Your conclusion that receiving funding => being popular => winning is not necessarily incorrect. But it is also possible that it is the other way around:

Your conclusion that receiving funding => being popular => winning is not necessarily incorrect. But it is also possible that it is the other way around: being popular => receiving funding => winning I.e. candidates which are more popular tend to have an easier time receiving funding. Or, it could be some combination. This would also explain the outcomes you point to.