4 ms·

I love the theory of Great Filters. I'm pretty sure that #9 on the list should be "social media", though. Or in general, "self destructing human behavior."

short_sells_poo 6y ago
I have absolutely no education on the subject and have done almost zero research, but I wonder if this "Self Destructive Behavior of Humans" is merely the evolutionary local optimum of tribal behavior. Historically, it has been an advantage to have a strongly tribal drive. Cohesive groups achieved much more than individuals and yet were small enough that they could effectively self-police and agree on common goals. However, as the capabilities of each tribe increased and the world became smaller through travel (and now the internet), tribalism, us-versus-them still remain part of our basic instincts and subconscious, however it is now the source of international and high powered conflicts. 10000 years ago, our tribal programming resulted in the survival of a group of families and the development of townships and emergence of societies. If a tribe got particularly bloodthirsty, their impact was almost purely local and perhaps eventually their notoriety resulted in a decline. Now, sticks and stones have been replaced by nuclear weapons and ICBMs. A first strike capability is no longer dangerous to just one village, but entire continents. Perhaps our technological evolution has outpaced our biological and social evolution, and the behavior that was optimal even 1000 years ago is now a grave danger?
- hotstickyballs 6y ago
  This makes a lot of sense. Any intelligent organism will have to overcome the biological local optima that brought it to the intelligent state before further developing as a species. We already have explored a variety options, each with their own advantages and downsides: 1. Free individuals in a distributed system in a cottage industry economy. 2. Semi-free individuals who gather in tribes formed around value-generation (i.e. corporations). 3. Centralized system with individuals who are assigned functions. Future progress will have to be technological and will change what it means to operate in the afore-mentioned scenarios 1,2,3.
- slfnflctd 6y ago
  This resonates with me. I've long said that if we are to launch any kind of significant space-faring civilization, we will need to some extent to become a different species, through cybernetics & drugs or genetic engineering (probably a mix). Our current biggest challenge is to make ourselves 'smarter' (i.e. less susceptible to the biases baked into our DNA). Otherwise, it's likely only a matter of time before we cripple ourselves into an extended Dark Age or worse. Constant setbacks resulting from too many of us having ignorant, emotional reactions to incomplete stories with insufficient facts means we're all dancing on shifting sand. It's not a good foundation upon which to build a durable interstellar civilization.
JohnJamesRambo 6y ago
When I was a kid ignorant people kept their thoughts in their heads safe and tucked away or maybe told a few people near them that knew better. Now they let them out on social media where they can find other ill-informed people and reinforce one another. I don’t know a way around this filter step. Maybe it naturally will resolve. As Stewart Brand said, information wants to be free. I will be optimistic enough to believe that means correct information. The science and empathy just isn’t well distributed yet. “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.” -William Gibson
- im3w1l 6y ago
  Religion is on the decline.
  - dane-pgp 6y ago
    Perhaps that explains why people are increasingly adopting dangerous secular myths, such as those about vaccines and the Deep State.
    - Shaanie 6y ago
      Seems unlikely, if that was the case then wouldn't you expect such things to be much more common in largely secular countries than the US?
  - Reedx 6y ago
    I think it's just changing form. Old religions being replaced by new religions. Old priests with new priests. Old gods with new gods.
- nullc 6y ago
  "Information wants to be free" is a physical law, not a moral rallying cry. In many cases the promiscuous nature of information works heavily against human welfare. One aspect of that is that incorrect information spreads as well -- sometimes better-- than correct information.
- 6y ago
rriepe 6y ago
One that seems obvious to me (but others cheer for) is curing aging.
dane-pgp 6y ago
> Or in general, "self destructing human behavior." That is definitely a credible theory, and it's currently catalogued as number 2.2 on Wikipedia's list of hypothetical explanations for the Fermi Paradox, where it is given the haunting title: "It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_itself https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature...

short_sells_poo 6y ago

I have absolutely no education on the subject and have done almost zero research, but I wonder if this "Self Destructive Behavior of Humans" is merely the evolutionary local optimum of tribal behavior. Historically, it has been an advantage to have a strongly tribal drive. Cohesive groups achieved much more than individuals and yet were small enough that they could effectively self-police and agree on common goals. However, as the capabilities of each tribe increased and the world became smaller through travel (and now the internet), tribalism, us-versus-them still remain part of our basic instincts and subconscious, however it is now the source of international and high powered conflicts. 10000 years ago, our tribal programming resulted in the survival of a group of families and the development of townships and emergence of societies. If a tribe got particularly bloodthirsty, their impact was almost purely local and perhaps eventually their notoriety resulted in a decline. Now, sticks and stones have been replaced by nuclear weapons and ICBMs. A first strike capability is no longer dangerous to just one village, but entire continents. Perhaps our technological evolution has outpaced our biological and social evolution, and the behavior that was optimal even 1000 years ago is now a grave danger?

hotstickyballs 6y ago
This makes a lot of sense. Any intelligent organism will have to overcome the biological local optima that brought it to the intelligent state before further developing as a species. We already have explored a variety options, each with their own advantages and downsides: 1. Free individuals in a distributed system in a cottage industry economy. 2. Semi-free individuals who gather in tribes formed around value-generation (i.e. corporations). 3. Centralized system with individuals who are assigned functions. Future progress will have to be technological and will change what it means to operate in the afore-mentioned scenarios 1,2,3.
slfnflctd 6y ago
This resonates with me. I've long said that if we are to launch any kind of significant space-faring civilization, we will need to some extent to become a different species, through cybernetics & drugs or genetic engineering (probably a mix). Our current biggest challenge is to make ourselves 'smarter' (i.e. less susceptible to the biases baked into our DNA). Otherwise, it's likely only a matter of time before we cripple ourselves into an extended Dark Age or worse. Constant setbacks resulting from too many of us having ignorant, emotional reactions to incomplete stories with insufficient facts means we're all dancing on shifting sand. It's not a good foundation upon which to build a durable interstellar civilization.

JohnJamesRambo 6y ago

When I was a kid ignorant people kept their thoughts in their heads safe and tucked away or maybe told a few people near them that knew better. Now they let them out on social media where they can find other ill-informed people and reinforce one another. I don’t know a way around this filter step. Maybe it naturally will resolve. As Stewart Brand said, information wants to be free. I will be optimistic enough to believe that means correct information. The science and empathy just isn’t well distributed yet. “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.” -William Gibson

im3w1l 6y ago
Religion is on the decline.
- dane-pgp 6y ago
  Perhaps that explains why people are increasingly adopting dangerous secular myths, such as those about vaccines and the Deep State.
  - Shaanie 6y ago
    Seems unlikely, if that was the case then wouldn't you expect such things to be much more common in largely secular countries than the US?
- Reedx 6y ago
  I think it's just changing form. Old religions being replaced by new religions. Old priests with new priests. Old gods with new gods.
nullc 6y ago
"Information wants to be free" is a physical law, not a moral rallying cry. In many cases the promiscuous nature of information works heavily against human welfare. One aspect of that is that incorrect information spreads as well -- sometimes better-- than correct information.
6y ago

rriepe 6y ago

One that seems obvious to me (but others cheer for) is curing aging.

dane-pgp 6y ago

> Or in general, "self destructing human behavior." That is definitely a credible theory, and it's currently catalogued as number 2.2 on Wikipedia's list of hypothetical explanations for the Fermi Paradox, where it is given the haunting title: "It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_itself https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature...