3 ms·

I just posted it in another comment. Co-authored by Donald Henderson who was credited with ridding the world of smallpox talking about the effectiveness of loc

I just posted it in another comment. Co-authored by Donald Henderson who was credited with ridding the world of smallpox talking about the effectiveness of lock downs -> http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552...

Naracion 6y ago
Edit. I see that you were probably responding to "Are those opinions shared by the scientific community?", in which case yes you make a valid point. However it still holds that this paper was from 2006, we're in a much better position today in many places to accomplish work remotely. Many assumptions are in fact not met. I'll keep my original comment as is below: It is immaterial that D. A. co-authored that back in 2006. It was a different time, and the measures that he is professing against have _demonstrably_ proven to be effective. The paper gives suggestions based on many assumptions that don't hold considering the implemented rules. But they're just suggestions. Offering this paper in the face of demonstrable evidence that these measures do in fact work seems a little irrational in my perspective.
- ryathal 6y ago
  Why is simply being effective the bar for lockdowns? Lots of things are effective that aren't used because we understand that there are tradeoffs and other policies can bring similar effectiveness with less side effects. as the saying goes: "Any idiot can build a bridge. It takes an engineer to build a bridge that is just strong enough to stand given the weight it's meant to bear."
sumedh 6y ago
> Screening passengers at borders or closing air or rail hubs. Experience has shown that these actions are not effective and could have serious adverse consequences; thus, they are not recommended. So his solution is to not screen people and let everyone in? > Quarantine. As experience shows, there is no basis for recommending quarantine either of groups or individuals So his recommendation is to let people with virus loose in the community. You really believe that? Maybe you need to listen to people who have experience with the flu and other corona viruses instead someone with small pox experience.
- drcross 6y ago
  Lockdowns didn't exist in the literature prior to march 2020. This is all experimental clap trap being sold as science.
  - sumedh 6y ago
    No that is wrong. Just read about the Spanish Flu. Two days later, the city shut down most public gatherings and quarantined victims in their homes. The cases slowed. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-citie...

Naracion 6y ago

Edit. I see that you were probably responding to "Are those opinions shared by the scientific community?", in which case yes you make a valid point. However it still holds that this paper was from 2006, we're in a much better position today in many places to accomplish work remotely. Many assumptions are in fact not met. I'll keep my original comment as is below: It is immaterial that D. A. co-authored that back in 2006. It was a different time, and the measures that he is professing against have _demonstrably_ proven to be effective. The paper gives suggestions based on many assumptions that don't hold considering the implemented rules. But they're just suggestions. Offering this paper in the face of demonstrable evidence that these measures do in fact work seems a little irrational in my perspective.

ryathal 6y ago
Why is simply being effective the bar for lockdowns? Lots of things are effective that aren't used because we understand that there are tradeoffs and other policies can bring similar effectiveness with less side effects. as the saying goes: "Any idiot can build a bridge. It takes an engineer to build a bridge that is just strong enough to stand given the weight it's meant to bear."

sumedh 6y ago

> Screening passengers at borders or closing air or rail hubs. Experience has shown that these actions are not effective and could have serious adverse consequences; thus, they are not recommended. So his solution is to not screen people and let everyone in? > Quarantine. As experience shows, there is no basis for recommending quarantine either of groups or individuals So his recommendation is to let people with virus loose in the community. You really believe that? Maybe you need to listen to people who have experience with the flu and other corona viruses instead someone with small pox experience.

drcross 6y ago
Lockdowns didn't exist in the literature prior to march 2020. This is all experimental clap trap being sold as science.
- sumedh 6y ago
  No that is wrong. Just read about the Spanish Flu. Two days later, the city shut down most public gatherings and quarantined victims in their homes. The cases slowed. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-citie...