3 ms·
From the Science article you refer to: "When the percentage of infected people exceeds the herd immunity threshold of 60 to 67%, or 100 × [1 – (1/R0)], each inf
by rossdavidh 6y ago
From the Science article you refer to: "When the percentage of infected people exceeds the herd immunity threshold of 60 to 67%, or 100 × [1 – (1/R0)], each infection generates fewer than one secondary case (case reproduction number Rt < 1) and incidence declines."
- boibombeiro 6y agoThey used a similar reasoning as OP. The huge increase on hospitalization in this month suggests heard imunity might not be possible. Either due reinfection, either because a more agressive variant is infecting people not yet imune. Reports from region says the number of people with 40-50 years hospitalized substianlly increased when compared with first wave. This new wave of infections seems to be caused by a new variant called P1, it include both B117 (UK) and E484K (SA) mutations. This hypotesys is still under investigation, given the lack of genomic sequentialing during the first wave. Yesterday a paper on this new variant was published (and given a new name). People should be aware that is unlikely heard imunity will be achieved without vaccination. RNA virus are known to have a high mutations rate, and despite covid having a low mutation rate (given its large rna size), it still mutates a lot. And natural selection will favors the variation that spreads more.