4 ms·
So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]:
by ajju 15y ago
So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]:
– Increased reliance on prisons
– Increased number of police
– The bursting of the crack bubble
– The legalization of abortion
The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlate with the recent drop in crime. It's unlikely the number of police have increased, given the recession. Instead of, or in addition to, crack, I am assuming you may have to consider other drugs like Meth (?).
Levitt et al. also presented evidence that a strong economy does not cause a drop in crime, so the challenge to that thesis, mentioned in the NYT article, is not new.
[1] http://www.freakonomics.com/2006/03/16/lets-do-the-crime-drop-again/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2006/03/16/lets-do-the-crime-dro...
- rubashov 15y agoThe abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation. http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are. The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technology has made it way harder to do much bad stuff without getting caught. Cell phones and surveillance cameras and better police tech make crime much riskier than it was. I also suspect everybody's fatter, older, and more couch-potato than they used to be. Obese slobs with 200 channels are too lazy to go gang-banging.
- chrismealy 15y agoThat dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.
- pragmatic 15y agoI don't know anything about this guy. However when you say "[t]hat dude is a hardcore racist" you're making a very strong claim about his character. Could you point us to some evidence of your claim?
- ajju 15y agoI don't want to debate about whether some random Internet person I first heard about today is racist, but I was curious enough to Google it and found this wikipedia article describing the author of iSteve.com. It may help provide some context to claims made by the parent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer
- dminor 15y agoHe has his very own wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer
- rsheridan6 15y agoWhich has fuck all to do with the subject at hand, which was the relationship between abortion and crime.
- ajju 15y agoLet's try to keep this civil.
- rubashov 15y agoRandomly screaming "racist" is the height of incivility.
- ajju 15y agoAgreed that the ad hominem implication to the commenter was unnecessary.
- rsheridan6 15y agoI am. Vaguely threatening to label another commenter a racist for citing an argument by Steve Sailer that had nothing to do with race was far less civil than anything I said.
- ajju 15y agoYes I agree, his point that there are better sources could have been made without the ad hominem implication. I also think profanity doesn't help civility.
- rsheridan6 15y ago"Fuck all" is just a slightly course way of saying "nothing." It's not an insult directed at a person. pg himself has used the word "fuck" on this board [1], so I assume it's not necessarily proscribed. We're all adults here - at least I proceed on that assumption. [1] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1766387 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1766387
- ajju 15y agoThere are better sources for a counter-argument than Steve Sailer I think, although even Sailer attributes the decline to a stronger effect of the Crack crack-down, if Wikipedia is to be believed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortion_on_Crime#Criticism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortio...
- jobu 15y agoThey've also mentioned the removal of lead from paint and gasoline: http://www.freakonomics.com/2007/07/09/lead-and-crime/ http://www.freakonomics.com/2007/07/09/lead-and-crime/