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The only market left unchallenged for Intel/AMD is the consumer dektop / gaming. If Samsung / Qualcomm/ Mediatek make a new motherboard design and introduce a n

The only market left unchallenged for Intel/AMD is the consumer dektop / gaming. If Samsung / Qualcomm/ Mediatek make a new motherboard design and introduce a new ARM cpu with double the single core performance (M1 showed that this is not science fiction), then the x86 folks are in deep trouble.

bhouston 6y ago
Cloud isn’t really challenged yet and is the most lucrative market for Intel, just minor inroads from fairly slow arm chips. The problem is single core Arm performance outside of Apple chips isn’t there. I wonder how long that will take to change? Honestly it would be brilliant for Apple to start offering Mx cpus in the cloud at affordable rates to the various cloud providers.
- giantrobot 6y ago
  I think Intel/AMD's cloud presence is definitely getting challenged by ARM and it's momentum is just increasing. A lot of cloud workloads are not CPU bound. More often they're IO bound. Amazon's Graviton2 and Ampere's Altra are tackling that IO bound space. They have dozens of single thread cores, lots of memory channels, and lots of PCI Express lanes (64 and 128 respectively IIRC). They're not slouches in CPU power but their IO is really impressive. Having high power and high bandwidth chips at a fraction of the power of Xeons is a win for cloud providers. They can either get higher density in the same power/cooling envelope or reduce their power/cooling requirements for the same capacity. At cloud provider scale power is a major cost driver.
- ksec 6y ago
  >Cloud isn’t really challenged yet.... AWS are estimated to be ~50% of HyperScalers. HyperScalers are estimated to be 50% of Server and Cloud Business. HyperScalers are expanding at a rate faster than other market. HyperScaler expanding trend are not projected to be slowing down anytime soon. AWS intends to have all of their own workload and SaaS product running on Graviton / ARM. ( While still providing x86 services to those who needs it ) Google and Microsoft are already gearing up their own ARM offering. Partly confirmed by Marvell's exit of ARM Server. >The problem is single core Arm performance outside of Apple chips isn’t there. Cloud computing charges per vCPU. On all current x86 instances, that is one hyper-thread. On AWS Graviton, vCPU = Actual CPU Core. There are plenty of workloads, and large customers like Twitter and Pinterest has tested and shown AWS Graviton 2 vCPU perform better than x86. All while being 30% cheaper. At the end of the day, it is workload / dollars that matters on Cloud computing. And right now in lots of applications Graviton 2 are winning, and in some cases by large margin. If AWS sell 50% of their services with ARM in 5 years time, that is 25% of Cloud Business Alone. Since it offer a huge competitive advantage Google and Microsoft has no other choice but to join the race. And then there will be enough of a market force for Qualcomm, or may be Marvell to Fab a commodity ARM Server part for the rest of the market. Which is why I was extremely worried about Intel. The lucrative Server market is basically gone. ( And I haven't factored in AMD yet ) 5 years in Tech hardware is basically 1-2 cycles. And there is nothing on Intel's roadmap that shown they have the chance to compete apart from marketing and sales tactics. Which still goes a long way if I have to be honest, but not sustainable in long term. It is more of a delaying tactics. Along with a CEO that despite trying very hard, had no experience in market and product business. Luckily that is about to change. Evaluating ARM switch takes time, Software preparation takes time, and more importantly, getting wafer from TSMC takes time as demand from all market are exceeding expectations. But all of them are already in motion, and if these are the kind of response you get from Graviton 2, imagine Graviton 3.
  - bhouston 6y ago
    This is very informative. I guess I haven't seen any numbers yet to show that Graviton 2 is truly taking off. Thank you!
- Const-me 6y ago
  > Cloud isn’t really challenged yet People I work with test my software on MS Azure cloud VM with some recent AMD Epyc CPU. > for Apple to start offering Mx cpus in the cloud at affordable rates Large part how these Apple's ARM chips are so fast is integration. Just removing DDR4 wires improves memory latency by multiple CPU cycles due to speed of signal in copper. For servers you probably wouldn't want integration, you'd want DIMMs to replace just the failed parts, with ECC.
  - PedroBatista 6y ago
    It depends, if you get a system for 50% less and can cram 100% more hosts in it you’ll happily replace those boards.
    - Const-me 6y ago
      Depends on the server. Some server software can be easily scaled horizontally. For them what you proposed indeed can be a good deal. Other things, like RDBMS servers, can’t do that or at least not so easy. For them you actually want loads or RAM in the servers. I don’t think it’s practical to manufacture SOCs with hundreds of GB of DDR4 in the package. The package gets too large, also economy of scale is not that great compared to phones or laptops.
      - bhouston 6y ago
        I think the 16GB on SOC ram then just becomes a huge L3 cache. Or you just have NUMA?

bhouston 6y ago

Cloud isn’t really challenged yet and is the most lucrative market for Intel, just minor inroads from fairly slow arm chips. The problem is single core Arm performance outside of Apple chips isn’t there. I wonder how long that will take to change? Honestly it would be brilliant for Apple to start offering Mx cpus in the cloud at affordable rates to the various cloud providers.

giantrobot 6y ago
I think Intel/AMD's cloud presence is definitely getting challenged by ARM and it's momentum is just increasing. A lot of cloud workloads are not CPU bound. More often they're IO bound. Amazon's Graviton2 and Ampere's Altra are tackling that IO bound space. They have dozens of single thread cores, lots of memory channels, and lots of PCI Express lanes (64 and 128 respectively IIRC). They're not slouches in CPU power but their IO is really impressive. Having high power and high bandwidth chips at a fraction of the power of Xeons is a win for cloud providers. They can either get higher density in the same power/cooling envelope or reduce their power/cooling requirements for the same capacity. At cloud provider scale power is a major cost driver.
ksec 6y ago
>Cloud isn’t really challenged yet.... AWS are estimated to be ~50% of HyperScalers. HyperScalers are estimated to be 50% of Server and Cloud Business. HyperScalers are expanding at a rate faster than other market. HyperScaler expanding trend are not projected to be slowing down anytime soon. AWS intends to have all of their own workload and SaaS product running on Graviton / ARM. ( While still providing x86 services to those who needs it ) Google and Microsoft are already gearing up their own ARM offering. Partly confirmed by Marvell's exit of ARM Server. >The problem is single core Arm performance outside of Apple chips isn’t there. Cloud computing charges per vCPU. On all current x86 instances, that is one hyper-thread. On AWS Graviton, vCPU = Actual CPU Core. There are plenty of workloads, and large customers like Twitter and Pinterest has tested and shown AWS Graviton 2 vCPU perform better than x86. All while being 30% cheaper. At the end of the day, it is workload / dollars that matters on Cloud computing. And right now in lots of applications Graviton 2 are winning, and in some cases by large margin. If AWS sell 50% of their services with ARM in 5 years time, that is 25% of Cloud Business Alone. Since it offer a huge competitive advantage Google and Microsoft has no other choice but to join the race. And then there will be enough of a market force for Qualcomm, or may be Marvell to Fab a commodity ARM Server part for the rest of the market. Which is why I was extremely worried about Intel. The lucrative Server market is basically gone. ( And I haven't factored in AMD yet ) 5 years in Tech hardware is basically 1-2 cycles. And there is nothing on Intel's roadmap that shown they have the chance to compete apart from marketing and sales tactics. Which still goes a long way if I have to be honest, but not sustainable in long term. It is more of a delaying tactics. Along with a CEO that despite trying very hard, had no experience in market and product business. Luckily that is about to change. Evaluating ARM switch takes time, Software preparation takes time, and more importantly, getting wafer from TSMC takes time as demand from all market are exceeding expectations. But all of them are already in motion, and if these are the kind of response you get from Graviton 2, imagine Graviton 3.
- bhouston 6y ago
  This is very informative. I guess I haven't seen any numbers yet to show that Graviton 2 is truly taking off. Thank you!
Const-me 6y ago
> Cloud isn’t really challenged yet People I work with test my software on MS Azure cloud VM with some recent AMD Epyc CPU. > for Apple to start offering Mx cpus in the cloud at affordable rates Large part how these Apple's ARM chips are so fast is integration. Just removing DDR4 wires improves memory latency by multiple CPU cycles due to speed of signal in copper. For servers you probably wouldn't want integration, you'd want DIMMs to replace just the failed parts, with ECC.
- PedroBatista 6y ago
  It depends, if you get a system for 50% less and can cram 100% more hosts in it you’ll happily replace those boards.
  - Const-me 6y ago
    Depends on the server. Some server software can be easily scaled horizontally. For them what you proposed indeed can be a good deal. Other things, like RDBMS servers, can’t do that or at least not so easy. For them you actually want loads or RAM in the servers. I don’t think it’s practical to manufacture SOCs with hundreds of GB of DDR4 in the package. The package gets too large, also economy of scale is not that great compared to phones or laptops.
    - bhouston 6y ago
      I think the 16GB on SOC ram then just becomes a huge L3 cache. Or you just have NUMA?