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With all the negative pushback this is getting, it’s making me think he was onto something. The exact same criticisms would apply to Airbnb, for example. “They

With all the negative pushback this is getting, it’s making me think he was onto something. The exact same criticisms would apply to Airbnb, for example. “They have not the slightest idea how the hotel industry works. This is a very professional industry with a lot of legal hurdles...”

f6v 6y ago
Well, Airbnb and Uber aren’t the best examples, are they? Their growth and “success” is fueled by either operating in a legal gray zone, or defying the local regulations all together. Many people all over the world think their lives were made much worse since Airbnb is negatively affecting the long-term rental market. Point is, the effect of the company on the society can’t just be measured by market cap. Back to the original article, the author was using statistical analysis to provide medical advice. Now, it’s incredibly easy to arrive to false conclusions with statistics. That’s why there’s regulations, peer reviews etc. What if the “Egyptian contractors” screwed the data up. Was the founder qualified to spot an issue?
- sillysaurusx 6y ago
  I think they’re ideal examples. Market cap is pretty much everything. It affects the world more than morals do. HN has drifted further and further from reality, which has been very strange to watch. The classic example was someone dismissing Dropbox when they first launched, but now it’s turned into dismissing billion dollar companies after they’ve clearly won.
  - coldtea 6y ago
    Only the parent doesn't dismiss "billion dollar companies", they dismiss comparing them to shut down, non winning, companies like in TFA.
    - sillysaurusx 6y ago
      Ah yes, one failure = the idea is horrible. Another classic trope.
      - coldtea 6y ago
        Well, the idea was rejected by patients, advertising revenue, and doctors... I also note the "weasel word" idea. This wasn't just an idea, but an implementation. The same thing might make sense as a value-added feature in a more comprehensive health service (so the "idea" might be good when put in that use). But as an idea for a service based entirely on it, it failed hard. What exactly twist do you have in mind to save it? Or are you just saying "we'll never be sure" with more words?
        sillysaurusx 6y ago
        If you study a lot of history, you start to notice that old ideas are bad until they’re suddenly very good. Cannons sucked for a long time, till Napoleon showed they weren’t so bad. I think posting haughty words is a lot easier than trying to make something work.
        coldtea 6y ago
        >If you study a lot of history, you start to notice that old ideas are bad until they’re suddenly very good. Also the opposite: dumb ideas are tried again and again to no avail ever.
        a1o 6y ago
        Adding as example of dumb ideas, people constantly trying to patent perpetual motion machines.
        0x1A567BBF 6y ago
        "With all the negative pushback this [idea] is getting, it’s making me think he [they] was onto something. "
  - jacobion 6y ago
    Wasn't the someone who dismissed Dropbox when they first launched Steve Jobs?
  - RobertKerans 6y ago
    How is that a "classic example" of drifting away from reality? "I don't think this startup business that doesn't seem likely to succeed will succeed" is a comment that looks funny in hindsight, that's all
- jacobion 6y ago
  Arguably one reason those two businesses were successful in areas with entrenched players and business practices was because they handle the money. If AirBnB was asking either travelers or hosts to pay $X to be on a recommendation site, probably very few people would. There's always a cheaper competitor when you're selling information. Because you book through AirBnB, for a service which is relatively expensive, they can skim off quite a lot of money in an opaque way.
- aaron695 6y ago
  > Their growth and “success” is fueled by either operating in a legal gray zone, or defying the local regulations all together. We just got an impossible vaccine in under a year, I'm happy for all of medicine to spend a bit of time in a "legal gray zone" to see what might happen. > Many people all over the world think their lives were made much worse since Airbnb is negatively affecting the long-term rental market. Absolutely, just like the Luddites (Although they would be well off Luddites) their world is worse. But humanity has been made far better.
wartijn_ 6y ago
Aren't you falling for the survivorship bias trap? Sure, people have said that about Airbnb. But I think there are loads of that startups that failed because they didn't understand the industry they were in, or because of legal hurdles.
- spzb 6y ago
  I think there's probably a lot more to be learned about business success by studying business failures. There's certainly a load more source material.
MrDresden 6y ago
Saying that there was a nuanced difference in what these two companies tried to accomplish would be a gross understatement.
hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
Just because people think an idea is bad is doesn't mean it's a billion dollar startup idea. Indeed, most ideas people think are bad are actually bad - it's only the few outliers that are actually successful. Even then I think there is a ton of mythologizing around this idea that the founders were able to see something nobody else did, usually to make the founders look like some sort of diamond-in-the-rough geniuses, when in reality what they built was just a natural evolution of tech that existed at the time (successful founders usually just execute better and faster than others). I mean, despite all stuff I've heard on HN about how a lot of big VCs passed on AirBnB, when I first heard of it it seemed like a very natural evolution from sites like Couch Surfing and VRBO that had existed for years.
hef19898 6y ago
At least the last part seems to be right, doesn't it? As a user I love Airbnb, way cheaper and better than hotels, epsecially with a family.

