4 ms·

A testament to how little we can see beyond the existing frontier of scientific and technological development. The slides depicting the mechanisation of work, c

A testament to how little we can see beyond the existing frontier of scientific and technological development. The slides depicting the mechanisation of work, chores and music are accurate enough, but automation has been a continuous trend elapsing over several hundred years - they simply extrapolated forward that which was already abundantly evident. But the futuristic automation of the future envisioned here is, of course, just the automation of nineteenth century technologies. Also, what's up with the pictures of humans riding sea creatures?!

oh_sigh 6y ago
And why would you go fishing for sea gulls?
cogman10 6y ago
> Also, what's up with the pictures of humans riding sea creatures?! Probably had a lot to do with 20000 leagues under the sea. I was actually surprised at how much flying was depicted. While blimps were a thing, the idea of an aircraft as pictured wasn't something that existed (AFAIK). You can see some of that with the fact that everyone just had wings and nothing else. However, there were a few propeller airplanes in the mix which somewhat surprised me. The other part I find fascinating is what they thought you COULD easily automate with mechanical means (like a barber, lol!) Some of it they hit right on the mark (like farming) others were way off on how easily they'd be automated. I also thought the automated band was simply funny. I'm sure we could do it today, but why? We'd rather digitally record and replay that 10000 times.
- derekp7 6y ago
  Weren't player pianos (and nickelodeons) a thing back then? Plus, if you've ever visited "House on the Rock" in Wisconsin the mechanical orchestras are pretty neat to watch.
- Jtsummers 6y ago
  A reason to have a band or orchestra versus recordings played over speakers is that there is a noticeable difference (though this also depends on the space being used) in sound. A recording is not the same as a live performance (whether by humans or robots).
- soperj 6y ago
  I went to a museum in the Netherlands full of various automated band builds, and some of them were incredible (also huge), but definitely a massive difference between hearing it live vs recording. I couldn't imagine what seeing of one these in the streets would be like back in the day.
- skocznymroczny 6y ago
  > Some of it they hit right on the mark (like farming) others were way off on how easily they'd be automated. I feel like many people here on HN are in the same spots. While ML has worked for few fields, there are some ML enthusiasts that believe most jobs, even creative ones will be automated within 10-20 years, which I find unlikely.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  Making music cheaper and more widely available at events was a big area of enterprise and innovation around the turn of the last century. I think the "automated band" refers to musical automation like player pianos and fairground organs. Today, you might still find them in vintage carousels. Another direction in making music cheaper was electric organs, such as the Hammond organ. In the first half of the 20th century, tens of thousands of American churches bought a Hammond organ as a cheaper alternative to bellows-driven organs. Here's a entertaining and popular video of a guy playing the bells and whistles on a fairground organ.[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5nHjCWl_Xg&t=1m18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5nHjCWl_Xg&t=1m18s
helen___keller 6y ago
> the futuristic automation of the future envisioned here is, of course, just the automation of nineteenth century technologies This is how I feel when people prophesize about super-intelligent AI. Sure, it could happen, and it could revolutionize society, but maybe we're just extrapolating outside the limits of what is feasible. Maybe the idea will seem quaint in 100 years when IT is a boring field and futurists have much more interesting fodder to work with.

oh_sigh 6y ago

And why would you go fishing for sea gulls?

cogman10 6y ago

> Also, what's up with the pictures of humans riding sea creatures?! Probably had a lot to do with 20000 leagues under the sea. I was actually surprised at how much flying was depicted. While blimps were a thing, the idea of an aircraft as pictured wasn't something that existed (AFAIK). You can see some of that with the fact that everyone just had wings and nothing else. However, there were a few propeller airplanes in the mix which somewhat surprised me. The other part I find fascinating is what they thought you COULD easily automate with mechanical means (like a barber, lol!) Some of it they hit right on the mark (like farming) others were way off on how easily they'd be automated. I also thought the automated band was simply funny. I'm sure we could do it today, but why? We'd rather digitally record and replay that 10000 times.

derekp7 6y ago
Weren't player pianos (and nickelodeons) a thing back then? Plus, if you've ever visited "House on the Rock" in Wisconsin the mechanical orchestras are pretty neat to watch.
Jtsummers 6y ago
A reason to have a band or orchestra versus recordings played over speakers is that there is a noticeable difference (though this also depends on the space being used) in sound. A recording is not the same as a live performance (whether by humans or robots).
soperj 6y ago
I went to a museum in the Netherlands full of various automated band builds, and some of them were incredible (also huge), but definitely a massive difference between hearing it live vs recording. I couldn't imagine what seeing of one these in the streets would be like back in the day.
skocznymroczny 6y ago
> Some of it they hit right on the mark (like farming) others were way off on how easily they'd be automated. I feel like many people here on HN are in the same spots. While ML has worked for few fields, there are some ML enthusiasts that believe most jobs, even creative ones will be automated within 10-20 years, which I find unlikely.
legerdemain 6y ago
Making music cheaper and more widely available at events was a big area of enterprise and innovation around the turn of the last century. I think the "automated band" refers to musical automation like player pianos and fairground organs. Today, you might still find them in vintage carousels. Another direction in making music cheaper was electric organs, such as the Hammond organ. In the first half of the 20th century, tens of thousands of American churches bought a Hammond organ as a cheaper alternative to bellows-driven organs. Here's a entertaining and popular video of a guy playing the bells and whistles on a fairground organ.[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5nHjCWl_Xg&t=1m18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5nHjCWl_Xg&t=1m18s

helen___keller 6y ago

> the futuristic automation of the future envisioned here is, of course, just the automation of nineteenth century technologies This is how I feel when people prophesize about super-intelligent AI. Sure, it could happen, and it could revolutionize society, but maybe we're just extrapolating outside the limits of what is feasible. Maybe the idea will seem quaint in 100 years when IT is a boring field and futurists have much more interesting fodder to work with.