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I think your argument is that Zynga, essentially being a video game company like the other three you mentioned, can innovate itself out of the -ville space once

by yid 15y ago

I think your argument is that Zynga, essentially being a video game company like the other three you mentioned, can innovate itself out of the -ville space once people start getting bored out of it. While this is certainly possible, we haven't seen any hint of innovation from Zynga remotely at the level of Blizzard, etc. This makes their long term prospects questionable, and thus I would be wary of their IPO. I also would be extremely wary of a company that is so reliant on a fickle third party for its very existence. Unless of course all this Zynga exuberance is at the prospect of a Facebook buyout...

hugh3 15y ago
My argument isn't that they can, it's just that they'll have to. I don't see any particular reason to suppose that they actually will, though, and that's why I personally wouldn't touch this deal with a ten-foot pole. Unless of course all this Zynga exuberance is at the prospect of a Facebook buyout... Does facebook have enough cash to buy Zynga at these valuations? I doubt it. (But they do have programmers who could clone Cityville in two weeks, and the ability to ban Zynga from their system with a few keystrokes if they felt like it...)
- kmfrk 15y ago
  Another thing relevant to your argument is the brand value of the companies you mention. People initially buy Blizzard games, because they are Blizzard games. Will it ever be possible for a company like Zynga to do the same? I generally find it hard to promote the company brand in browser- or mobile-based games.
  - noahth 15y ago
    Zynga has proven their ability to cross-promote new games to their existing userbase again and again, most recently with FrontierVille and CityVille (although these games were - and still are - also bolstered by extensive advertising through Facebook ads, CPI campaigns, etc). They currently run 3 of the top 5 apps by MAU - CityVille, FrontierVille, & Texas HoldEm Poker, at about 90MM, 46MM, and 35MM MAU respectively. Even their "customer loyalty" Facebook Connect site (RewardVille) is a top-25 FB app (about 25MM MAU). In my own experience, it's also the only FB games company that most laypeople (people who neither work in tech/social games nor play Facebook games) recognize. It's hard to say whether they'll ever achieve the stature or reputation of a Blizzard, but I can't even think of many traditional game companies that enjoy the same type and intensity of customer loyalty that Blizzard does. Maybe Valve? Very few people buy every EA title but the Madden franchise has incredible loyalty... where does something like that fit into a comparison like this?

by yid 15y ago

hugh3 15y ago

My argument isn't that they can, it's just that they'll have to. I don't see any particular reason to suppose that they actually will, though, and that's why I personally wouldn't touch this deal with a ten-foot pole. Unless of course all this Zynga exuberance is at the prospect of a Facebook buyout... Does facebook have enough cash to buy Zynga at these valuations? I doubt it. (But they do have programmers who could clone Cityville in two weeks, and the ability to ban Zynga from their system with a few keystrokes if they felt like it...)

kmfrk 15y ago
Another thing relevant to your argument is the brand value of the companies you mention. People initially buy Blizzard games, because they are Blizzard games. Will it ever be possible for a company like Zynga to do the same? I generally find it hard to promote the company brand in browser- or mobile-based games.
- noahth 15y ago
  Zynga has proven their ability to cross-promote new games to their existing userbase again and again, most recently with FrontierVille and CityVille (although these games were - and still are - also bolstered by extensive advertising through Facebook ads, CPI campaigns, etc). They currently run 3 of the top 5 apps by MAU - CityVille, FrontierVille, & Texas HoldEm Poker, at about 90MM, 46MM, and 35MM MAU respectively. Even their "customer loyalty" Facebook Connect site (RewardVille) is a top-25 FB app (about 25MM MAU). In my own experience, it's also the only FB games company that most laypeople (people who neither work in tech/social games nor play Facebook games) recognize. It's hard to say whether they'll ever achieve the stature or reputation of a Blizzard, but I can't even think of many traditional game companies that enjoy the same type and intensity of customer loyalty that Blizzard does. Maybe Valve? Very few people buy every EA title but the Madden franchise has incredible loyalty... where does something like that fit into a comparison like this?