f6v 6y ago

Well, Airbnb and Uber aren’t the best examples, are they? Their growth and “success” is fueled by either operating in a legal gray zone, or defying the local regulations all together. Many people all over the world think their lives were made much worse since Airbnb is negatively affecting the long-term rental market. Point is, the effect of the company on the society can’t just be measured by market cap. Back to the original article, the author was using statistical analysis to provide medical advice. Now, it’s incredibly easy to arrive to false conclusions with statistics. That’s why there’s regulations, peer reviews etc. What if the “Egyptian contractors” screwed the data up. Was the founder qualified to spot an issue?

sillysaurusx 6y ago
I think they’re ideal examples. Market cap is pretty much everything. It affects the world more than morals do. HN has drifted further and further from reality, which has been very strange to watch. The classic example was someone dismissing Dropbox when they first launched, but now it’s turned into dismissing billion dollar companies after they’ve clearly won.
- coldtea 6y ago
  Only the parent doesn't dismiss "billion dollar companies", they dismiss comparing them to shut down, non winning, companies like in TFA.
  - sillysaurusx 6y ago
    Ah yes, one failure = the idea is horrible. Another classic trope.
    - coldtea 6y ago
      Well, the idea was rejected by patients, advertising revenue, and doctors... I also note the "weasel word" idea. This wasn't just an idea, but an implementation. The same thing might make sense as a value-added feature in a more comprehensive health service (so the "idea" might be good when put in that use). But as an idea for a service based entirely on it, it failed hard. What exactly twist do you have in mind to save it? Or are you just saying "we'll never be sure" with more words?
      - sillysaurusx 6y ago
        If you study a lot of history, you start to notice that old ideas are bad until they’re suddenly very good. Cannons sucked for a long time, till Napoleon showed they weren’t so bad. I think posting haughty words is a lot easier than trying to make something work.
        coldtea 6y ago
        >If you study a lot of history, you start to notice that old ideas are bad until they’re suddenly very good. Also the opposite: dumb ideas are tried again and again to no avail ever.
        a1o 6y ago
        Adding as example of dumb ideas, people constantly trying to patent perpetual motion machines.
        0x1A567BBF 6y ago
        "With all the negative pushback this [idea] is getting, it’s making me think he [they] was onto something. "
- jacobion 6y ago
  Wasn't the someone who dismissed Dropbox when they first launched Steve Jobs?
- RobertKerans 6y ago
  How is that a "classic example" of drifting away from reality? "I don't think this startup business that doesn't seem likely to succeed will succeed" is a comment that looks funny in hindsight, that's all
jacobion 6y ago
Arguably one reason those two businesses were successful in areas with entrenched players and business practices was because they handle the money. If AirBnB was asking either travelers or hosts to pay $X to be on a recommendation site, probably very few people would. There's always a cheaper competitor when you're selling information. Because you book through AirBnB, for a service which is relatively expensive, they can skim off quite a lot of money in an opaque way.
aaron695 6y ago
> Their growth and “success” is fueled by either operating in a legal gray zone, or defying the local regulations all together. We just got an impossible vaccine in under a year, I'm happy for all of medicine to spend a bit of time in a "legal gray zone" to see what might happen. > Many people all over the world think their lives were made much worse since Airbnb is negatively affecting the long-term rental market. Absolutely, just like the Luddites (Although they would be well off Luddites) their world is worse. But humanity has been made far better.

wartijn_ 6y ago

Aren't you falling for the survivorship bias trap? Sure, people have said that about Airbnb. But I think there are loads of that startups that failed because they didn't understand the industry they were in, or because of legal hurdles.

spzb 6y ago
I think there's probably a lot more to be learned about business success by studying business failures. There's certainly a load more source material.

MrDresden 6y ago

Saying that there was a nuanced difference in what these two companies tried to accomplish would be a gross understatement.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

Just because people think an idea is bad is doesn't mean it's a billion dollar startup idea. Indeed, most ideas people think are bad are actually bad - it's only the few outliers that are actually successful. Even then I think there is a ton of mythologizing around this idea that the founders were able to see something nobody else did, usually to make the founders look like some sort of diamond-in-the-rough geniuses, when in reality what they built was just a natural evolution of tech that existed at the time (successful founders usually just execute better and faster than others). I mean, despite all stuff I've heard on HN about how a lot of big VCs passed on AirBnB, when I first heard of it it seemed like a very natural evolution from sites like Couch Surfing and VRBO that had existed for years.

hef19898 6y ago

At least the last part seems to be right, doesn't it? As a user I love Airbnb, way cheaper and better than hotels, epsecially with a family.