3 ms·

Kuo has a remarkable track record of being right, but he's not perfect. Currently he's ~78.2% accurate. https://appletrack.org/ming-chi-kuo/ https://appletrack

Kuo has a remarkable track record of being right, but he's not perfect. Currently he's ~78.2% accurate. https://appletrack.org/ming-chi-kuo/ https://appletrack.org/ming-chi-kuo/

hajile 6y ago
Looking through that list, there's several predictions about late 2020 that didn't happen and most predictions he's made were far enough out to still be pending. In addition, lots of "correct guesses" were pretty basic things. Not saying this won't come to be, but his actual accuracy where it counts seems much lower than indicated.
ksec 6y ago
In his defence I would say that is pretty close to perfect. His sources isn't some made up contact from within Apple like all those Youtubers, or leaks from China WeiBo and then turn into some news. His sources are from Supply Chain, and if you look at it from that perspective it has been pretty dead accurate. For Example, most of his Red ( Wrong ) are either Apple Release Date, or Pricing. Both are those are unpredictable by Supply Chain. Apple could change their pricing strategy at any min. But those Release Date and Pricing were derived from possible Production Schedule and Total BOM cost reduction. Both have been insanely accurate. There are other derived conclusion. Like Longer battery life, which was derived from having lager Battery capacity and better Display energy efficiency, except Apple implemented other features so battery life stays flat. Things like iPhone having same water resistance, from his point of view none of the water resistance steps had any make over. So no change in water resistance from 2018 were exactly correct. It is just that Apple felt confidence enough the same process could now be advertise with better water resistance capacity. i.e They were too conservative with the iPhone XS water resistance claim. Not even sure why Pro Display XDR going Mini-LED in 2019 is suggested as wrong either. Of course there are things he would be wrong. Especially those small volume products. With iPhone you cant really hide, after all there are hundreds of companies working to make sure a product shipping a 100M unit annual volume. Leaks in supply chain are bound to happen.

Kuo has a remarkable track record of being right, but he's not perfect. Currently he's ~78.2% accurate. https://appletrack.org/ming-chi-kuo/ https://appletrack.org/ming-chi-kuo/

hajile 6y ago

Looking through that list, there's several predictions about late 2020 that didn't happen and most predictions he's made were far enough out to still be pending. In addition, lots of "correct guesses" were pretty basic things. Not saying this won't come to be, but his actual accuracy where it counts seems much lower than indicated.

ksec 6y ago

In his defence I would say that is pretty close to perfect. His sources isn't some made up contact from within Apple like all those Youtubers, or leaks from China WeiBo and then turn into some news. His sources are from Supply Chain, and if you look at it from that perspective it has been pretty dead accurate. For Example, most of his Red ( Wrong ) are either Apple Release Date, or Pricing. Both are those are unpredictable by Supply Chain. Apple could change their pricing strategy at any min. But those Release Date and Pricing were derived from possible Production Schedule and Total BOM cost reduction. Both have been insanely accurate. There are other derived conclusion. Like Longer battery life, which was derived from having lager Battery capacity and better Display energy efficiency, except Apple implemented other features so battery life stays flat. Things like iPhone having same water resistance, from his point of view none of the water resistance steps had any make over. So no change in water resistance from 2018 were exactly correct. It is just that Apple felt confidence enough the same process could now be advertise with better water resistance capacity. i.e They were too conservative with the iPhone XS water resistance claim. Not even sure why Pro Display XDR going Mini-LED in 2019 is suggested as wrong either. Of course there are things he would be wrong. Especially those small volume products. With iPhone you cant really hide, after all there are hundreds of companies working to make sure a product shipping a 100M unit annual volume. Leaks in supply chain are bound to happen.