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Tether will almost certainly collapse, and then you'll have a lot of bitcoin chasing very few dollars. There is likely to be a stampede for dollars, which becom
by maxbond 6y ago
Tether will almost certainly collapse, and then you'll have a lot of bitcoin chasing very few dollars. There is likely to be a stampede for dollars, which becomes a vicious cycle deflating the price of Bitcoin - the liquidity is consumed (Bitfinex is printing Tether because there aren't enough dollars to go around at unbanked exchanges, afterall) at the same time the downward volatility dramatically increases the perception of Bitcoin's risk; market makers start heading for the door; the cost of liquidity becomes massive.
There's some magic number for the price of Bitcoin, and it's hard to say what it is, where the miners start to lose money. If it stays too cheap for too long, it puts pressure on the miners to either switch to other coins or get out of the game entirely.
Things could get very bad, very quick. The only reason I don't have a bearish position in Bitcoin is that I can't find a counterparty that a.) I can afford at my account size (eg not CME) and b.) that I'm confident will still be around after this crash.
Stay cautious. Happy trading.
- leppr 6y agoThere are some Defi options on Ethereum that could allow you to short BTC with a USDC [1] collateral, like dYdX [2]. You would need to keep a small amount of ETH to operate the smart contracts, which could fluctuate in dollar value, but even after a black swan event, there's no reason that this decentralized infrastructure would not still be running, allowing you to redeem the USDC to real dollars. [1] Circle dollars, 1:1 backed stablecoin from a well regulated issuer. [2] https://trade.dydx.exchange/perpetual/BTC-USD https://trade.dydx.exchange/perpetual/BTC-USD
- maxbond 6y agoI appreciate the idea, but I neglected to mention (c) is legal in the US. Speculating on bubbles is just out of my league, and I'm okay with that.