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https://www.trendforce.com.tw/research/download/RP210112CQ https://www.trendforce.com.tw/research/download/RP210112CQ The report is all speculation, not some cr

https://www.trendforce.com.tw/research/download/RP210112CQ https://www.trendforce.com.tw/research/download/RP210112CQ The report is all speculation, not some credible source leak. And the original report was released on 01/12 before Intel appoints Pat Gelsinger as new CEO. So even if the report speculated correctly, which is unlikely, the circumstance already changed.

josalhor 6y ago
I made the same mistake just a few days ago. I believed the TrendForce article was reporting confirmed news. Your link redirects me to a Chinese webpage. I think this article may be more approachable: http://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210113-10651.html http://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210113-10651.ht...
- dmix 6y ago
  So the OP’s articles source is a blog post which cites its own ‘research’ and little else. I guess it comes down to how much we can trust Trendforce... otherwise it’s pretty much still speculation at this point.
ksec 6y ago
The is why you keep bumping into people who has all the wrong assumption about everything with Intel, Fab, TSMC topics. News Sources keep bumping out crap. And they never go back to correct their original reporting. And most people simply believe what they read. General Reminder, any News Source coming from Taiwan on TSMC has an interest of pumping up Stock Price.
skylanh 6y ago
Can or should the headline of this HN post be updated to include (rumour) or (speculation) or (unconfirmed)?
cbozeman 6y ago
The only problem with this, is that its fairly well-known by industry insiders that Apple has TSMC's entire 5nm production locked up for a significant portion of this year, maybe even the entire year. M1 is just the beginning. New Axx chips are going 5nm too. I would trust Charlie over at SemiAccurate before I trust TrendForce. I'm not saying this isn't true or accurate, I'm saying that Apple's manufacturing demands are enormous just for iPhone / iPad chips, and now M1 has invigorated demand for desktop / laptop Mac products, at least amongst nerdier types like us, but wherever we go, the mainstream inevitably follows. Once "normal" people start using MacBook Pros and realize they now have 2-4 day battery life (or even longer for light users), then its only a matter of time until demand rises. I think Apple has anticipated this to some degree. Not to mention, 2021 is supposed to be the Year of the Mx iMac / Mac Pro. Ultimately, this is just a terrible time to be Intel. They're at least 2-3 years away from any worthwhile new product on their own nodes. 10nm is still a shitshow and 7nm isn't faring much better.
- gogopuppygogo 6y ago
  Good time to buy Intel stock if you think it’s bottoming out.
  - conro1108 6y ago
    Not a good time if you don't think they'll ever recover.
    - cbozeman 6y ago
      They will recover, but we're not at the bottom yet. I think the stock will hit rock bottom in early-to-mid 2022. It'll start to climb around Q2 2023 when new products on working Intel nodes are announced. Once those products are reviewed and performance is at parity or better than AMD / Apple products, it'll rebound. And they will have to recover, one way or another. Intel is now a strategic asset. TSMC is too close to mainland China to risk losing access to, the Arizona fab won't be online for at least 3-5 years, and its capacity is tiny compared to the main fab in Taiwan. Samsung can't afford to share capacity because whatever portion of their fabs aren't used for Samsung products, the rest is locked up by NVIDIA, which literally every researcher needs because GPU-based compute is now dominant. Intel has to succeed, and if they can't do that on their own, the United States government has to step in, in some way. They did it for a bunch of shitty bankers in 2008, they can definitely do it for an industry that produces an actual, tangible product.
      - nec4b 6y ago
        If it has come so far that the government has to steps in than they are probably done. Once government starts to bankroll them, they'll have no incentive to be competitive and all the smart creative people will leave for better pastures.
        r00fus 6y ago
        So a bet on INTC would be for government bailout? I'd say it has a long time to fall still then.
ucm_edge 6y ago
The more credible speculation I've seen (although arguably once you're arguing with speculation is more credible, you've already lost) is that Intel is doing a multiyear deal to have TSMC crank out its discrete Xe graphics/compute cards. Which frankly makes a lot more sense, they need a leading process to compete with NVidia who currently has access to Samsung's 7nm and AMD who has TSMC's 7nm and will probably move on to TSMC 5nm sometime next year as Apple moves on to TSMC 3nm. So supposedly Intel is guaranteeing enough Xe business to get TSMC to convert part of its Baoshan complex over to making Xe. Intel will keep trying to fix its own fabs for its CPUs and probably intends to bring Xe cards back in house at a later date, but they also want to go challenge AMD and nVidia for datacenter GPUs now and that means getting access to a better process. Outsourcing the commodity i3 whose main goal in life is run MS Office on a Dell Optiplex is definitely a strange rumor. Out of all the things Intel has, that's the area that has the least need of a process upgrade.
- wmf 6y ago
  Xe on TSMC was officially announced by Intel; it's not a rumor.
- MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
  > get TSMC to convert part of its Baoshan complex over to making Xe What does that even mean? Won't it be just a different litho mask?
  - ucm_edge 6y ago
    Baoshan was supposed to be a pure R&D facility. So they're literally building a production fab for Intel Xe there.

