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Sorry, but this comment is wrong on every level. First: that is very much not how prices work. If everyone else stayed on the sidelines and did not sell or buy

Sorry, but this comment is wrong on every level. First: that is very much not how prices work. If everyone else stayed on the sidelines and did not sell or buy any Bitcoin, the price could be set by two people - one buyer and one seller. Second: you have no way to know who bought BTC. You can get a guess from various media, but you can never truly know. Large amounts of Bitcoin frequently change hands in entirely private transactions. Lots of volume is on shady exchanges, and of the volume on legitimate exchanges - what's to say that those are all "HODLERS"? I have no idea what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future, but your comment is definitely not correct - downside risk is certainly not limited by the type of people who bought in.

thorwasdfasdf 6y ago
What you're saying is only partially correct. Imagine if everyone stayed on the sidelines and did not sell any bitcoin (the HODLRS), as the number of sellers continues to diminish more and more and more, this puts upward pressure on bitcoin as the percentage of buyers outnumber the selllers more and more. It's like trying to buy a house in the bay area. there's very few people who can afford to buy a bay area house but there's even fewer houses for sale and so the prices keep going up and up and up. What matters is the ratio of buyers to sellers. and once you run out of sellers, the price starts going up again.
- owenversteeg 6y ago
  No, what I said was entirely correct. I did not say "if everyone did not sell any Bitcoin", I said "if everyone did not sell or buy any Bitcoin". I'd also like to point out that you do not need to own Bitcoin to sell Bitcoin. If you believe the price of Bitcoin will be lower in the future, you can borrow Bitcoin and sell it now, also know as "selling short", or "shorting". You can, of course, also borrow Bitcoin and not sell it. I would also like to mention - if you truly believe that you can forecast future prices based on the psychology of recent buyers, you can make lots of money. There are a number of regulated markets where the buyers (or at least a decent portion of them) -are- known, so if you feel that you can do this, be my guest and become the next Warren Buffett. Finally, Bitcoin is entirely unlike Bay Area property. You cannot generate Bay Area property out of thin air using computers, there are no schemes being investigated for printing billions of fake dollars to buy up Bay Area property, and it is far less liquid than Bitcoin. The price of Bay Area property also does not double in a month.

thorwasdfasdf 6y ago

What you're saying is only partially correct. Imagine if everyone stayed on the sidelines and did not sell any bitcoin (the HODLRS), as the number of sellers continues to diminish more and more and more, this puts upward pressure on bitcoin as the percentage of buyers outnumber the selllers more and more. It's like trying to buy a house in the bay area. there's very few people who can afford to buy a bay area house but there's even fewer houses for sale and so the prices keep going up and up and up. What matters is the ratio of buyers to sellers. and once you run out of sellers, the price starts going up again.

owenversteeg 6y ago
No, what I said was entirely correct. I did not say "if everyone did not sell any Bitcoin", I said "if everyone did not sell or buy any Bitcoin". I'd also like to point out that you do not need to own Bitcoin to sell Bitcoin. If you believe the price of Bitcoin will be lower in the future, you can borrow Bitcoin and sell it now, also know as "selling short", or "shorting". You can, of course, also borrow Bitcoin and not sell it. I would also like to mention - if you truly believe that you can forecast future prices based on the psychology of recent buyers, you can make lots of money. There are a number of regulated markets where the buyers (or at least a decent portion of them) -are- known, so if you feel that you can do this, be my guest and become the next Warren Buffett. Finally, Bitcoin is entirely unlike Bay Area property. You cannot generate Bay Area property out of thin air using computers, there are no schemes being investigated for printing billions of fake dollars to buy up Bay Area property, and it is far less liquid than Bitcoin. The price of Bay Area property also does not double in a month.