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> the ultimate in speculative assets You could've earned +10% ROI in 2020 by holding AUD instead of USD. Every currency is backed by thin air, including Bitcoi

• xondono 6y ago
  >You could've earned +10% ROI in 2020 by holding AUD instead of USD. And that would put you under the SP500 and the NASDAQ. Bitcoin in the same span did +286%. > You most likely utilize a credit card or bank card for your day-to-day transactions. Nothing would change about this with Bitcoin entering the picture. What’s the point of Bitcoin then? Because at the level of transactions Bitcoin can handle, we would have a bunch of central bank-like entities trading Bitcoin between themselves and a shit ton of intermediaries. > Just because governments couldn't conjure money out of thin air to finance war machines doesn't mean there will be peace on earth. But taking away the money tree from governments around the globe changes the game completely. That is not in any way a given. With all this intermediaries it’s not that hard to create “money out of thin air” through various schemes and leverage. If you don’t interface with the network directly, your supposed guarantees go out the window, fast. And the global network today can’t possibly handle the daily interactions in any big city.
  • atweiden 6y ago
    > And that would put you under the SP500 and the NASDAQ. Bitcoin in the same span did +286%. My point was that government-issued currency fluctuates in value, sometimes quite significantly. This underscores the fact currency is a speculative asset. > What’s the point of Bitcoin then? Because at the level of transactions Bitcoin can handle, we would have a bunch of central bank-like entities trading Bitcoin between themselves and a shit ton of intermediaries. Central banks wouldn't be able to debase their bitcoin via inflation, and money printing for political ends would grind to a halt. Meanwhile, the currency unit BTC would work in every country. I'd say that's a win over the status quo. > That is not in any way a given. With all this intermediaries it’s not that hard to create “money out of thin air” through various schemes and leverage. If those schemes inflated the BTC supply in the slightest, they'd instantly fork off the network. If banks decide to issue cash backed by BTC, it would trade at a discount compared to BTC proper given the inherent lack of assurances. And it would be competing against myriad L2 blockchain protocols designed to enhance transactional capacity. > If you don’t interface with the network directly, your supposed guarantees go out the window, fast. And the global network today can’t possibly handle the daily interactions in any big city. I don't have an issue with major credit card companies giving out BTC-denominated credit lines. IMO BTC is bound to become global reserve currency in any future where government issued ecurrency comes into the foray, and the private banking sector is bound to issue cash and credit lines backed by BTC.
    • tsimionescu 6y ago
      The very concept of a backing currency has become obsolete. Most money is not 'printed' directly by Central banks, it is instead printed by regular banks, who have been given the right to lend money they do not have, up to some limit. This would not be automatically changed by pegging the dollar to BTC or gold or anything else. As long as banks are allowed to lend value they do not own, nothing significant would change.
    • xondono 6y ago
      > My point was that government-issued currency fluctuates in value, sometimes quite significantly. This underscores the fact currency is a speculative asset. And mine is that as speculative assets go, currency is one of the lamest. Volatility is very limited, with most of the variation being caused by the relative closeness of the different currencies. > Central banks wouldn't be able to debase their bitcoin via inflation, and money printing for political ends would grind to a halt. Meanwhile, the currency unit BTC would work in every country. I'd say that's a win over the status quo. If those schemes inflated the BTC supply in the slightest, they'd instantly fork off the network. If banks decide to issue cash backed by BTC, it would trade at a discount compared to BTC proper given the inherent lack of assurances. And it would be competing against myriad L2 blockchain protocols designed to enhance transactional capacity. There’s a lot of untested and unstated assumptions there. Just to get started: - somehow governments will not agree to perfectly available schemes, like fractional reserve lending. Just by agreeing to save with tax money the lenders, governments can create sudden inflation by drastically reducing required reserves. - “inflation is a monetary phenomenon” == “printing is the only cause of inflation”. There’s more variables there, and some of them would be still in control of governments. There’s this general misunderstanding in Bitcoin believers that just because supply is limited, the price will stabilize. Picture this is scenario, governments create a tax on savings and use this to keep ever increasing reserves of BTC. As long as they have reserves, they still have monetary levers, but it’s the same for all countries, so supernational organizations will be the central-bank-like entities controlling the currency. > IMO BTC is bound to become global reserve currency in any future where government issued ecurrency comes into the foray, and the private banking sector is bound to issue cash and credit lines backed by BTC. Right now the whole crypto market is a self referencing speculative bubble. Most applications created deal with either creating new tokens or exchanging existing ones. I’m way too bearish on that until I see Bitcoin (or crypto in general) in the real economy.