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Perhaps now the "Why do people obsess over manufacturing?" question that many tech workers ask when other US industries were decimated will become a bit less qu

Perhaps now the "Why do people obsess over manufacturing?" question that many tech workers ask when other US industries were decimated will become a bit less quizzical.

coldtea 6y ago
It only becomes less quizzical when it hits home -- that is when one's own job is on the line.
yourapostasy 6y ago
It was more economics and political policy wonks, economists and politicians in general, who didn't just ask that question, but thrust forth the prescriptive rhetoric through a large grid of trade agreements, "Globalism is here to stay! Get over it! Comparative Advantage!" This is only the first in a long, expensive series of lessons these people will be taught by reality in the coming decades. I'm guessing this kind of manufacturing loss will cost at least $1T to catch up and take the lead again after all is said and done, assuming the US can even take the lead. US organization, economic, and financial management at the macro scale is going through a kind of "architecture astronaut" multi-decade phase with financialization propping up abstracted processes of how to lead massive organizations as big blocks on diagrams instead of highly fractal, constantly shifting networks of ideas and stories repeatedly coalescing around people, processes, and resources into focused discrete action in continguous and continuous OODA feedback loops absorbing and learning mistakes along the way. Ideally, the expensive BA and INTC lessons drive home the urgent need for an evolution in organizational management. I wryly think how similar the national comparative advantage argument looks to much young adult science fiction portrayal of space opera galactic empire settings with entire worlds dedicated solely to one purpose. This world only produces agricultural goods. That world only provides academician services. It is a very human desire to simplify complex fractal realities, and effective modeling is one of our species' advantages, but at certain scales of size, agility and complexity it breaks down. We know this well in the software world; some problems are intrinsically hard and complex, and there is a baseline level of complexity the software must model to successfully assist with the problem space. Simplifying further past that point deteriorates the delivery.
- DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
  > financialization propping up abstracted processes of how to lead massive organizations as big blocks on diagrams instead of highly fractal, constantly shifting networks of ideas and stories repeatedly coalescing around people, processes, and resources into focused discrete action in continguous and continuous OODA feedback loops absorbing and learning mistakes along the way. I had trouble reading this without falling into the cadence of Howl! by Allen Ginsberg.
  - yourapostasy 6y ago
    Thanks for introducing me to that, it was enjoyable to listen to Allen. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGoY9gom50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGoY9gom50
    - DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
      My pleasure :) But to my chagrin, I just realized that the reading cadence I had in mind wasn't Allen Ginsberg's, but instead Jack Kerouac's. [0] [0] https://youtu.be/3LLpNKo09Xk?t=197 https://youtu.be/3LLpNKo09Xk?t=197
      - yourapostasy 6y ago
        Ha, that Beat Generation background music really sets the tone.
        DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
        Are you referring to the music that's (mostly?) Steve Allen's piano playing? Yeah, totally. I also never knew that Steve Allen was so good at piano. Before watching that video, all I knew about him was that he'd had a popular TV show.
- mountainb 6y ago
  The US decided that it didn't like all the political disorder that came with managing a large proletariat. Instead, it decided to outsource the management of that proletariat to Asia and the 'global south.' Our proletariat instead was mostly liquidated and shifted itself into the service industry (not that amenable to labor organization) and the welfare/workfare rolls. There are so many things that the US would have to reform to become more competitive again, but we are so invested into the FIRE economy that it's not unlike the position of the southern states before the Civil War: they were completely invested into the infrastructure of slavery and could not contemplate an alternative economic system because of that. The US is wedded to an economy based on FIRE and Intellectual Property production, with the rest of the economy just in a support role. I'm not really a pro-organized-labor person, but I think that as a matter of national security we have to figure out a way to reform and compromise to get to the point to which we develop industry even if it is redundant due to globalization. The left needs to compromise on environmental protection, the rich need to compromise on NIMBYism, and the right needs to compromise on labor relations. Unfortunately none of this is on the table even as a point of discussion. Our politics is almost entirely consumed by insane gibberish babbling. This became very clear when COVID hit and there was no realistic prospect of spinning up significant industrial capacity to make in-demand goods like masks and filters. In the future, hostile countries will challenge and overtake the US in IP production (which is quite nebulous and based on legal control of markets anyway) and in finance as well. The US will be in a very weak negotiating position at that point.

