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We are not really in a recession btw, and as Fred Wilson pointed out in the comments, there are indeed many companies that are building for the long-term. Those

We are not really in a recession btw, and as Fred Wilson pointed out in the comments, there are indeed many companies that are building for the long-term. Those companies just don't generate that much buzz because they are focused on making their customers happy instead of hyping their service.

smanek 18y ago
A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. According to the official figures, GDP has been just a little above flat (~0.5%) for well over a year now. But, everyone knows that inflation is really far greater than the official ~2.5%/year though. Depending on which methodology you accept, the actual number is closer to 10% and possibly as high as 15% (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/56 http://www.shadowstats.com/article/56 is a decent primer on some of the problems with the government stats). Using a more accurate GDP deflator shows that we've actually been in a recession for a few years now.
- jfornear 18y ago
  First quarter growth this year was 1-1.6%, and second quarter growth is expected to be around 2-2.5% according to the FT.
  - smanek 18y ago
    The BEA itself said under 1% growth in the first quarter, iirc. And The Economist (http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Forecast http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/profile.cfm?folder=Pr...) estimates less than 1% net growth for the year.
breck 18y ago
Exactly. Most winning companies are not out there hyping their companies. Keeping quiet discourage competitors and gives them more time to grow their profits and increase the barriers to entry. Btw in my assessment we are in a recession.
- iamelgringo 18y ago
  It's all about what makes for "good TV". An economic catastrophe, earthquakes and shootings make for good TV, so you hear a lot about those things. A kid that drops out of college, gets VC funding and flips his startup to GOOG for Bazillions also makes for "good TV". An entrepreneur that plugs away creating a small ISV or a team that creates a small SAS site is rather boring, so you're not going to hear about it. That is unless you have a DHH who is willing to throw rocks at the establishment and gather some press that way. DHH writing "F*ck You" in a 72 point font in a Power Point presentation--that's good TV. The guys over at Shoppify make a decent little SaS product, last I heard it was 4 guys working on RoR and were profitable from the first few months. When I watched a RoR presentation by them last year, they said they hosted 25,000 online stores. No one hears about them, however... why? It's just not good TV.
nickb 18y ago
I'd reserve my judgement on whether or not we're in recession until the next administration comes in and opens up books. I wouldn't trust ANY financial numbers that are coming out of this administration. All this reckless running of the printing presses has probably increased the inflation so much that all the GDP has been wiped out. Until you see M3 money supply, don't trust anything Bernanke says. Personally, I think we've been in a recession for half a year at least. Just look at spending patterns... they're all down.

smanek 18y ago

A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. According to the official figures, GDP has been just a little above flat (~0.5%) for well over a year now. But, everyone knows that inflation is really far greater than the official ~2.5%/year though. Depending on which methodology you accept, the actual number is closer to 10% and possibly as high as 15% (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/56 http://www.shadowstats.com/article/56 is a decent primer on some of the problems with the government stats). Using a more accurate GDP deflator shows that we've actually been in a recession for a few years now.

jfornear 18y ago
First quarter growth this year was 1-1.6%, and second quarter growth is expected to be around 2-2.5% according to the FT.
- smanek 18y ago
  The BEA itself said under 1% growth in the first quarter, iirc. And The Economist (http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Forecast http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/profile.cfm?folder=Pr...) estimates less than 1% net growth for the year.

breck 18y ago

Exactly. Most winning companies are not out there hyping their companies. Keeping quiet discourage competitors and gives them more time to grow their profits and increase the barriers to entry. Btw in my assessment we are in a recession.

iamelgringo 18y ago
It's all about what makes for "good TV". An economic catastrophe, earthquakes and shootings make for good TV, so you hear a lot about those things. A kid that drops out of college, gets VC funding and flips his startup to GOOG for Bazillions also makes for "good TV". An entrepreneur that plugs away creating a small ISV or a team that creates a small SAS site is rather boring, so you're not going to hear about it. That is unless you have a DHH who is willing to throw rocks at the establishment and gather some press that way. DHH writing "F*ck You" in a 72 point font in a Power Point presentation--that's good TV. The guys over at Shoppify make a decent little SaS product, last I heard it was 4 guys working on RoR and were profitable from the first few months. When I watched a RoR presentation by them last year, they said they hosted 25,000 online stores. No one hears about them, however... why? It's just not good TV.

nickb 18y ago

I'd reserve my judgement on whether or not we're in recession until the next administration comes in and opens up books. I wouldn't trust ANY financial numbers that are coming out of this administration. All this reckless running of the printing presses has probably increased the inflation so much that all the GDP has been wiped out. Until you see M3 money supply, don't trust anything Bernanke says. Personally, I think we've been in a recession for half a year at least. Just look at spending patterns... they're all down.