4 ms·
I don't find the argument that distances are too great for intelligence to meet particularly convincing. At its core lies unjustified extrapolation that the rat
by avz 6y ago
I don't find the argument that distances are too great for intelligence to meet particularly convincing. At its core lies unjustified extrapolation that the ratio of average lifespan to typical interstellar distance - a pure accident of Earthly biology - somehow extends to the whole universe.
The key quantity on which the argument hinges is
T * c / D
where T is the average lifespan of the intelligent being in question, c is the speed of light and D is a typical separation between stars in a region of interest.
In our stellar neighborhood there are about 0.004 stars per cubic light year [1], so if we choose to measure D as the reciprocal of the cubic root of stellar density then D is about 6.3 light years which is of the same order of magnitude as the distance to Proxima Centauri (~4.2 ly). This quantity varies somewhat, e.g. global clusters have about 0.4 stars per cubic parsec [2] which is more than 0.01 stars per cubic light year for D of 4.4 ly.
In case of humans, T is about 79 years. We don't know anything about any alien lifeforms, but even among lifeforms on Earth T varies significantly. For example, Bowhead whales can live more than 200 years [3]. Traveling 4 ly at 5% of the speed of light is a possibility for such creatures. Moreover, entities with artificial intelligence could live (function?) significantly longer. Possibly forever.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_density
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globular_cluster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globular_cluster
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowhead_whale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowhead_whale
- nobody9999 6y ago>The key quantity on which the argument hinges is T * c / D I'd think that it's also important to have a component that quantifies the lifetime of a technologically advanced civilization, as the universe isn't just separated by space, but also by vast expanses of time as well. I'm not belittling your example, just trying pointing out that when speculating in this area, it's useful to include a time component related to civilizations as well as an individual lifetime component.