Kinda. It's the difference in entropy, mostly driven by electron affinity. In the thermite reaction, the Fe-O bond is fairly strong - rust is quite stable. But

Kinda. It's the difference in entropy, mostly driven by electron affinity. In the thermite reaction, the Fe-O bond is fairly strong - rust is quite stable. But the Al-O bond is stronger. Hence once you kick it hard enough to break that FeO bond, it drives the reaction.