Perhaps now the "Why do people obsess over manufacturing?" question that many tech workers ask when other US industries were decimated will become a bit less quizzical.

coldtea 6y ago

It only becomes less quizzical when it hits home -- that is when one's own job is on the line.

yourapostasy 6y ago

It was more economics and political policy wonks, economists and politicians in general, who didn't just ask that question, but thrust forth the prescriptive rhetoric through a large grid of trade agreements, "Globalism is here to stay! Get over it! Comparative Advantage!" This is only the first in a long, expensive series of lessons these people will be taught by reality in the coming decades. I'm guessing this kind of manufacturing loss will cost at least $1T to catch up and take the lead again after all is said and done, assuming the US can even take the lead. US organization, economic, and financial management at the macro scale is going through a kind of "architecture astronaut" multi-decade phase with financialization propping up abstracted processes of how to lead massive organizations as big blocks on diagrams instead of highly fractal, constantly shifting networks of ideas and stories repeatedly coalescing around people, processes, and resources into focused discrete action in continguous and continuous OODA feedback loops absorbing and learning mistakes along the way. Ideally, the expensive BA and INTC lessons drive home the urgent need for an evolution in organizational management. I wryly think how similar the national comparative advantage argument looks to much young adult science fiction portrayal of space opera galactic empire settings with entire worlds dedicated solely to one purpose. This world only produces agricultural goods. That world only provides academician services. It is a very human desire to simplify complex fractal realities, and effective modeling is one of our species' advantages, but at certain scales of size, agility and complexity it breaks down. We know this well in the software world; some problems are intrinsically hard and complex, and there is a baseline level of complexity the software must model to successfully assist with the problem space. Simplifying further past that point deteriorates the delivery.

DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
> financialization propping up abstracted processes of how to lead massive organizations as big blocks on diagrams instead of highly fractal, constantly shifting networks of ideas and stories repeatedly coalescing around people, processes, and resources into focused discrete action in continguous and continuous OODA feedback loops absorbing and learning mistakes along the way. I had trouble reading this without falling into the cadence of Howl! by Allen Ginsberg.
- yourapostasy 6y ago
  Thanks for introducing me to that, it was enjoyable to listen to Allen. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGoY9gom50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVGoY9gom50
  - DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
    My pleasure :) But to my chagrin, I just realized that the reading cadence I had in mind wasn't Allen Ginsberg's, but instead Jack Kerouac's. [0] [0] https://youtu.be/3LLpNKo09Xk?t=197 https://youtu.be/3LLpNKo09Xk?t=197
    - yourapostasy 6y ago
      Ha, that Beat Generation background music really sets the tone.
      - DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
        Are you referring to the music that's (mostly?) Steve Allen's piano playing? Yeah, totally. I also never knew that Steve Allen was so good at piano. Before watching that video, all I knew about him was that he'd had a popular TV show.
mountainb 6y ago
The US decided that it didn't like all the political disorder that came with managing a large proletariat. Instead, it decided to outsource the management of that proletariat to Asia and the 'global south.' Our proletariat instead was mostly liquidated and shifted itself into the service industry (not that amenable to labor organization) and the welfare/workfare rolls. There are so many things that the US would have to reform to become more competitive again, but we are so invested into the FIRE economy that it's not unlike the position of the southern states before the Civil War: they were completely invested into the infrastructure of slavery and could not contemplate an alternative economic system because of that. The US is wedded to an economy based on FIRE and Intellectual Property production, with the rest of the economy just in a support role. I'm not really a pro-organized-labor person, but I think that as a matter of national security we have to figure out a way to reform and compromise to get to the point to which we develop industry even if it is redundant due to globalization. The left needs to compromise on environmental protection, the rich need to compromise on NIMBYism, and the right needs to compromise on labor relations. Unfortunately none of this is on the table even as a point of discussion. Our politics is almost entirely consumed by insane gibberish babbling. This became very clear when COVID hit and there was no realistic prospect of spinning up significant industrial capacity to make in-demand goods like masks and filters. In the future, hostile countries will challenge and overtake the US in IP production (which is quite nebulous and based on legal control of markets anyway) and in finance as well. The US will be in a very weak negotiating position at that point.