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Signal will have very hard time competing as a product with WhatsApp. Their main value proposal is that they aren’t backed by Facebook, but other than that, th

Signal will have very hard time competing as a product with WhatsApp. Their main value proposal is that they aren’t backed by Facebook, but other than that, there’s no real difference to end user. That’s enough for geeks, but not very compelling argument to break to mainstream. To break into such a highly competitive market, they need more unique features. Or they can count on Facebook to keep on shooting themselves into foot, which is possible, but historically risky bet (no matter what HN crowd says, they continue to be extremely successful and know how to grow products).

mft_ 6y ago
Not sure about this - I’ve seen more acquaintances install Signal in the past two weeks than the previous two years. What (I suspect) will work is something providing enough of an incentive for enough people to install it to then provide a network effect which is self-sustaining. The recent coverage about WhatsApp/Insta/FB’s egregious data collection (thanks to Apple) plus the high profile recommendations of Signal have had quite the effect; time will tell if it’s enough.
- justapassenger 6y ago
  They get great PR right now. They should utilize this moment as much as possible, but it won’t last for more than maybe few more weeks (it’s already fading away). Network effects are hugely important, but they aren’t enough. Even if you have most of your social graph on both signal and WhatsApp, you need to not only change your habits, but also outages and bugs will quickly scare you away. And there’s tons of subtle tweaks that are done to keep you more sticky to one app. Big tech isn’t usually that scared of other apps trying to do the same things as they do successfully. They’re scared of new paradigms that they can miss the boat on, and you can see that in what acquisitions they do. They don’t pay big bucks for copies of their services, but for new ideas that can be/are taking off.
hiq 6y ago
> Signal will have very hard time competing as a product with WhatsApp. You seem to assume that they want to be bigger than WhatsApp, but as a non-profit I don't think that's their goal. Their goal is (broadly) to secure most communication in a privacy-preserving way. If WhatsApp does it because of the pressure from Signal, it's also a win for them (again as a non-profit).

mft_ 6y ago

Not sure about this - I’ve seen more acquaintances install Signal in the past two weeks than the previous two years. What (I suspect) will work is something providing enough of an incentive for enough people to install it to then provide a network effect which is self-sustaining. The recent coverage about WhatsApp/Insta/FB’s egregious data collection (thanks to Apple) plus the high profile recommendations of Signal have had quite the effect; time will tell if it’s enough.

justapassenger 6y ago
They get great PR right now. They should utilize this moment as much as possible, but it won’t last for more than maybe few more weeks (it’s already fading away). Network effects are hugely important, but they aren’t enough. Even if you have most of your social graph on both signal and WhatsApp, you need to not only change your habits, but also outages and bugs will quickly scare you away. And there’s tons of subtle tweaks that are done to keep you more sticky to one app. Big tech isn’t usually that scared of other apps trying to do the same things as they do successfully. They’re scared of new paradigms that they can miss the boat on, and you can see that in what acquisitions they do. They don’t pay big bucks for copies of their services, but for new ideas that can be/are taking off.

hiq 6y ago

> Signal will have very hard time competing as a product with WhatsApp. You seem to assume that they want to be bigger than WhatsApp, but as a non-profit I don't think that's their goal. Their goal is (broadly) to secure most communication in a privacy-preserving way. If WhatsApp does it because of the pressure from Signal, it's also a win for them (again as a non-profit).