many times.

boomboomsubban 6y ago
> First, there are far more than a few murders in large cities. From the chart apparently linked in one of the sources, half the cities listed had under a hundred. Only two had one a day, Chicago and Philadelphia. That's "a few" in this kind of statistics. >Second, murders rising in ALL large cities by a large percentage is unlikely. When ~10 events can constitute a large percentage, it's not that unlikely. I won't say there wasn't something that was worse this year compared to most, I put forward my guess as to a primary cause in my first post. Using metrics like "percentage change" hide the actual events that happened, and makes the problem sound more terrifying than it actually is.
- babesh 6y ago
  The definition of high percentage doesn’t matter much here just as it doesn’t matter much if a coin is a little head or a lot head. You can also measure the probability of murder doubling for each city using statistics if you are so inclined. The number of tosses matters. As the number of tosses increases, it is increasingly unlikely to toss all heads and increasingly unlikely to toss a great more heads than tails. This is probability and the central limit theorem.
  - boomboomsubban 6y ago
    I have no idea what you're trying to say, as trying to compare these statistics to a 50% chance just doesn't work. Is the number of tosses the number of people or the number of murders?

flukus 6y ago

Generally I'd agree, but it's pretty common knowledge that US homicide and gun homicide rates are already very high by world standards. So it's a spike on an already high rate.