3 ms·

To me this sounds like you made an excellent argument for more decentralization, not less. - Germany vs France in regards to Corona: similar sized countries, y

To me this sounds like you made an excellent argument for more decentralization, not less. - Germany vs France in regards to Corona: similar sized countries, yet I venture that Germany has been doing far better than France in dealing with the pandemic. Maybe it is because the local governors have a better idea of what are the real challenges of their regions than some bureaucrat sitting in Berlin? - Bavaria takes too much money from the federal government: maybe that would be an argument to have less federal taxes and more to the state-level. Remove power from the central entity, and there will be less of an incentive/risk of abuse? - EU: you say probably to something that every Euro-skeptic has been saying for decades already. People outside of the Germany/France/Italy circle are getting more and more tired of losing autonomy over their lives, business and even who they get to have as neighbors to someone in Brussels, who has more to gain by listening to lobbyists than their voters. > there is at least the chance that the central governance actually represents all of the population. No. Not at the scales that we talking about and not at this globalized world that we have. In today's world, all that central governance does is foment polarization in order to run divide-and-conquer of the people. Maybe (if you are lucky) you get some alternance of power so that no single group gets to be in control and some equilibrium gets to be established.

zwaps 6y ago
Yeah like I suggested, it seems to be a convex benefit curve. Removing the central element entirely seems to be the implication, but where does it stop? At each level, you lose the benefits of a central structure - such as coordination, support, management of risk etc. Sure, one can get rid of the EU. But you'll notice that most countries actually don't want this - especially Euro-critical countries in eastern Europe profit hugely from the EU and would never seriously consider going back to the previous state of things. No, I think the EU is far too decentralized in areas that matter. It has power, to some degree, but it doesn't have real representation. For example, if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union. For covid, Germany was doing well initially due to having a far better medical system. However, in relative terms, it did poorly. Yes, the pre-established institutions worked well, such as having the most advanced hospital system and the most ICU units by a mile, however everything that followed was a disaster characterized primarily by doing too little. Germany never managed to beat the second wave. France did.
- rglullis 6y ago
  > Euro-critical countries in eastern Europe profit hugely from the EU and would never seriously consider going back to the previous state of things. The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU. Sounds familiar? If you know anything about Greece besides Santorini and Mykonos, it should strike a note. > if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union. Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragility-c9867eb71998 https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me.
  - zwaps 6y ago
    > The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU. Are you saying these countries would be better off outside of the EU? Like, say, Turkey? Not sure I get your point. > Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me. Not sure if I am going to read a whole article about Lebanon from Taleb, but I take you'd prefer a Grexit early on instead of the drudgery that is occurring now? You know, at the time this was often discussed. The honest truth is that no one really knows, but everyone is convinced they are right. It's really where two understandings of reality met. On the one hand, you had people who believe (like you I'd take it) that economic systems can use reform and a collapsing exchange rate / exports to improve their lot with separation from the Euro. On the other hand, you had people saying that this would, at best, eliminate decades of economic growth, and at worst, lead to explicable suffering and a mass exodus. All the while cementing the country in a low-income periphery position by virtue of being dominated by the EU central bank actions. People who actually remember the pre Euro times will remember this situation from countries dependent on the Deutsche Mark, and will also remember that the Euro was - for that reason - France's condition to allow German reunification. I guess I never resolved in which camp I fall. On the one hand, no non-EU peripheral country really fills me with confidence that this is a good position. On the other hand, perhaps Brexit will eventually show that such a niche can be found.

zwaps 6y ago

Yeah like I suggested, it seems to be a convex benefit curve. Removing the central element entirely seems to be the implication, but where does it stop? At each level, you lose the benefits of a central structure - such as coordination, support, management of risk etc. Sure, one can get rid of the EU. But you'll notice that most countries actually don't want this - especially Euro-critical countries in eastern Europe profit hugely from the EU and would never seriously consider going back to the previous state of things. No, I think the EU is far too decentralized in areas that matter. It has power, to some degree, but it doesn't have real representation. For example, if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union. For covid, Germany was doing well initially due to having a far better medical system. However, in relative terms, it did poorly. Yes, the pre-established institutions worked well, such as having the most advanced hospital system and the most ICU units by a mile, however everything that followed was a disaster characterized primarily by doing too little. Germany never managed to beat the second wave. France did.

rglullis 6y ago
> Euro-critical countries in eastern Europe profit hugely from the EU and would never seriously consider going back to the previous state of things. The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU. Sounds familiar? If you know anything about Greece besides Santorini and Mykonos, it should strike a note. > if the EU had a centralized fiscal&monetary policy, things would have looked much less bleak for southern parts of the Union. Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragility-c9867eb71998 https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me.
- zwaps 6y ago
  > The elites of those countries benefit way more from the influx of euros, some breadcrumbs are given to the people and then everyone stays under the illusion they are better off. The central bank keeps pushing money, Brussels and Berlin get happy about it until some external crisis show that the periphery countries never actually changed their ways and now are even more fragile to external shocks and even more dependent on the EU. Are you saying these countries would be better off outside of the EU? Like, say, Turkey? Not sure I get your point. > Sorry for the stereotyping, but this is such a German comment and so short-sighted that if I get into a long response to it my blood will boil a little. Instead, let me refer you to https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili https://nntaleb.medium.com/lebanon-from-ponzi-to-antifragili... who maybe can get the point across better than me. Not sure if I am going to read a whole article about Lebanon from Taleb, but I take you'd prefer a Grexit early on instead of the drudgery that is occurring now? You know, at the time this was often discussed. The honest truth is that no one really knows, but everyone is convinced they are right. It's really where two understandings of reality met. On the one hand, you had people who believe (like you I'd take it) that economic systems can use reform and a collapsing exchange rate / exports to improve their lot with separation from the Euro. On the other hand, you had people saying that this would, at best, eliminate decades of economic growth, and at worst, lead to explicable suffering and a mass exodus. All the while cementing the country in a low-income periphery position by virtue of being dominated by the EU central bank actions. People who actually remember the pre Euro times will remember this situation from countries dependent on the Deutsche Mark, and will also remember that the Euro was - for that reason - France's condition to allow German reunification. I guess I never resolved in which camp I fall. On the one hand, no non-EU peripheral country really fills me with confidence that this is a good position. On the other hand, perhaps Brexit will eventually show that such a niche can be found.