4 ms·
I'm not sure they're densely populated enough to easily know which X multiplier to apply to the positive rate. People speculate infection rates as high as 10x,
by ineedasername 6y ago
I'm not sure they're densely populated enough to easily know which X multiplier to apply to the positive rate. People speculate infection rates as high as 10x, I would speculate that multipliers of that sort will be positively correlated with population density, meaning a lower multiplier rate and further from herd immunity.
- brewdad 6y agoI think small towns could still replicate some of the exposure risk caused by population density since there will often be only one or two stores to buy groceries, generally located in the largest town in a larger rural area. People will gather in those stores in relatively dense numbers compared to the community at large. Mix in a reluctance to wear masks and determining the correct multiplier becomes more challenging.
- ineedasername 6y agoExcept I don't think small towns represent small-world networks: they are likely to be clustered within themselves with just a few links outside.
- rossdavidh 6y agoI absolutely believe the multiplier would be different in different places. The fact that the back-of-the-envelope calculation for the U.S. and Slovakia give similar answers, though, suggests that it may not be so different. But sure, definitely no reason to expect it so be exactly the same.