> “ But you can't rule out the possibility that a few people, who happen to be positioned exactly right at a particular point in time, correctly assess the risk

> “ But you can't rule out the possibility that a few people, who happen to be positioned exactly right at a particular point in time, correctly assess the risk of a certain bet as being much lower than the rest of the market thinks.” No, you very much can rule that out. It’s nothing more than “a broken clock is right twice a day.” Lots of people are making lottery like bets on specific stocks, with a just-so story about why they’ve correctly valued it. By random chance, some small subset actually pay off and people falsely mistake the just-so narrative for investor prowess or foresight.