3 ms·
Eh no? The paper basically IS a great filter argument. Life is rare and we are alone. That means there is a great filter behind us.
by sanxiyn 6y ago
Eh no? The paper basically IS a great filter argument. Life is rare and we are alone. That means there is a great filter behind us.
- shiftingleft 6y agoFrom the website: "The Great Silence implies that one or more of these steps are very improbable; there is a "Great Filter"" The paper argues against this in that you don't need a few very improbable. In fact, there are many parameter choices where none of the probabilities in the Drake equation are particularly low, yet the resulting number of intelligences is still staggeringly small. tl;dr: All parameters can be a bit lower. Then you don't need any events that are extremely improbable.
- rytill 6y agoBut one of the events must be the least likely. And why would it not be significantly less likely than the next least likely event, given that they are uncorrelated?