josalhor 6y ago

I made the same mistake just a few days ago. I believed the TrendForce article was reporting confirmed news. Your link redirects me to a Chinese webpage. I think this article may be more approachable: http://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210113-10651.html http://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210113-10651.ht...

dmix 6y ago
So the OP’s articles source is a blog post which cites its own ‘research’ and little else. I guess it comes down to how much we can trust Trendforce... otherwise it’s pretty much still speculation at this point.

ksec 6y ago

The is why you keep bumping into people who has all the wrong assumption about everything with Intel, Fab, TSMC topics. News Sources keep bumping out crap. And they never go back to correct their original reporting. And most people simply believe what they read. General Reminder, any News Source coming from Taiwan on TSMC has an interest of pumping up Stock Price.

skylanh 6y ago

Can or should the headline of this HN post be updated to include (rumour) or (speculation) or (unconfirmed)?

cbozeman 6y ago

The only problem with this, is that its fairly well-known by industry insiders that Apple has TSMC's entire 5nm production locked up for a significant portion of this year, maybe even the entire year. M1 is just the beginning. New Axx chips are going 5nm too. I would trust Charlie over at SemiAccurate before I trust TrendForce. I'm not saying this isn't true or accurate, I'm saying that Apple's manufacturing demands are enormous just for iPhone / iPad chips, and now M1 has invigorated demand for desktop / laptop Mac products, at least amongst nerdier types like us, but wherever we go, the mainstream inevitably follows. Once "normal" people start using MacBook Pros and realize they now have 2-4 day battery life (or even longer for light users), then its only a matter of time until demand rises. I think Apple has anticipated this to some degree. Not to mention, 2021 is supposed to be the Year of the Mx iMac / Mac Pro. Ultimately, this is just a terrible time to be Intel. They're at least 2-3 years away from any worthwhile new product on their own nodes. 10nm is still a shitshow and 7nm isn't faring much better.

gogopuppygogo 6y ago
Good time to buy Intel stock if you think it’s bottoming out.
- conro1108 6y ago
  Not a good time if you don't think they'll ever recover.
  - cbozeman 6y ago
    They will recover, but we're not at the bottom yet. I think the stock will hit rock bottom in early-to-mid 2022. It'll start to climb around Q2 2023 when new products on working Intel nodes are announced. Once those products are reviewed and performance is at parity or better than AMD / Apple products, it'll rebound. And they will have to recover, one way or another. Intel is now a strategic asset. TSMC is too close to mainland China to risk losing access to, the Arizona fab won't be online for at least 3-5 years, and its capacity is tiny compared to the main fab in Taiwan. Samsung can't afford to share capacity because whatever portion of their fabs aren't used for Samsung products, the rest is locked up by NVIDIA, which literally every researcher needs because GPU-based compute is now dominant. Intel has to succeed, and if they can't do that on their own, the United States government has to step in, in some way. They did it for a bunch of shitty bankers in 2008, they can definitely do it for an industry that produces an actual, tangible product.
    - nec4b 6y ago
      If it has come so far that the government has to steps in than they are probably done. Once government starts to bankroll them, they'll have no incentive to be competitive and all the smart creative people will leave for better pastures.
      - r00fus 6y ago
        So a bet on INTC would be for government bailout? I'd say it has a long time to fall still then.

ucm_edge 6y ago

The more credible speculation I've seen (although arguably once you're arguing with speculation is more credible, you've already lost) is that Intel is doing a multiyear deal to have TSMC crank out its discrete Xe graphics/compute cards. Which frankly makes a lot more sense, they need a leading process to compete with NVidia who currently has access to Samsung's 7nm and AMD who has TSMC's 7nm and will probably move on to TSMC 5nm sometime next year as Apple moves on to TSMC 3nm. So supposedly Intel is guaranteeing enough Xe business to get TSMC to convert part of its Baoshan complex over to making Xe. Intel will keep trying to fix its own fabs for its CPUs and probably intends to bring Xe cards back in house at a later date, but they also want to go challenge AMD and nVidia for datacenter GPUs now and that means getting access to a better process. Outsourcing the commodity i3 whose main goal in life is run MS Office on a Dell Optiplex is definitely a strange rumor. Out of all the things Intel has, that's the area that has the least need of a process upgrade.

wmf 6y ago
Xe on TSMC was officially announced by Intel; it's not a rumor.
MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
> get TSMC to convert part of its Baoshan complex over to making Xe What does that even mean? Won't it be just a different litho mask?
- ucm_edge 6y ago
  Baoshan was supposed to be a pure R&D facility. So they're literally building a production fab for Intel Xe there.